The Year of Great Shifts
Report: January 2022
2022 is the year of great shifts. Source: knowledge.insead.edu
According to global data and analysis, 2022 may be the year where major geopolitical shifts will take place. Nations may either choose to engage each other at a diplomatic level or might find excuses for armed escalation. Both way the Middle East will be impacted by these alterations, and it is up to all nations within this region to work with one another to avoid division during a time when we need unity.
1- The Socio-Economic Situation
Egypt
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-410,098 corona confirmed cases
-343,971 recovered
-22,368 deaths
Reform program is behind World Bank’s expectations with 5.5% growth in Egypt economy, January 17, 2022, photo credit: The World Bank.
Egypt began the year with declaring a new mining plan that aims to increase the mining sector’s contribution to GDP tenfold by 2026. Part of the plan will be launched in March, with Egypt hosting a virtual global mining show bringing together international mining corporations, investors, solution providers and governments. With the government making great strides in other aspects of the economy, this new approach will benefit local and international companies wishing to invest in the country. Of course, this will allow Egypt to increase imports while being able to better meet domestic needs.
What’s more impressive however is Egypt’s attempt to convert its economy into a Green Economy. Recently a Norwegian clean energy company called Scatec, started the process of creating green energy bonds. The plan is to issue around $340 million in green bonds, secured by its six solar energy plants in Benban complex that has a production capacity of 390 megawatts.
As a result of such measures and previous reform programs Egypt had implemented, the World Bank continues to expect that the country’s economy will continue to grow by 5.5%. However, this figure is an approximation as Egypt continues to attract more investments and projects which will yield exceptional results.
Jordan
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-1,141,048 corona confirmed cases
-1,082,207 recovered
-13,073 deaths
Jordan - Investment affairs confined to newly established ministry, source: MENA FN
In its attempt to further modernize the economy, Jordan's Prime Minister Bisher Al-Khasawneh declared that the country will begin working with telecom industries to launch 5G mobile infrastructure services in the country. According to him, the 5G network is an economic facilitator and a tool that can attract investment. It is also an approach which falls in line with the Central Bank of Jordan’s plan to mitigate the effects of the corona pandemic and to encourage the private sector to create 60,000 jobs for Jordanians. With a push from the IMF and its several disbursements of the $1.5 billion loan, economic recovery will complement similar International Finance Corporation (IFC)’s investment programs. Another attempt to restart the economy is the appointment of a new central bank governor of Jordan Dr Adel Al Sharkas whose qualifications are seen to be in line with what Jordan wants to achieve. Also, the Cabinet approved an amended draft that transfers the tasks entrusted to the Investment Authority established under Investment Law No. (30) of 2014 to the Investment Ministry. The move is said to bolster interdepartmental coordination to implement projects.
Iraq
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-2,154,237 corona confirmed cases
-2,078,422 recovered
-24,287 deaths
Indian state refiner Hindustan Petroleum Corp. will lift 45 percent more oil from Iraq this year to meet its expanded refining capacity, photo credit: arabnews.com
Similarly, to Jordan, Iraq decided to begin the year with certain changes. Iraq’s Council of Representatives (parliament) convened on Jan. 9 and elected Mohammed al-Halbusi for a second term to form a new government that can address the inbound investments coming to the country, and hopefully push for more changes. Also, India decided to increase Iraqi oil imports by 45% to meet the needs of its growing industrial sector. Not only the move will prove to be lucrative for Iraq, but will also prove to Asian markets that it is reliable partner and will therefore increase the country’s share in Asia.
In terms of the Middle Eastern region, Saudi Arabia and Iraq are currently enhancing security and economic ties. For instance, Saudi Minister of Communications and Information Technology Eng. Abdullah Bin Amer Al-Swaha met with Minister of Communications of the Republic of Iraq Arkan Shihab Al-Shaibani, to enhance cooperation in the fields of digital transformation and the development of communications and infrastructure.
Lebanon
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-865,229 corona confirmed cases
-682,977 recovered
-9,487 deaths
Although justice is gaining traction in Lebanon, people must be aware of certain attempts to destabilize the country. Photo credit: https://www.upi.com/
Lebanese welcomed 2022 with nothing but pessimisim; the dollar continued to gain value in the market at the expense of the Lebanese currency forcing more and more people into extreme proverty. Neverthless, something like a miracle occurred when certain parties stopped boycotting ministrial cabinet sessions thus affirming a desire to approve the 2022 budget and to discuss an economic recovery plan. Moreover, central bank governor announced a new set of measures to be taken into account to boost the value of the local currency. As a result, the dollar dropped in one week by about 10000 LBP and road closures and demonstrations stopped, giving leaders a bit of breathing space to constructively plan next steps and meditate on the geopolitical shifts in the region and the world. Although it is a pitty that Lebanese leaders have to always mimic external changes to mask their scandalous actions, hopefully this is a positive step towards rejuvenating the economy.
However, there are still problems Lebanese decision makers have yet to solve. For instance, the internet cuts because of the depletion of fuel reserves, is destablilizing the economic environment and preventing businesses to have added value to the economy. Moreover, poverty levels in Lebanon are still at dangerous levels prompting humanitarian organizations and people involved with the media to warn of fundamentalist sleeper cells operating in Lebanon. These groups appear to be gaining momentum in the poorest areas of Lebanon and might use any pretext to justify violence.
Palestine
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-454,034 corona confirmed cases
-438,173 recovered
-4,787 deaths
Controversial separation wall runs between the Israeli settlement of Pisgat Zeev (left), built in a suburb of East Jerusalem, and the Palestinian Shuafat refugee camp (right) on Feb. 11. AHMAD GHARABLI/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES
Geopolitical tensions continue to inflict significant risks on Palestine’s economy and the wellbeing of its citizens. As opposing forces in the region have declared morbid intentions towards one another, Palestine is at risk of becoming a pawn of competing powers. Meanwhile, the UNRWA appealed to 1.6 billion USD in assistance amid difficult socioeconomic circumstances. Also, civil society organizations issued joint calls to maintain and increase their funding. Similarly, nations such as Jordan have been stepping assistance to break the economic blockade imposed on this tiny entity.
For the time being, the situation is still obscure, as no one knows what is being discussed behind closed doors. Hopefully, with the easing of tensions between regional powers such as Saudi Arabia and Iran, there will be more room for cooperation on vital matters such as fighting poverty and economic collapse, which is one of the main reasons behind any war.
Syria
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-50,985 corona confirmed cases
-36,203 recovered
-2,968 deaths
With China expanding in the region, Syria can expect positive implications to its economy. Photo credit: Global Times.
In addition to the easing of tensions with the rest of the Arab world and especially the Gulf, Syria just embarked on a new stage. On the 12th of January, Syria signed a memorandum of understanding to on China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) as the country is seeking post-war reconstruction. Just like its neighbor Cyprus, Syria is looking forward to better economic prospects. Of course, there are still insurgencies taking place within the country as images of war have not fully disappeared. Nevertheless, the Arab world is keen on restoring diplomatic ties with the country as the whole debacle had only yielded misery and droves of refugees. Some analysts speculate that the decision to engage Syria in this manner is an attempt to put a lid on incoming refugees as the contraction of global economy have impacted poor and rich countries alike.
Naming Syria as the host for 2024 Arab Energy Conference is alone an indicator that Arab leaders are waking up to the necessity of cooperation during a time energy crises are becoming rampant. As cooperation between Arab states becomes a prevalent theme to boost national economies, this might open doors to enact necessary reforms that would give trade a push. As Syria is located right between Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan, the country can be a pivotal element in enhancing inter-state cooperation between Arab states seeking to diversify their economies.
Cyprus
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-239,073 corona confirmed cases
-124,370 recovered
-712 deaths
Cyprus is reinventing itself as one of the most innovative economies in the world. Cyprus Mail.com
The Recovery and Resilience Plan outlined by the Cypriot government made it possible for large projects to take place. For instance, the €133 million EuroAsia Interconnector project, which will connect Cyprus to the EU electricity network and boost renewable energy production, will alone push the economy into further digitalization. Moreover, investments hailing on Cyprus and the great economic benefits that followed, paved the way for construction projects in the country to increase by 17.3% as more permits were issued. According to the data, permits increased in all districts, with the biggest increases recorded in Larnaca (38.8%) and Paphos (29.4%). New building permits increased by 12.3% in Limassol, by 10.7% in Nicosia and by 5.6% in the Famagusta region. Although the rise in construction can be partially attributed to migrants from other countries such as Lebanon, Cyprus’s willingness to crack down on money laundering operations and corruption, and it’s strive to transform into a greener economy, made it a very attractive destination for companies and affluent people alike. As a result of such changes, the Cypriot economy is set to recover the output lost during the 2020 COVID crisis and will continue to grow with an average of 3.7 per cent in the years 2022 – 2024.
2- The Refugee Situation
Egypt
Egypt's president has criticized Europe for refusing to take in refugees claiming that his own country has taken in millions of people. He claimed European countries have only taken five or ten thousand refugees each.[1]
Egypt has a pioneering position on addressing the issue of refugees worldwide, Laurent De Boeck, chief of Egypt's Mission of the UN International Organization for Immigration (IOM) claimed. [2]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 672,952registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of January.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for January, are distributed as follows:
-199,204 in Amman Governorate (29.6 %)
-168,792 in Mafraq Governorate (25.1%)
-136,279 in Irbid Governorate (20.3%)
-98,483 in Zarqa Governorate (14.6%)
-17,978 in Balqa Governorate (2.7%)
-13,438 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
-9,295 in Jarash Governorate (1.4%)
-8,532 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
-8,352 in Maan Governorate (1.2%)
-6,435 in Ajlun Governorate (1.0%)
-3,814 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
-1,705 in Tafilah Governorate (0.3%)
The United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) in Jordan announced in a press conference with Jordanian media Sunday that 5,500 Syrian refugees had left Jordan and returned to Syria in 2021, a small fraction of the total number of Syrian refugees living in Jordan.[3]
Qatar Red Crescent Society (QRCS) launched a medical convoy in Amman, Jordan, to perform general surgeries for Syrian refugees and Jordanian patients.[4]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 254,561 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of January, are distributed as follows:
-128,927 in Erbil (50.6%)
-86,156 in Dahuk (33.8%)
-32,339 in Sulaymaniyah (12.7%)
-4,107 in Anbar (1.6%)
-3,032 in other areas (1.2%)[5]
The United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) in Iraq welcomes an additional PLN 1 million (approximately US$ 244,000) contribution from the Government of Poland to its flagship Funding Facility for Stabilization (FFS). [6]
UNDP Iraq and IOM, in partnership with the Office of the National Security Advisory have brought together over 35 community and tribal leaders from Anbar in a workshop aimed at fostering acceptance and understanding among local leaders to facilitate the return and reintegration of displaced Iraqis back into their communities.[7]
Lebanon
Since the beginning of January, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 840,929.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
-328,677 in Bekaa (39.1%)
-228,802 in North Lebanon (27.2%)
-192,138 in Beirut (22.8%)
-91,312 in South Lebanon (10.9%)[8]
The United Nations declared that $87.5 million is needed from the international community to reach Palestinian refugees living in impoverished Lebanon. [9]
Refugee Protection Watch released a report which found that 70 percent of Syrians in Lebanon have received no humanitarian assistance since the beginning of last year, and half of Syrian refugee children in Lebanon – 250,000 kids – aren’t in school.[10]
The United States announced the allocation of $40 Million in additional humanitarian assistance for vulnerable people affected by the crisis in Lebanon.[11]
Syria
Strong winds damaged at least 110 displacement sites across Idleb and northern Aleppo, affecting 140,000 people. Heavy rainfall affected at least 218 displacement sites and 60,000 people. Over 7,000 tents were either partially damaged or completely destroyed.
Finland contributes additional €1.1 million to give more children in Syria access to education.
There was a significant reduction in airstrikes in December, while artillery shelling was reported most days. The frequency of airstrikes increased at the end of December and in the first days of January. The Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) reported that in December airstrikes and shelling killed three civilians, including two children, and injured 16 civilians, including four civilian women and six children.
At the start of 2022, there has been an increase in airstrikes on infrastructure, including farms and water pumping stations. On 2 January, an airstrike hit Arshani water station. The station provides water to 225,000 people in Idleb city and is supported by an NGO. There was significant damage.
Food security across the country is in decline due to the impact of COVID-19 on food markets and the economy, a weak Syrian Pound (SYP), high fuel prices, and acute lack of livelihood opportunities.[12]
Cyprus
The UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres recommends renewal of Unficyp’s mandate for another six months, as he criticized the government over its treatment of asylum seekers.[13]
A brawl among young Syrian refugees living in Chlorakas was a spark for unrest and protests by locals, who have been demanding the relocation of migrants saying the area has been turned into a ‘concentration camp. [14]
Communication and Public Relations Department
[1] Middle East Monitor, January 12, 2022, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20220112-despite-heavy-criticism-of-egypts-treatment-of-refugees-sisi-lashes-out-at-europe/
[2] All Africa, January 16, 2022, https://allafrica.com/stories/202201170433.html
[3] Jurist, January 3, 2022, https://www.jurist.org/news/2022/01/unhcr-in-jordan-announces-few-syrian-refugees-returned-to-syria-in-2021/
[4] OCHA, Jan 10, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/qrcs-launches-general-surgery-convoy-jordan-enar
[5] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[6] OCHA, Relief Web, January 19, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/poland-reaffirms-partnership-undp-support-vulnerable-iraqis-enarku
[7]OCHA, Jan 18, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/undp-and-iom-facilitate-workshop-iraqi-government-agencies-and-anbar-community-leaders
[8] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[9] Al Monitor, January 19, 2022, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2022/01/un-agency-seeks-urgent-support-palestinian-refugees-lebanon
[10] The New Humanitarian, January 18, 2022, https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/opinion/2022/1/18/Syrian-refugees-Lebanon-help-protection-pressure-leave
[11] OCHA, Jan 19, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/united-states-announces-40-million-additional-humanitarian-assistance-vulnerable
[12] OCHA, Jan 17, 2022, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/syrian-arab-republic-developments-north-west-syria-and-ras-al-ain-tell-2
[13] Cyprus Mail, Jan 1, 2022, https://cyprus-mail.com/2022/01/01/un-chief-censures-cyrus-over-treatment-of-asylum-seekers/
[14] Cyprus Mail, January 18, 2022, https://cyprus-mail.com/2022/01/18/our-view-an-impossible-situation-in-chlorakas/