The Middle East: Just A Real Estate
Project for those in Power?
Middle East Socioeconomic Overview
Report: February 2025
Donald Trump recently outlined the concepts of a plan for the U.S. taking ownership of the Gaza Strip and turning it into the “Riviera of the Middle East.” | photo credit: https://www.pbs.org/
1. Table of Acronyms
2. Introduction
Over the centuries the Middle East seemed to be one giant chess board in which powerful world players clash and every time power shifts in the region the board itself changes. As a result, we have observed map reshuffles such as Sykes–Picot which have created the current region we live in. Today, we are observing somewhat of a repetition of History. What’s more, the Middle East is now being looked at one real estate project that aims to displace millions of people just to quench to thirst of the egos of world leaders.
3. The Socio-Economic Situation
Egypt
Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund - Source: Bloomberg
During February, The International Monetary Fund lowered its forecast for Egypt’s economic growth for the current and next fiscal years, expecting real GDP to grow by 3.6% in fiscal year 2024-2025, which runs until the end of next June. This is a half-percentage point lower than its October forecast, with growth accelerating to 4.1% in the next fiscal year. Due to this reason and the fact that American President Donald Trump is attempting to send Palstinians from Gaza to Egypt, Kristalina Georgieva, Managing Director of the International Monetary Fund, claimed the Fund will continue to support the Egyptian economy, in conjunction with its implementation of economic reforms. Speaking to “Sharq” business magazine, the Fund's Director revealed that the working group concerned with Egypt will present to the Fund's board of Directors the new review of the Egyptian economy restructuring and financing program, and the board will in turn discuss which appropriate decision to take. Of course, factors related to the fluid environment in the Middle East and the changing circumstances will be taken into consideration. Moreover, there is the issue of reforms within the Egyptian government that need to be adressed. Nevertheless, seeing that Egypt plays a major role in regional politics and its stability is important for the region, the IMF might still go ahead and aid the country regardless of the existence of a willingness among the country’s leadership, to implement these reforms.
From her end, Egyptian Minister of Planning and Economic Development Rania Al-Mashat, lauded the achievements which the government was able to achieve despite the conflict in the region. Accroding to her, all was achieved through positive performance in the main sectors, especially the non-oil manufacturing sector, despite the continued decline in the activity of the Suez Canal. She explained that the Suez Canal sector recorded a contraction of 68.4% during the first quarter of the fiscal year. She said that the government is working to transform towards a more flexible economy capable of confronting external variables, and is placing at the top of its priorities the localization of industries, human development and the empowerment of entrepreneurs. The minister’s statement coincides with the govenement’s plans to increase investment into the country to capitalize on Gulf counties’ willingness to build up Egypt’s industry. In this way, Egypt can upgrade its industry so that it can become less reliant on exports which are putting a strain on the country’s trade deficit. Although, Egypt has succeeded in decreasing it, becoming more of an industrial country will take the country to better heights.
Jordan
The European Union (EU) will provide a €3 billion ($3.13 billion) financial package to Jordan to support its growth, as it manages the impact of regional geopolitical challenges.
The Jordanian economy is going through a critical and pivotal phase as after fifteen months of war in Gaza, which had a major impact on the Jordanian economy and the economies of the entire region, the new American administration changes the country’s approach towards the region, and decides to suspend aid for three months. There is no doubt that the policies and programs that the government that it should be adopting will determine the features of the economy for the coming period, and will determine the economy’s ability to grow and progress. Economic and financial policies and programs that address current challenges in the short term are very important because they will ensure and establish economic stability in the medium and long term. The structural challenges facing the Jordanian economy may be the biggest obstacles to improving economic performance and breaking the 2% barrier as an economic growth rate. The potential of the Jordanian economy is at least higher than this percentage as a growth rate. This requires continuous efforts to achieve the necessary reforms at the level of economic policies, in addition to enhancing economic diversification. By focusing on developing sustainable productive sectors, such as technology and renewable energy, Jordan can enhance its export capabilities and reduce dependence on traditional sectors. Focusing on investing in human capital, improving the work environment, and providing training and education opportunities for the workforce will contribute to raising the efficiency of the local market and reducing unemployment levels. From his end, the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) Governor Adel Sharkas, reminded citizens, leaders, and the international community that Jordan is able to weather any challenges while also mentioning that exports grew by 3.8% to JD8.6b in 2024. Moreover, to ensure Jordan’s stability The European Union (EU) will provide a €3 billion ($3.13 billion) financial package to Jordan.
Iraq
Oil exports from the Kurdistan Region. Photo credit: https://www.alarabiya.net/
February marked a significant shift for Iraq. According to Iraq's oil minister, oil exports from the semi-autonomous Kurdistan region of Iraq have resumed within end of the month, resolving a nearly two-year dispute over Kurdish oil exports amid improving relations between Baghdad and Erbil. The dispute happened as a consequence of Turkey halting oil flows in March 2023 after the International Chamber of Commerce ordered Ankara to pay Baghdad $1.5 billion in compensation for unauthorized oil exports. As per the resumption, Baghdad well receive 300 thousand barrels per day from the region. The resumption of exports is also expected to ease economic pressure on the Kurdistan Region, after the halt led to delays in public sector salaries and cuts in basic services. As such, Iraq is looking for a massive boost forward in terms of the direct economic benefit Iraq will reap. Also on the energy front, Minister Abdul Ghani, during the opening of the Iraqi-British Businessmen Forum, claimed that the Ministry of Oil is currently implementing several projects to invest in gas, most notably the contract with the French company TotalEnergies to produce 600 million cubic feet in Basra Governorate and 200 million cubic feet of gas with Baker Hughes to invest in gas from the fields of the city of Nasiriyah. Iraq, during this month, also attempted to meet its electricity needs by intending to double its electricity imports from Turkey to 600 megawatts, and establish strategic renewable energy projects between the two countries as claimed by Iraqi Electricity Minister Ziyad Ali Fadhil announced. For this reason, there are plans to rehabilitate the transmission line in the "Jazra-Kasak" areas to accommodate the increase in the quantities of supplied energy.
Lebanon
A Photo of the new ministers standing with the President, Prime Minister, and Parliament Head. Photo credit: DW.com
The month of February came with some developments which might be beneficial for Lebanon. For instance, Lebanese Finance Minister Yassin Jaber announced, after a meeting with Prime Minister Nawaf Salam to review the draft report on the survey of damages resulting from the war on Lebanon, that the World Bank has prepared a preliminary study for the reconstruction project focusing on infrastructure and removing rubble in the areas. The cost of the project is approximately one billion dollars, and the World Bank will initially provide 250 million dollars. According to the minister, once this amount is approved by the bank, there will certainly be contributions from other countries in order to move forward with the project as the presence of the World Bank is essential and important and gives credibility to the project. Another positive development Is the government under PM Nawaf Salam finally receiving approval to begin works to fix the broken country and its system.
Nevertheless, it is better to be hopeful and cautious at the same time as Lebanese politicians’ nature of saying something and doing something else is hard to change. Moreover, there is also the issue of tending to the plethora of hurdles that are weighing down the country. For instance, the issue of illegal smuggling that has benefitted some individuals while degrading the economy. Also, there is the issue of rampant corruption within public administration spheres in which political parties have installed individuals that answer that calling. As such, tending to this problem will require stepping on some toes and friction with political parties, something the government might be unwilling to do. There is also the issue of restructuring the economy to transform the country into one that actually produces things rather than relying on imports and handouts. Here we would run into the problem of the unavailability of funds or investments which depend on several factors which include applying UN Resolution 1701. As such, the developments of the months ahead will be revealing how the country will carry itself forward.
Palestine
A “Pro-Palestine” movement protesting the developments in Palestine. Photo credit: www.alaraby.co.uk
Gaza hangs in the balance as a result of American President’s will to purchase Gaza and make it the “Riviera of the Middle East”. However, this process includes the expunging of Palestinians from their lands to neighboring countries. Not only the Palestinians themselves are unwilling to do so but other Arab countries have expressed their strong opposition. Moreover, the move has increased tensions in the area and soured the US’s relationship with some Arab countries. As a reaction to the US’s plan for Gaza, countries in the region have rallied together to form plans that would act as a substitute to the America’s President real estate plan. So far, they have been rejected, however next month an Emergency Arab Summit in which an Egyptian- Arab plan will be unveiled to counter Donald Trump’s plan. Moreover, regional and international institutions involved with Gaza have also ramped up efforts to demonstrate solidarity with Gaza and the viability of its economy. For instance, ICC-Palestine Emerging Steering Committee was held virtually on 7 February, marking a progress-tracking. With a focus on the economic development and reconstruction of Gaza and the West Bank, the ICC-Palestine Emerging partnership works to promote strong private sectors. Another key move has been the formal affiliation of the Federation of Palestinian Chambers of Commerce, Industry and Agriculture (FPCCIA) with the ICC World Chambers Federation. The affiliation will allow Palestinian companies to participate in ICC’s global business events and to gain international market access. It will also provide Palestinian companies with direct access to ICC OneClick, ICC’s gateway supporting SMEs in their export journey.
Syria
Syria faces a difficult road to social and economic recovery. Photo credit: Getty Images
According to a report by the United Nations Development Program, the conflict in Syria has destroyed the country's economy, creating economic and social crises that have impoverished millions of Syrians, with nine out of ten Syrians living in poverty. Also, one out of four is unemployed and the 14 years of conflict in Syria have ruined nearly four decades of economic and social progress and human capital. Moreover, the Syrian economy could recover to its pre-conflict level within a decade, with strong growth. Unfortunately, with how things are going at the moment, The Syrian economy will not recover to its pre-conflict level of GDP before 2080. Annual economic growth would need to increase six-fold to shorten the recovery period to ten years, and an ambitious ten-fold increase over 15 years would be needed to return the economy to what it would have been without the conflict. According to UNDP Administrator Ashim Steiner, Syria’s recovery requires long-term investment in development to build economic and social stability for its people, beyond immediate humanitarian assistance. Also, restoring productivity to create jobs and alleviate poverty, revitalizing agriculture to achieve food security, and rebuilding infrastructure for basic services such as health care, education and energy are all essential factors for a sustainable future, prosperity and peace. Unfortunately, this is going to be much of a challenge as the conflict has resulted in an estimated loss of GDP of US$800 billion over 14 years. Three out of four people depend on humanitarian assistance and need development support in the basic areas of health, education, income poverty, unemployment, food insecurity, water, sanitation, energy and housing.
Nevertheless, some positive developments have started to plant seeds of hope with Syria’s future. Crude oil has resumed to flow from North East Syria after stopping since the fall of the Assad regime. Also the current government is optimistically awaiting the European Union’s suspension of its sanctions in the fields of energy, transportation, and banking sector. Also, Damascus is counting on the lifting of international economic sanctions, which is necessary to restart the economic cycle. Another positive development is Syria's caretaker government initiating efforts to revitalize the country's phosphate sector, including production and sales. On February 12, the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources announced three tenders. Also, Turkish Airlines, Royal Jordanian and Qatar Airways are back to Syrian airports after a 13-year hiatus. Ankara has touted negotiations about a maritime demarcation agreement with Damascus, and the French giant CMA CGM is poised to sign a new agreement to renew its contract managing the Port of Lattakia's container terminal. In other words, Syrian ports and airports are gradually reconnecting to the world, albeit at a slow pace. An important development also to be taken into consideration is that many business figures affiliated with the previous regime seem to have got reassurances from the new authorities and are still living and working in Syria; some of them have met with the new authorities or addressed them in public letters in a bid to distance themselves from the ousted regime.
Cyprus
Economic growth slows to 2.9% as construction problems weighs on Q4 data.
According to a report released by the small island’s statistical service, Cyprus’ economy grew, albeit at a slower pace, during the fourth quarter of 2024, with GDP increasing by 2.6 per cent compared to the same quarter of the previous year. This growth was driven largely by the hospitality, wholesale and retail, motor vehicle repair, and information and communication sectors. However, a decline in construction slightly reduced the overall growth rate and therefore became slightly higher at 2.9 per cent. Although this might paint a gloomy situation compared to what Cyprus has been trying to achieve so far, but the government is continuously investing its time in forming new partnerships with foreign entities and conducting internal changes that can suit its growth. From one end, Cyprus formed a “game-changing” agreement with Egypt to extract gas energy from several blocks within the sea. Several companies such as TotalEnegies, Italy’s Eni, and Cronos will take part in extraction, liquefying, and processing of the gas. Eni Chief Executive Officer Claudio Descalzi called the agreement a decisive step toward creating an energy hub in the eastern Mediterranean which will have large impact to the area. On the internal front, Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides highlighted key economic and labor policy decisions during a Council of Ministers meeting at the Presidential Palace, emphasizing efforts to boost employment and draw Cypriot professionals back home. The Council of Ministers also approved two significant labor market measures: a minimum wage increase for 19 professions in the hotel industry, and a new framework for hiring foreign workers, addressing staffing shortages caused by economic growth and lower unemployment rates.
4. The Humanitarian Situation
Egypt
Refugees International has raised alarm over the deteriorating conditions faced by Sudanese refugees in Egypt, calling for immediate international intervention. [1]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 589,159 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of February.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for the beginning of February, are distributed as follows:
-174,819 in Amman Governorate (29.7%)
-151,671 in Mafraq Governorate (25.7%)
-114,724 in Irbid Governorate (19.5%)
-88,194 in Zarqa Governorate (15%)
-15,055 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
-11,638 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
-7,486 in Jarash Governorate (1.3%)
-7,447 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
-8,265 in Maan Governorate (1.4%)
-4,910 in Ajlun Governorate (0.8%)
-3,739 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
-1,200 in Tafilah Governorate (0.8%)
-293 in other (0.0%)
To address these challenges, Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA), has partnered with the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) and the Jordan Red Crescent National Society (JNRCS) to launch a transformative 3-year project with the aim of supporting Jordan’s water-stressed communities.[2]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 339,299 registered refugees in Iraq. Of those, 90,890 live in camps.
The proportion of refugee people (non-camp) registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of February, are distributed as follows:
-121,969 in Erbil (49.1%)
-40,511 in Dahuk (16.3%)
-32,270 in Sulaymaniyah (13.1%)
-2,465 in Ninewa (1%)
-32,590 in Baghdad (13.1%)
-3,896 in Kerbala (1.6%)
-3,656 in Najaf (1.5%)
-2,683 in Kirkuk (1.1%)
-2,294 in Anbar (0.9%)
-17,792 in other areas (5.56%)[3]
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) welcomed a generous contribution from the Italian Government, through the Italian Agency for Development Cooperation (AICS), to help Iraqi communities strengthen their resilience to climate change while creating economic opportunities, especially for women.[4]
After 20 years of working in Iraq, War Child has decided to close its operations after supporting hundreds of thousands of children affected by conflict.[5]
UN Women and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) announced a new collaboration to strengthen the resilience of vulnerable women and girls—including internally displaced persons, returnees and host communities in Sinjar, Sinuni, and Al-Amal Centre in Ninawa Province.[6]
Lebanon
{UNHCR Lebanon did not update its data for February}
Since the beginning of January the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 755,426.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
-282,744 in Bekaa (37.4%)
-216,781 in North Lebanon (28.7%)
-172,096 in Beirut (22.8%)
-83,805 in South Lebanon (11.1%)[7]
According to Human Rights Watch attacks in southern Lebanon destroyed vast swathes of critical civilian infrastructure and public services, preventing tens of thousands of Lebanese from returning to their homes.[8]
The UN claimed that the Occupier must respect the ceasefire agreement with Lebanon, immediately end housing demolitions, ensure the safety of civilians returning to their homes, and fully withdraw its military from South Lebanon.[9]
Syria
As part of Qatar’s ongoing air bridge to support the Syrian Arab Republic, Qatar Fund for Development has sent 19 tons of humanitarian aid, containing food basket via a Qatari Amiri Air Force plane, which landed at Damascus International Airport.[10]
Action For Humanity and its sister charity Syria Relief, the UK's largest Syria-focused NGO, are calling upon the international community to urgently lift the current sanctions imposed on Syria and address and respond to the detrimental effects of the recent U.S. foreign aid freeze. [11]
The SRTF announces the approval of two new projects in Aleppo governorate under the Food Security, and Agriculture sectors and a Livelihoods project in Northeast Syria.[12]
To support early recovery efforts in war-torn Syria, UNOPS and the UN Population Fund (UNFPA) declared that they will launch a program to help enhance access to vital health services in underserved areas of Rural Damascus.[13]
Cyprus
UNHCR Cyprus declared in February 2025, that from 2002 until the end of 2024, some 23,300 persons have been registered as having been granted international protection in Cyprus, of whom approximately 4,600 were granted refugee status, and approximately 18,700 subsidiary protection.[14]
[1] Shia Waves, Feb24, 2025, https://shiawaves.com/english/news/islam/egypt/119444-refugee-organization-criticizes-egypt-over-treatment-of-sudanese-refugees/
[2] OCHA, Jan 30, 2025, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/red-cross-red-crescent-and-koica-announce-major-initiative-tackle-water-scarcity-jordan-enar
[3] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[4] OCHA, Feb 4, 2025, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/wfp-and-italy-partner-government-iraq-boost-climate-resilience-and-agricultural-livelihoods-enar
[5] OCHA, Feb 7, 2025, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/war-child-closes-its-iraq-office-after-two-decades-support-children
[6] OCHA, Feb 10, 2025, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/un-women-and-unfpa-partner-strengthen-resilience-women-and-girls-iraq-enar
[7] UNHCR, Oct 28, 2024, https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[8] OCHA, Feb 17, 2025, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/lebanon-destruction-infrastructure-preventing-returns-enar
[9] OCHA, Feb 13, 2025, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/israel-must-stop-killing-civilians-returning-their-homes-south-lebanon-un-experts
[10]OCHA, Fe 11, 2025, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/qatar-fund-development-sends-19-tons-humanitarian-aid-damascus-support-syrian-people-enar
[11]OCHA, Feb 12, 2025, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/action-humanitysyria-relief-urges-immediate-lifting-sanctions-and-highlights-impact-us-foreign-aid-freeze-ahead-paris-conference
[12] OCHA, Feb 10, 2025, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-approves-three-new-projects-enhance-food-security-agriculture-and-livelihoods-syria-enar
[13] OCHA, Feb 2, 2025, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/strengthening-essential-healthcare-services-people-syria
[14] UNHCR, Feb 25, 2025, https://reliefweb.int/report/cyprus/cyprus-integration-factsheet-december-2024