An Unfortunate Disaster
Report: February, 2023
Syrian Civil Defense workers and security forces search through the wreckage of collapsed buildings after a devastating earthquake rocked Syria and Turkey, in Aleppo, Syria, Monday, Feb. 6, 2023.
1. Introduction
During February, a catastrophe in the form of an earthquake occurred in Turkey and Syria causing at least 46,400 casualties. As images of the horrifying news spread across television sets and other forms of mass media, one cannot help but wonder: Can the region bear any more calamities? Already, the region’s economy is hanging by a thread and its inhabitants have seen enough death and destruction. Although Turkey’s economy might be in a better spot to handle the earthquake’s ramification, Syria’s war-burdened economy will be unable to handle rehabilitation expenses.
2. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION
Egypt
Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said Egypt plans to sell shares in at least 32 state companies in the coming year. PHOTO: AMR ABDALLAH DALSH/REUTERS
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 515,698
Deaths: 24,809
As of 18 February 2023, a total of 104,508,139 vaccine doses have been administered...
As the country grapples with its deepening economic crisis, the government is looking for other solutions to fill its empty state coffers. As such, it has decided to sell stakes in 32 state-run companies in various sectors, such as electricity, banking, and hotels, in a bid to attract more private investment. In this manner, the Egyptian government will attempt to override the effects of the Ukraine war and give its economy some breathing space. Therefore, it plans to share in the coming year either directly to investors or via the Egyptian Stock Exchange. According to Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, the list includes stakes in locally prominent firms such as Banque du Caire and Egypt’s largest insurance company, Misr Life Insurance Co. The Prime Minister, however, did not mention how large the shares that are being sold and that presents a problem. Over the years, Egypt’s economy has long been dominated by the state and increasingly by the military, creating less space for private firms to thrive. Moreover, at several instances the government had promissed privitization but didn’t follow through. As such, it is normal for skeptics to expect the same this time around.
Some experts, however, suggest that this time the government’s promise seems sincere as Egypt is in a serious situation as a result of the war in Eastern Europe. Already, the war has accelerated the increasing inflation and raised the cost of importing grains, causing foreign investors to flee and the Egyptian pound to depreciate. Even Moody’s Investors Service downgraded Egypt’s credit rating from “B2” to “B3,” citing challenges to the economy like a difficult borrowing environment and pressure on the government to increase social spending amid high inflation. It moreover mentioned that Egypt’s capability to manage the implication of high inflation. Due to such a difficult situation and other similar assessments of its economy, the Egyptian government stated that it will cut down travel costs of state employees and officials, and some state-investment projects. In the end, Prime Minister Mabdouly claimed that the government will begin issuing stakes at the end of March and may add more companies to the sale list the coming year. For now, the sales demonstrates how serious the government is about withdrawing from the private sector.
Jordan
Dr Sultan Al Jaber, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly, Yousef Al Shamali and other officials in Cairo. Photo: Ministry of Industry and Advanced Technology
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,746,997
Deaths: 14,122
As of 20 August 2022, a total of 10,057,975 vaccine doses have been administered.
Prime Minister Bisher Khasawneh issued a circular directing all ministries, government departments and institutions to fully adhere to the provisions of Article 43 of the 2022 Investment Environment Law No. 21. The purpose of this move is to organize investment activities that will be occurring throughout year 2023 and beyond. As such, it is expected that Jordan will be attracting additional investments to stimulate the economy. For instance, Jordan, together with the UAE, Jordan, Egypt and Bahrain announced a “plethora” of industrial projects worth “millions of dollars” and will be implemented in all 5 countries. Investment Minister Kholoud Saqqaf is hoping that investment would occur in the industrial sector as it can diversify exports, reduce imports and increase the value of exports for domestic development. Another investment that will be injected in Jordan is that of two companies Umniah and Ericsson which will be in charge of developing 5G services in Jordan. As part of the partnership, Ericsson will supply its 5G products and solutions to build Umniah’s 5G network. Already, the preparatory phase has started by setting up part of the needed infrastructure for 5G services. Such a move is critical for foreign companies wishing to invest in Jordan, as 5G services and its infrastructure, are important for enhancing the efficiency of services provided in a myriad of vital sectors like energy, health, transportation, industries, and education. Moreover, the move is part of Jordan’s national agenda to accelerate digital transformation across society and enterprise.
Iraq
US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein speak to the media prior to a meeting, in the Treaty Room of the US State Department in Washington. (AFP)
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 2,465,545
Deaths: 25,375
As of 1 January 2023, a total of 19,557,364 vaccine doses have been administered.
According to the IMF, the Iraqi economy remains to be vulnerable despite the increase in oil prices. This is due to the supposed volatility of the market in which prices can fluctuate. As such, its economy remains fragile especially when Insecurity and political instability continue to discourage private investments. This is putting pressure on the government to maintain a social compact based on government provision of jobs and subsidies which, in turn, are financed by oil revenue. Fixing such a flaud system would require the crackdown on corruption. However, such an action would be easier said than done as people interwined in corruption usually have links to powerful individuals. Iraq’s deputy Prime Minister Fuad Hussein even admitted that fighting corruption in Iraq is much more difficult than fighting ISIS.
Despite the lack of enthusiasm of international organizations regarding the country’s economy, Iraq’s leaders are attempting to shore up the economy by improving bilateral ties with other nations. For instance, deputy Prime Minister Fuad Hussein travelled to Washington to improve his country’s relations with the US and discuss ways to help Iraq’s economy. He also convened with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to discuss procedures that would shield Iraqi banks from sanctions imposed on Russia; Russian investments in Iraq are believed to be worth more than $10 billion, mostly in the oil industry, and sanctions affecting the Iraqi side would be detrimental to the country’s economy. Minister Fuad Hussein also convened with Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal Bin Farhan, to discuss enhancing cooperation with Saudi Arabia.
Lebanon
A depiction of the state Lebanon is in. photo credit: The Economist.
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,231,040
Deaths: 10,819
As of 21 December 2022, a total of 5,814,699 vaccine doses have been administered.
Lebanon continues to tumble into the uknown as the Lebanese Pound has depreciated to a new low; on the 16th of February the value of dollar registered 80,000 LBP on the parallel market setting the stage for further dramatic events in the country. The new devaluation was accelerated by the decision of a cartel of private Lebanese banks to close for several days, announcing a strike to protest against a judicial decision against a Lebanese credit institute. As a result, banks have been assaulted as they are being blamed for the new devaluation; already, there is a general conception that banks stole people’s money and are behind the situation the country is in. Other citizens continued to close the roads by burning tires and garbage. Moreover, fuel prices have continued to go up thus straining people’s ability to fill their tanks. Concequently, other commodities and services are witnessing an inflation due to this increase in energy prices and devaluation of the Lebanese currency. As People’s purchasing power is decreasing, the private sector is contracting and unemployment is therefore on the rise. To make matters worse, Lebanon is also going through a de facto dollarization of its economy,not by law or policy, but by the deminishing value of the Lebanese Pound as a result of being a country that imports way more than it exports. Such a phenomenon is happening with no price controls or penalties against financial abusers.
In an attempt to alleviate the gravity of the situation, the Minister of Finance in the caretaker government, Youssef Al-Khalil, participated in a meeting of Arab finance ministersin Dubai. In the presence of representatives of the Arab Monetary Fund and the International Monetary Fund, the minister presented the economic impact of climate change, and encouraged investment in the alternative energy sector. Unfortunately, not many are interested in investment in anything related to Lebanon, seeing that corruption still runs rampant and a reform agenda remains to be absent. As such, there is no trust in the Lebanese system when the simplest forms of reform are not being carried out. Unfortunately, the country seems to be in what is called a “Deliberate Depression” as many talking heads had mentioned throughout the years; there are forces inside Lebanon that don’t want the country to be a free and modern state.
Palestine
Throughout the years the Japanese government has defended Palestinian rights and assisted the country to stay on its feet. Photo credit: Embassy of Japan in Palestine.
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 703,228
Deaths: 5,708
As of 17 October 2022, a total of 3,748,571 vaccine doses have been administered
Despite the ongoing economic siege imposed by Israel and the effects of the war in Ukraine, Palestine recorded an increase of 1% in GDP in Palestine during the third quarter of 2022 compared to the second quarter. The increase was measured by the Palestinian Central Bureau of Statistics (PCBS) and was due to advancements in sectors related to transportation, storage, wholesale and retail trade, repair of motor vehicles and motorcycles, mining, manufacturing, electricity and water, construction, financial and insurance activities, information and communication activities, and services. All these are positive indicators that Palestine is working on its own potential to make its sectors more productive. Moreover, it is receiving help from international partners to upgrade its own economy. For instance, the government of Japan dispatched USD 39,199,843 through international organizations, and some USD 0.76 million through Japanese NGOs as a comprehensive economic assistance package. The funds will help improve the economy by enhancing access to markets and trade opportunities, augmenting industrial efforts such as fishery and agriculture for the most vulnerable communities. Organizations implementing the government of Japan’s objectives are the UNRWA, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), International Labor Organization (ILO) and International Trade Centre (ITC), Office of the Quartet and United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO).
Syria
Cash strapped Syria will not be able to repair the damages on its own. Photo credit: UN News.
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 57,423
Deaths: 3,163
As of 15 January 2023, a total of 4,971,203 vaccine doses have been administered
The Syrian economy was heavily impacted by the earthquake which struck the Middle East region on the 6th of February. Reports indicated that thousands of buildings across the country’s northwest area had totally or partially collapsed or sustained cracks. In that part of Syria, where 4.1 million of the 4.5 million inhabitants are dependent on humanitarian aid for survival, the consequences have been particularly devastating on the inhabitants. Due to the risk of collapsing buildings, residents who survived the quake have been left outside in freezing temperatures, without drinking water, electricity, and fuel for heating. Although the government did not release much information about the status of its economic infrastructure, it reported that several parts of the Banias Refinery were cracked, and the power transmission network was also affected.
The only positive thing that happened is that the country’s prime economic assets, i.e. power plants, gas processing plants, oil and gas wells, phosphate mines, and dams, were spared. Unfortunately, this brings little comfort as devastation was plenty and civilian casualties were in the thousands; around 6000 people were reported to be dead. As for the economic cost the earthquake has inflicted, it remains to be measured. However, one thing is for sure: It is nothing that the regime can handle given how cash strapped it is. Already, it has dedicated most of its spending for the war effort and the salaries of civil servants. Moreover, western donors are experiencing financial fatigue due to the prolonged years of war in Syria, the war in Ukraine, and the immense needs in Turkey after the earthquake. Also, Western sanctions are still in place thus making the process of receiving funds difficult. Therefore, it would be no surprise if Syria receives less financial assistance than anticipated.
Cyprus
Finance Minister Constantinos Petrides and IMF Executive Director Paul Hilbers meeting for the first time in Cyprus. Photo credit: https://cyprus-mail.com
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 647,031
Deaths: 1,297
As of 4 February 2023, a total of 1,856,599 vaccine doses have been administered.
According to the IMF, the Cypriot economy has achieved remarkable strides over the past years, thus allowing it to outperform other economies. It has reduced its public debt, corrected the state of its public finances and the achieved growth rates so remarkable that it surpassed the IMF’s expectations. Moreover, such results were observed during great macroeconomic instability in the region. Estimations surrounding the final quarter of the year 2022, suggest that the Cypriot economy grew by 4.4%. However, it is expected to drop in 2023 to 3.0% due to a slowdown in economic activity primarily due to global challenges and persistent inflationary pressures. Despite all this, Cyprus is observed to be safe and sound from any form of recession. “The Cypriot economy is on a trajectory of stability and has undergone structural changes.” claimed the Finance Minister Constantinos Petrides during discussion about the matter. According to him, the Cypriot economy is profoundly resilient to external changes due to the reform the country has undergone through over the past years. Also, it has invested in alternative solutions related to green energy and has attracted investments from a wide array of countries and companies wishing to reap the rewards of the well-connected nature of the island and the opportunities which it provides.
3. THE REFUGEE SITUATION
Egypt
The WFP assisted about 105,000 registered vulnerable refugees nationwide with monthly cash assistance to help secure their basic food needs. Similarly, WFP provided about 8,600 pregnant and lactating refugee women, with cash assistance conditional to monthly check-ups for both mother and child. The cash assistance is provided via redeemable e-cards for food items at nearby retailers.[1]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 661,670 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of February.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for February, are distributed as follows:
196,868 in Amman Governorate (29.8 %)
169,201 in Mafraq Governorate (25.6%)
130,086 in Irbid Governorate (19.7%)
97,995 in Zarqa Governorate (14.8%)
17,342 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
13,122 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
8,657 in Jarash Governorate (1.3%)
8,431 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
8,250 in Maan Governorate (1.3%)
5,925 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
3,810 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
1,511 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
· During the six day medical mission to Jordan in January 2023, close to 4,300 individuals were provided medical care by Syrian American Medical Society (SAMS) volunteers. Syrian refugees received 60% of those health care services. [2]
· Andrew Mitchell, the UK Minister for Development, visited Jordan to see UK aid to Jordan, including to help vulnerable Jordanians and Syrian refugees, and to discuss development cooperation with the Jordanian government as part of the close partnership between the two countries.[3]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 259,584 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of Febraury, are distributed as follows:
125,348 in Erbil (48.3%)
83,581 in Dahuk (32.3%)
34,443 in Sulaymaniyah (13.3%)
2,337 in Anbar (0.9%)
13,875 in other areas (5.4%)[4]
· WFP distributed in-kind family food rations (FFR) to around 135,000 IDPs in Ninewa and Kurdistan region. In addition, WFP distributed around US$ 746,000 612,000 in cashbased transfers (CBT) to close to 39000 37,000 refugees in Kurdistan region. Furthermore, following the targeting exercise, WFP distributed CBT to over 2,700 refugee and IDP families.[5]
· Peace Winds rehabilitated a water pumping station in Hamadat Sub-District, Mosul District, Ninewa Governorate, improving access to safe water for 106,303 families in Mosul District and Tel Afar District in Ninewa Governorate.[6]
Lebanon
[For the month of February, statistics were not updated by the UNHCR]
Since January, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 814,715.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
318,713 in Bekaa (39.1%)
226,508 in North Lebanon (27.8%)
180,120 in Beirut (22.1%)
89,374 in South Lebanon (11.0%)[7]
· Thousands of refugee children are being cut off from education, due to the suspension of classes by teachers over the stark devaluation of their salaries.[8]
· UNICEF sounded the alarm over the interruption of education and asked all relevant stakeholders to intervene to allow all children access to education.[9]
· Reported in February, UNICEF repaired and provided maintenance for over 500 water systems, which has resulted in at least an additional two hours of water per day on average, reaching approximately 500,000 people on a monthly basis.[10]
Syria
· More than 4,500 deaths and 8,500 injuries have been reported in north-west Syria, as of 21 February, since an earthquake of 7.7 magnitude struck Türkiye on 6 February.
· As of 21 February, more than 10,000 buildings have been completely or partially destroyed in north-west Syria, rendering at least 11,000 people homeless.
· The WHO dispatched health supplies to northwest Syria through the Bab Al-Hawa and Bab Al-Salama border crossings, to further support health facilities meet the medical and emergency needs of affected people in the area.
· The IRC (International Rescue Committee), warns of serious economic repercussions as a result of the earthquake. Moreover, the humanitarian situation in North-West Syria was already deplorable and the earthquake made the situation more critical.[11]
· UNFPA appealed for $24.8 million to meet the needs of women and girls and vulnerable populations in the whole of Syria.[12]
Cyprus
· Tensions rise between Greece, Italy, Malta and Cyprus from one hand and other EU states. According to the four mentioned countries, other EU countries are still ‘dumping’ the responsibility of refugees on these Mediterranean countries.[13]
[1] Relief Web, Jan 22, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/egypt/wfp-egypt-country-brief-december-2022
[2] Milwaukee Independent, Feb 16, 2023, http://www.milwaukeeindependent.com/photos/medical-mission-jordan-faces-syrian-refugees-health-struggles-years-war/
[3] Jordan Times, Feb 22, 2023, https://jordantimes.com/news/local/uk-development-minister-visits-jordan
[4] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[5] OCHA, Jan 29, 2023,https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/wfp-iraq-country-brief-december-2022
[6] OCHA, Feb 20, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iraq-improved-access-safe-water-returnees-ninewa-governorate
[7] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[8]OCHA, Feb 22, 2023 https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/thousands-refugee-students-cut-classes-lebanon-enar
[9] OCHA, 15 Feb 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/unicef-calls-all-stakeholders-re-open-public-schools-and-ensure-all-children-are-learning-enar
[10] OCHA, Feb 3, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/unicef-lebanon-humanitarian-situation-report-no-2-1-july-31-december-2022
[11] OCHA, Feb 20, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/critical-economic-situation-syrians-northwest-after-recent-earthquake-warns-irc
[12] OCHA, Feb 20, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/unfpa-appeal-earthquake-response-across-whole-syria
[13]GIS, JANUARY 31, 2023, https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/migration-tensions/