Towards a More Stable Region
Report: October 2022
With the world still in shock because of the war in Ukraine, the world is looking for energy solutions in the Middle East. That’s why it is a perfect opportunity for ME nations to grow together. Photo credit: World Atlas
With the world still in shambles because of the war in Ukraine, many countries are looking for energy reserves that can satisfy their consumption demands. Luckily there are untapped gas fields in the Middle East that have yet to be put to good use. This is why all eyes are turned towards the area and diplomatic efforts have been underway to preserve peace in the region. As such, ME nations can expect heightened cooperation with Western nations which will lead to a more prosperous future.
1- The Socio-Economic Situation
Egypt
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 515,401
Deaths: 24,798
As of 28 September 2022, a total of 98,911,424 vaccine doses have been administered.
Although the IMF has downgraded Egypt’s growth, it has accepted loaning Egypt additional funds. Photo credit Reuters.
Despite the high inflation and poverty rates taking their toll on Egypt’s economy, the country is still recording some positive indicators. In fact, it is one of the few economies to achieve a primary surplus in the last fiscal year at 1.3% of GDP. Moreover, it recorded a growth rate of 6.6, an increase in tax revenues by about 19% on an annual basis, and a reduction in the budget deficit to 6.1% after it had stood at 13% in 2012/2013. The IMF however, reduced its forecast for Egypt’s economic growth to 4.4% after it had been 5% in April. Analysts assume the reason behind this slowdown is the protracted war in Ukraine, which has impacted the Middle East region. Also, global inflation is partly to be blamed for any downturn in Egypt’s economy. Nevertheless, Egypt’s economy is still vibrant and yielding impressive results. The government is implementing structural reforms that would allow the country to adapt to the changing world. For instance, it is planning to exit from 79 sectors and reduce its investments in 45 other sectors. In this way, it would make way for private investors to enter the market. This is a policy that President El Sisi is implementing to empower the private sector.
Because of the positive strides Egypt has been achieving, the IMF recently approved a new loan program that would give the economy additional flexibility. Using this grant, Egypt is hoping to put a lid on the damage the Ukraine crisis have caused;Foreign investors had pulled 20 billion dollars out of the Egyptian treasury markets and this has led to a currency crisis that has restricted imports and sparked market unease over foreign debt repayments. In turn, the IMF has lauded the implementation of the government’s comprehensive structural reform agenda claiming that it would gradually enhance the competitiveness of the economy. Moreover, it stated that the reform plan would reduce the role of the state in the economy allowing the private sector to take charge. This in turn will facilitate the transition to a green economy.
Jordan
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,746,997
Deaths: 14,122
As of 20 August 2022, a total of 10,057,975 vaccine doses have been administered.
In a period of 9 months, Jordan received 5.8 million passengers. Photo credit: Zawya.
According to the IMF, Jordan’s economy is set to grow by 2.4% in 2022. As for 2023 it is expected that the economy will score a 2.7% growth. The reason behind this is an economy reopening to the world to do business. Investments alone grew by 29 per cent in the first nine months of 2022 as 312 projects were attracted. They are expected to create 13,400 jobs, as stated by the Investment Ministry. During the same period, the country also registered a high number of incoming passengers, reaching 5.8 million. This meant that the number of passengers has increased by 89.6% when compared to 2021. Such a figure comes in line with Jordan’s attempt to increase the number of flights and destination networks. It also poses a positive sign of an improving tourism sector. Another sector which is also recovering is the food sector. According to the Industry, Trade and Supply Ministry, local prices of food items have begun their recovery from the global food crises. This is due to the reduction in production costs which has occurred due to decreased oil prices, post-pandemic production resumption and availability of goods. The government also took measures such as lowering inspection and handling fees and lowering the sales tax on items.
On the international front, Jordan received US aid of $845 million for its treasury as part an agreement. The Ministry of Planning and International Cooperation indicated that the agreement is part of a five-year US assistance commitment of the period between 2018-2022. Similarly, Germany announced that it will grant 413.9 million euros in assistance to Jordan for the 2022-2023. The amount will go to development projects, technical cooperation, the water sector, and supporting Syrian refugees.
Iraq
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 2,461,107
Deaths: 25,358
As of 11 October 2022, a total of 19,299,829 vaccine doses have been administered.
Iraq's newly-elected President Abdul Latif Rashid waves during his inauguration and handover ceremony at al-Salam Palace in Baghdad. (AFP)
With the election of a the president Abdul Latif Rashid, so ends months of political deadlock which had gripped the country. His coming into office forced his attention to the speedy creation of a government. That’s why he appointed Mohammed Shia al-Sudani as Iraq’s prime minister-designate. This is excellent news for those that have been waiting for the end of the political paralysis that has delayed progress in the country. At the present moment, Iraq is plagued with joblessness corruption and unpaid salaries that are symptoms of the absence of a government. For the time being, the new prime minister vowed to fight corruption after authorities announced nearly $2.5 billion was embezzled from the account of a government agency. Of course, it will not be an easy task especially when the situation in the country is polarized between armed opposing factions. As such forming a government will come with its ups and downs. Most probably, there will a delay in its formation especially with the announcement of the movement of Moqtada Sadr, its refusal to join a Sudani-led government. The stakes are high for the formation of the cabinet as there is a massive amount of $87 billion in revenues from oil exports locked up in the central bank’s coffers. The money can be used to rebuild infrastructure but it can only be used when a budget is set by the cabinet.
Lebanon
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,218,082
Deaths: 10,699
As of 9 October 2022, a total of 5,789,338 vaccine doses have been administered.
London-based Energean’s drill ship begins drilling at the Karish natural gas field. Photo credit: Reuters
During October, a historic deal, that would guarantee Lebanon’s right to extract gaz from its territory was signed. As a result, Lebanon has been cleared to operate in the Qana field. As for the part of Qana that stretches into Israeli claimed territory, it will be compensated by Total Energies through royalties payed to Israel. This brings positive news to the troubled country that has been facing a devastating economic collapse. Already, Total Energies has been asked by Prime Minister-designate Najib Mikati to start offshore exploration as soon as possible. Similarly, Lebanese President Michel Aoun asked for drilling activies to commence in Block 9 immediately.
The result of such a deal is the decreased likelihood of a war breaking out; over the past two months hightened tension was observed at borders. Hopefully, projects will commence quickly to alleviate the economic burdens hanging over the country. Lebanon is in dire need of some sort of financial boost to save it from the harsh situation it is in.
Unfortunately time is not in the favor of Lebanon as the Lebanese currency continues to depreciate to new lows. Hyperinflation in the country is growing for the 26th consecutive month, reaching 162%. As such, more and more people are plunging into poverty and signs of desperation are becoming more tangable in the form of armed robberies. Banks are bearing the brunt as exasperated citizens are staging hold ups in an attempt to take back their money. As a result, the banking sector, the main pillar of the economy, is in a state of dissaray thus threatening the economy as whole.
Meanwhile, more and more Lebanese attempt to leave the country through illegal ferries only to end up stranded at sea. Last month, in mid September, 100 casualties were recorded when a boat capsized at sea. Their desperation which resulted from the economic collapse and the hardship induced by the situation has obliged many to seek a better life even at the cost of their lives.
Palestine
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 703,014
Deaths: 5,708
As of 8 August 2022, a total of 3,741,181 vaccine doses have been administered.
Palestine might be at the cusp of becoming a gas producer. Photo credit: atalayar.com
Inspired by the agreement signed between Lebanon and Isreal over gas extraction in the Mediterranean, Palestine is also following suit. Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyed announced that the head of the Palestinian Investment Fund (PIF), Mohammad Mostafa, is negotiating a gas extraction deal with the Egyptian Natural Gas Company (EGAS). According to The New Arab, the Palestinian Authority will sign an agreement with Egypt before the end of this year. The agreement will discuss the distribution between the stakeholders and how the gas will be marketed. But doing so may not be as easy as it sounds. There is one major hurdle that is standing in the way of economic prosperity: Israel. The Zionist occupation might block such a thing from happening. Already, the Palestinian economy is suffocated by the sieges imposed and the use of unwarranted violence has only increased. Over 2 million Palestinians living in Gaza continue to suffer from the illegal blockade, deepening poverty and unemployment. Meanwhile, illegal settlers continue to steal land while pillaging and destroying Palestinian property in the process. Israel has denied Palestinians access to their natural resources, including shared water resources and an estimated 1.5 billion barrels of oil reserves in the West Bank as well as more than $2.5 billion worth of natural gas off the Gaza coast. As such, the Palestinian Authority might have its hands tied with dealing with Israel. Nevertheless, the cooling down of relations between Lebanon and Israel might indicate a change of heart from the Israeli side.
Syria
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 57,348
Deaths: 3,163
As of 15 October 2022, a total of 4,777,586 vaccine doses have been administered
The Syrian pound dropped a new low amid economic decline. Photo credit: Alaraby.
Syria’s national currency dipped to new lows, trading at SYP 5,000 to the US dollar. This mirrors UN Special Envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen’s remark on the Sidelines of the UN General Assembly that Syria still risks economic collapse. It may be an over-the-top grim observation, but one cannot ignore the hardship the country and its people are passing through: More than 75% of Syrians can’t meet their most basic needs; there are 5.6 million refugees in neighboring countries; and 6.9 million internally displaced, out of an estimated population of 17 million. Women and children have suffered greatly because of war. There are also reports of Cholera spreading at an alarming rate within Syria.
So far, the government is struggling to attract investors. This is especially the case when it comes to the manufacturing sector which has only attracted a minimal size of capital. This has prompted the Syrian government to sell SYP 72.50 billion worth of treasury bonds as part of its efforts to raise money to fund its deficit. Moreover, the government is struggling to find employees to fill positions after mass resignations. This labor shortage will slow down bureaucratic functions of the government and will make it less efficient in serving citizens.
Syria was also impacted by decrease in wheat and barley production. The government attributes this phenomenon to climate change low water levels in the Euphrates River, and production input shortages.
Despite all the mishaps, the Syrian government was able to achieve some positive outcomes. It was able to open a 5-star in Damascus and lay the foundation for three other projects, to attract foreign investment and foreign-currency. Moreover, it was able to achieve higher production in Cotton and olive crops thus allowing it to generate much-needed foreign currency. In the field of production, Syria was able to launch a trial phase of four new gas compressors that will eventually increase the gas production of a Russian-built plant in Homs. On the inter-national front, Syria held a Jordanian-Syrian Economic Forum in Damascus, that would strengthen trade relations between the two countries and attract more Jordanian companies to the Syrian market.
Cyprus
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 596,297
Deaths: 1,191
As of 15 October 2022, a total of 1,824,911 vaccine doses have been administered.
President Nicos Anastasiades, while speaking at the Economist conference in Nicosia, claimed he is optimistic about the coming year. Photo credit: In Cyprus.
Contrary to the situation in Europe, forecasts for Cyprus’s economy appear to be positive. As such, it appears that it will grow by 5.7% for 2022. According to President Nicos Anastasiades, the public finances are set to return to a surplus of at least €350 million in 2023. Moreover, there is a significant reduction in public debt, which is expected to fall to 93.6 per cent this year and to 87.5 per cent in 2023. As for the unemployment rate it is decreasing and expected to fluctuate to below 7% in 2022 and to 6.4% in 2023. Inflation however is set to increase to 5.2% and remaining below the EU average of 6.8%. Such positive macroeconomic indicators are a result of prudent fiscal policies that allowed Cyprus to take decisions related to businesses, employers and the vulnerable citizens in times of need. Hence, Cyprus created a healthy economic atmosphere without jeopardizing the state’s access to funding or downgrading its credibility. Being a tiny Island that prides itself with innovation, it launched the Cyprus Tech Ecosystem Map which would act as a bridge between local tech and international businesses and investment communities. Also, the investment funds sector has recorded an upward trajectory and has developed at a rapid pace in recent years. For instance, Cyprus’ total Assets Under Management (AuM) have risen from €6.3 billion in 2018 to €11.1 billion in the first quarter of 2022. All these facts simply suggest Cyprus is heading along the right path and is becoming a model state for other countries to imitate.
2. THE REFUGEE SITUATION
Egypt
A rescued ship, once heading to Malta, was returned back to Egypt. NGOs say Malta’s decision to direct the refugees to Egypt breached the 1951 Geneva Convention, which states that countries should not expel or return a person “to the frontiers of territories where his life of freedom would be threatened”. [1]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 676,606 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of October.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for October, are distributed as follows:
-201,570 in Amman Governorate (29.8 %)
-170,278 in Mafraq Governorate (25.2%)
-136,064 in Irbid Governorate (20.2%)
-99,019 in Zarqa Governorate (14.6%)
-17,868 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
-13,254 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
-9,137 in Jarash Governorate (1.4%)
-8,521 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
-8,469 in Maan Governorate (1.2%)
-6,353 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
-3,867 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
-1,633 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
The US provided $22 million to help the UN give cash handouts to Syrian refugees to buy food in Jordan.[2]
The International Rescue Committee in Jordan implemented a remote community health volunteer program for refugee patients with Hypertension and Diabetes.[3]
Iraq
[During this month, displacement statistics have not been updated by the UNHCR team]
The UNHCR states that there are currently 265,384 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of September, are distributed as follows:
-133,773 in Erbil (50.4%)
-85,498 in Dahuk (32.2%)
-34,689 in Sulaymaniyah (13.1%)
-1,662 in Anbar (0.6%)
-9,762 in other areas (3.7%)[4]
According to the IOM 62,784 individuals have been displaced due to drought, land degradation and increased salinity in important rivers.[5]
In Baghdad, 120 displaced Christian families are under the threat of eviction. The building they inhabit is wanted by entrepreneurs for a shopping center project. [6]
Lebanon
Since October, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 825,081.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
-324,141 in Bekaa (39.3%)
-227,875 in North Lebanon (27.6%)
-182,979 in Beirut (22.2%)
-90,086 in South Lebanon (10.9%)[7]
According to President Michel Aoun Lebanon will soon begin returning Syrian refugees to their home country in batches.[8]
Amnesty international condemned the Government’s decision to begin returning of refugees claiming that conditions for a safe return are still not present.[9]
The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) assisted 1.7 million people during September. 4,600 Tons of food and 24 Million USD were distributed among these people.[10]
Syria
The UN estimates that 14.6 million people need humanitarian assistance across the country, a 9 per cent increase from the previous year. The security situation in parts of the country is unpredictable, and the economic situation is increasingly dire. Economic deterioration is a major driver of needs.[11]
According to OCHA, between January and August 2022, an estimated 4.62 million people were reached on average each month with some form of humanitarian assistance.[12]
Since September 2022, northeast and northwest Syria have been facing a major cholera outbreak. First linked to the contaminated water near the Euphrates River and the severe water shortage in the north of Syria, the outbreak has now spread across the country, and more than 13,000 suspected cases have been reported, including 60 deaths.[13]
The UNICEF delivered lifesaving health and water, hygiene, and sanitation supplies to Syria earlier to scale up efforts to halt the cholera outbreak. [14]
The SRTF announced the delivery of tractors and agriculture equipment, under its agriculture intervention “Agriculture Support to Farmers in Ar-Raqqa and Deir Ez-Zor Governorates.
The SRTF announced the delivery of 195 MT of hard wheat to flour mills in Northeast Syria, under the Food Security intervention “Enhancing Food Security in Northeast Syria”.[15]
Cyprus
According to the European Union’s annual report on migrant and asylum, refugees and migrants crossing over from the Turkish-Cypriot occupied side of the island increased by 122 percent in the first seven months of 2022.[16]
According to Interior Minister Nicos Nouris, the green line separating Cyprus from the occupied part of the island will be fenced off to prevent entry of illegal migrants.[17]
Communication and Public Relations Department
[1] Aljazeera, Oct 20, 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/20/ngos-accuse-malta-of-breaking-law-by-directing-migrants-to-egypt
[2] The National News, Oct 3, 2022, https://www.thenationalnews.com/mena/jordan/2022/10/03/us-steps-in-to-help-bridge-syrian-refugee-food-funding-gap-in-jordan/
[3] OCHA, Oct 19, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/community-health-volunteers-deliver-quality-care-refugees-hypertension-and-diabetes-amid-covid-19-treatment-interruptions
[4] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[5] Relief Web, Oct 10, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/dtm-emergency-tracking-climate-induced-displacement-southern-iraq-data-collection-period-1-15-september-2022
[6] Fides, October 15, 2022, http://www.fides.org/en/news/72938-ASIA_IRAQ_Eviction_for_Christian_refugees_in_Baghdad_the_building_where_they_live_must_become_a_shopping_center
[7] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[8] Al Jazeera, Oct 12, 2022, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/10/12/lebanon-to-begin-returning-refugees-back-to-syria-in-batches
[9] Amnesty International, October 14, 2022, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2022/10/lebanon-stop-the-so-called-voluntary-returns-of-syrian-refugees/
[10] OCHA, Oct 17, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/wfp-lebanon-situation-report-september-2022
[11] OCHA, Oct 18, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/syria-unhcr-operational-update-september-2022
[12] OCHA, Oct 20, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/syrian-arab-republic-overview-humanitarian-response-within-syria-january-august-2022
[13] OCHA, Oct 14, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/cholera-spreads-across-syria-putting-vulnerable-people-serious-risk
[14] OCHA, Oct 20, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/lifesaving-supplies-arrive-syria-halt-spread-cholera
[15] OCHA, Oct 13, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-food-security-intervention-receives-its-first-shipment-wheat-northeast-syria
[16] The National Herald, October 7, 2022, https://www.thenationalherald.com/cyprus-sees-122-spike-in-migrants-most-from-occupied-side/
[17] Cyprus Mail, October 16, 2022, https://cyprus-mail.com/2022/10/16/cyprus-has-no-choice-but-to-fence-off-green-line-interior-minister/