Sanctions and Ailing Economies
Report: 1 to 9 May 2021
Sanctions and state corruption are seriously affecting ME citizens
COVID-19 over the past year or so have widened economic disparity in the region. Countries with the exception of Cyprus and Jordan, have still to launch a meaningful reform program to improve the livelihoods of their citizens. Instead, corruption and sanctions still mess the scene and everyone in it.
1- The socio-economic situation
Egypt
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-210,489 corona confirmed cases
-159,999 recovered
-12,445 deaths
“We see strong medium-term growth prospects for Egypt, barring the pandemic’s near-term impact, underpinned by the ongoing implementation of fiscal and economic reforms.” S&P. May 8, 2021 https://www.thenationalnews.com/.
Despite Egypt’s economic loss of 23.6 billion USD[1] in 2020 because of the pandemic, the country is set to grow by 2.5%. S&P Global affirmed Egypt’s “B/B” sovereign credit rating as it expects the country’s foreign exchange reserve buffers and its access to debt markets to help cover its temporarily higher external financing needs. As a result of higher public and private sector investment as the country emerges from the pandemic, the Egyptian economy to grow by 4.8 per cent next year and by 5.4 per cent in 2023.
Commenting on Egypt’s last year performance, Mohamed Maait, Egypt's finance minister explained that the tourism industry was expected to generate 14 billion USD in revenues, but the pandemic made sure to change that. He also pointed out that his ministry had reduced the budget deficit prediction for the financial year 2020-21 to "6.7 percent, down from 7.8 percent"[2] and that the government launched a new program which focuses on boosting private sector growth, increasing exports and accelerating the digitization of the economy.[3]
Jordan
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-665, 735 corona confirmed cases
-596,293 recovered
-7773 deaths
Plan aims to achieve integration among all sectors, shore up hard-hit sectors according to priority, April 3, 2021, Jordan Times.
The opening of the Naseeb-Jaber crossing with Syria, had limited implications due to issues regarding productivity. As for Jordan, this will allow it to empty surplus of products, thus benefiting many of its sectors. Despite this positive action, Jordan still has to address a list of economic problems. For instance, the rate of Jordanian women’s economic participation stood at 14.2 per cent in 2020, meaning one in seven were economically active. Also, the unemployment rate remains high at 24.7%. Nevertheless, the recent series of events have ushered a more serious program which was received from international organizations. The coming month will reveal what comes ahead. [4]
Iraq
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-924,946 corona confirmed cases
-814,853 recovered
-14,713 deaths
During a visit to Baghdad, Iranian Minister of Cooperative, Labor, and Welfare Mohammad Shariatmadari made arrangements to sign a five-year economic cooperation agreement with the Iraqi officials. April, 12, 2021, https://www.tasnimnews.com/.
Years of conflict have afflicted the oil sector, the main pillar of Iraq’s economy, leading to the closure of land routes into Syria and Jordan and a drop in exports. The economic deterioration and job loss have haunted various communities and youth— who are more at-risk of being recruited by armed groups or taking part in extremist activities, including transnational organized crime, to meet their financial needs.[5] Nevertheless, HH Pope’s visit had positive implications in terms of unity; Muslims, Christians and other members of Iraq’s religious minorities such as the Yazidis and Sabaeans, attended a prayer in the ancient city of Ur, marking a positive transition in Iraq.[6]
Lebanon
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-496,846 corona confirmed cases
-402,172 recovered
-6661 deaths
As the deepening economic crisis continues, the soaring prices of basic necessities like bread have pushed many Lebanese below the poverty line. May 9, 2021, Al Jazeera.
Lebanon in May reached a critical point in its dire economic conditions. News reports of foreign reserve depletion flood the media as the government will no longer be able to subsidize essential items Lebanese need. Meanwhile, a witch-hunt is being carried out by General Prosecutor Ghada Aoun into the murky monetary and judicial system in Lebanon. Will she be able to find answers or is she searching in the wrong places? After the end of Ramadan, a sequence of events mimicking the economic deterioration will start to unfold. Either politicians will gather to break this spell before it is too late, or the country will enter the next stage of fading away.
Palestine
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-268,132 corona confirmed cases
-232,960 recovered
-2,860 deaths
A protester carries a sign during a demonstration by Palestinian, Israeli, and foreign protesters against the newly opened Route 4370, in the West Bank, on Jan. 23, 2019. ABBAS MOMANI/AFP VIA GETTY IMAGES.
Prime Minister Mohammed Ishtay declared Palestine is finally in the recovery stage as a significant drop in coronavirus infections had occurred in the West Bank. However, he noted that the corona situation in the Gaza strip is still dangerous. The Palestinian government is setting its hopes on 500,000 doses of the Russian Sputnik vaccine and 4 million doses of the US Pfizer vaccine to solve this problem. Moreover, the World Bank launched a new 4-year assistance strategy for the Palestinian territories. The strategy will continue to support resilience of livelihoods and the delivery of service and will put greater importance on entrepreneurship investment for a well-connected Palestinian economy and long-term economic returns. For the time being, Palestine will now have to only worry about the aggressive Israeli actions in Jerusalem and elsewhere. [7]
Syria
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-20, 226 corona confirmed cases
-14,012 recovered
-1,378 deaths
“The economic situation in the country is terrible. The people are struggling just to get a little bit of bread. The regime cannot find fuel for the people” one citizen explains. April 15, 2021, https://www.dailysabah.com/.
Despite the exposition of the illicit drug trade involving Syria and Lebanon, Saudi Arabia and Syria seem to be engaging in forward diplomatic dialogue. Even rumors of high ranking security officials secretly visiting Syria, took the media by surprise. Is there a possible rapprochement taking place? One cannot be but hopeful as conditions in the country have reached a breaking point and is in need of dire humanitarian intervention. The persisting security situation in the country compounded by accidents at several oil refineries[8] and grain shortage are making it difficult for the government to respond. At the present moment, Syria seems to be functioning at a reactive level; it is engaging in tit for tat economic measures as it struggles.
The value of the Syrian pound has leached low levels, sighting the precarious situation in the country and the state of the Syrian people; Hyperinflation is impaling citizens’ purchasing power to buy necessary items. To make matters worse, the Caesar Act is still in place, harming both Syria and Lebanon. Currently, Syria is still attempting to supplement losses with a partnership with a few allies. Even those friendships have overreached their usefulness, as those countries too are struggling with their own economic woes.
Cyprus
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-51,505 corona confirmed cases
-39,061 recovered
-272 deaths
Other European countries, including Denmark, have adopted or considering the implementation of the so-called Covid pass May 6, 2021, Cyprus Mail.
Cyprus introduced ‘Covid pass’ causing a mixed reaction among health professionals, business owners, NGO’s and citizens; some were very eager to restart the economy while others warned of human rights violation. With the lifting of the two-week lockdown on May 10, the state plans to introduce the pass that will be required for people to visit cafes, restaurants, shopping malls, gyms, theatres and places of worship.[9] Some have cited that this move is also unconstitutional, however, it seems to be a practical step to improve the economy.
Communication and Public Relations Department
[1] Middle East Monitor, April 29, 2021, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20210429-egypt-economy-loses-23-6bn-in-2020/
[2] The National News, May 8, 2021, https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/economy/s-p-affirms-egypt-s-rating-on-robust-reserves-and-access-to-debt-1.1218830
[3] Bloomberg April 27, 2021, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-27/egypt-vows-to-boost-private-sector-growth-in-new-economic-plan
[4] Al-Monitor, April 25, 2021, https://www.al-monitor.com/originals/2021/04/opening-jordanian-syrian-crossing-politically-motivated
[5] OCHA, April 22, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/eu-supports-iom-and-unodc-partnership-strengthen-border-security-iraq-road-economic
[6] GRI, May 3, 2021, https://globalriskinsights.com/2021/05/iraqs-national-dialogue/
[7] Foreign Policy, May 6, 2021, https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/05/06/israels-apartheid-doesnt-make-a-difference/
[8] Aljazeera, May 9, 2021, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/5/9/fire-hits-oil-refinery-in-syrias-homs-state-media
[9] Cyprus Mail, May 6, 2021, https://cyprus-mail.com/2021/05/06/coronavirus-is-coronapass-overreach-or-essential-to-reopen-economy/