“Tenuous Recovery”

Report: 1 to 15 October 2021

This report is also available in Arabic.

The World Bank during a press conference spoke about the dangers of corona and how it is still stalling progress in the region. Photo: Sawt Beirut.  

According to the World Bank, the Middle East is heading towards a ‘tenuous’ recovery stage as the pandemic continues to hit the region hard. It warned that if newer and deadlier variants of corona appear in the region, previous projections of growth will be scrapped. The organization also warned that political instability in the region could also deter recovery.

The socio-economic situation

Egypt

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-210,489 corona confirmed cases

-159,999 recovered

-12,445 deaths

With the corona still affecting its Economy, progress has been a bit slower than expected. Photo credit: Arab News.

Recently, the World Bank raised its forecasts for Egypt’s real GDP growth for 2021 to 5.5 percent, up from 4.5 percent predicted in June before hitting 6 percent in 2022. The organization also indicated that Egypt is doing a lot better than oil-producing countries, thus proving to the world that a diversified economy can deliver better results. Seeing that Egypt is actually benefitting from the international support and advice by world agencies, the US approved 300 million dollars for the Egyptian-American Enterprise Fund (EAEF), to provide direct investments, loans, technical assistance, and other forms of support to help stimulate private-sector investment.  On a similar note, the UAE announced several investment opportunities in Egypt which will strengthen cooperation.

The World Bank however, also claimed that Egypt may not achieve the intended results as the corona pandemic continues to slow down progress. 9.2 percent of Egyptians have so far received at least the first dose of vaccination, leaving the country vulnerable to the pandemic. Also, the tight fiscal policy which was carried out by the Egyptian government throughout the pandemic, did do much to help Egypt.

Jordan

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-665, 735 corona confirmed cases

-596,293 recovered

-7773 deaths

Under the guise of the new leadership in the US, Jordan is attempting to increase international cooperation.

In its attempt to normalize relations with Jordan, and in response to the new change in policy within the US administration, Syria declared that it will be repairing a damaged electricity cable, linking the two countries. As such, Jordan is also keen on developing economic ties with its neighbor for the positive economic effects. After all, Jordan is just another ME country trying to maneuver through various political shifts, economic disturbances, and pandemics. In terms of international cooperation, Jordan is currently in talks with Denmark to advance economic and development cooperation. The two sides also discussed the importance of supporting the Kingdom’s economy through investment and boosting trade between the two countries.

Iraq

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-924,946 corona confirmed cases

-814,853 recovered

-14,713 deaths

Iraq signs 1.5 GW solar deals with UAE's Masdar, Norway-led consortium. https://www.arabnews.com/.

The city of Ramadi, a city known for its luxurious hotels and resorts, and for the devastation the war had inflicted on it, is witnessing a construction boom. By restoring this city to its formal self, Iraq is hoping that Ramadi would become a beacon of hope or symbol that would herald additional reconstruction efforts for the rest of the country. However, many sceptics have automatically assumed that this is nothing but ‘smoke and mirrors’ as key figures are promising great results to get re-elected in October. Whether such is true or not, the country seems to be carrying out projects especially in the energy sector. For instance, Iraq signed a deal with a Norwegian-led consortium to build two solar power plants. It is said that the two plants will deliver 525 megawatts, that can help alleviate the severe energy crisis and chronic power cuts that feed social discontent.

Lebanon

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-496,846 corona confirmed cases

-402172 recovered

-6661 deaths

A picture of Helene Gergi, an old woman living in central Beirut, where power is only intermittently available, usually for two- to four-hour periods.

According to various news agencies, dialogue between the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the Lebanese government is set to continue, after being stalled for over a year. Even the IMF’s spokesman  for the MENA region publicly confirmed so. Unfortunately, the IMF is not willing to make a charity case out of Lebanon; the international organization wants the country to formulate a clear economic recovery plan. Given Lebanon’s track record in not doing anything and dumping the blame on others, the New Prime Minister Mr. Najib Mikati, vowed to also improve the government with banks and the financial sector given that the former PM Hassan Diab was in total confrontation with the banking sector. Regardless of the new PM’s real intent, Lebanon is still in a desperate situation and devloping a plan that would witness the implementation of anti-corruption measures seems like a long shot. Even covering the central bank’s losses which have ammounted to 55 billion USD, seems impossible.

Palestine

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-268132 corona confirmed cases

-232960 recovered

-2860 deaths

Palestine economy more vulnerable than ever, photo credit: Financial Tribune. 

Despite the easing of Israeli restrictions and the previously declared intentions to harmonize relationship with the Palestinian authority, citizens on the ground are fearing worsening economic conditions especially when people’s properties and businesses have not been fully rehabilitated from the last major escalation. It is also important to note that basic needs prices have been steadily increasing over the past year. This prompted international organizations to increase the size and scope of their interventions. For instance, the EU recently announced vital €92 million contribution in support of UNRWA's operations in Palestine and to promote the prospects of sustainable peace between Israelis and Palestinians. The EU also allocated a meager 5 million Euros for humanitarian aid and early recovery in the Gaza Strip in the wake of hostilities in May 2021.

Syria

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-20, 226 corona confirmed cases

-14,012 recovered

-1,378 deaths

The UAE and Syria agree on future plans to enhance economic cooperation and explore new sectors during the next stage.

In a remarkable development, the UAE and Syria are in talks for increased bilateral cooperation across various sectors. Such a move came after a shift in the US Whitehouse administration and UAE statements criticizing the sanctions on Syria. Similarly, Saudi Arabia is seeking to normalize its relationship with the country, insisting that “times has changed”. Now that international pressure has significantly decreased and diplomatic relationships are resuming with its neighbors, Syria has a better chance to rejoin the Arab League. What is more important however, is the restoration works gulf countries will champion and the billions of dollars they will inject into the country.

Unfortunately, Syria is still struggling with the ramifications of previous armed conflict, sanctions, and a worsening covid-19 crisis. In addition to the battered economy, the fuel shortage, and the insufficiency of basic needs, the pandemic is still not entirely under control. However, judging by the trend of what’s happening around the word, and the decrease in new covid-19 rates, Syria will eventually put a lid on the situation just like any other country. The only problem is that these areas are beyond government control.  

Cyprus

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-51,505 corona confirmed cases

-39061 recovered

-272 deaths

Seeing that Cyprus is adopting economically progressive policies, the EU will be involved in the new plan. https://cyprus-mail.com/.

With 78.9% of citizens having received both doses of the vaccine, the economy is bouncing back at an impressive rate. Even Agoritsa Baka, Senior Expert at European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) stated that the epidemiological picture and vaccination coverage in Cyprus is very good and deserves to be congratulated. Currently, the Cyprus Investment Funds Association (CIFA) is formulating a plan that can help the GDP grow by 16.5 per cent over the next 20 years. According to one those involved, the plan will come to fruition through promotion of structural changes which will ultimately help drive investments while having a positive environmental impact. It is important to note as well, that this plan has been endorsed by the EU and will witness the inclusion of various stakeholders.

Communication and Public Relations Department