Are We in the Recovery Stage?
Report 1 to 13 April 2021
The IMF, after revising its regional projections of the MENA GDP, ramped it up to 4%. April 11, 2021, ahram.org.eg
Recently, the IMF revised its projections of the real GDP growth in the (MENA) region to increase it to 4 percent in 2021, an upgrade of 0.9 percent relative to the fund’s October projections. This is due to the fact that MENA countries have managed to lessen the impacts of the pandemic on their economies through certain policies that set the balance between the people’s health and the protection of the economy. However, such an indication does not encompass all countries, especially those still waning to several domestic and international challenges.
The socio-economic situation
Egypt
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-210,489 corona confirmed cases
-159,999 recovered
-12,445 deaths
Egypt’s Ambassador to the UK Tarek Adel held a video meeting with European Bank for Reconstruction and Development to address the extended cooperation between Egypt and the EBRD, April 12, 2021, https://dailynewsegypt.com/.
Among all the countries covered by this report, Egypt continues to be the star of the region; it has managed to counter the crisis by using cost-effective means and it kept its positive economic growth at 3.6 percent during the 2019-2020 fiscal year. Very recently, Egypt’s foreign exchange reserves rose for the ninth consecutive month in March by $136 million, reaching $40.337 billion. Moreover, it had succeeded in reducing its trade deficit from $3.85 billion to $3.15 billion during one year.
In line with Egypt’s strategy for achieving sustainable development and to signal to the world that it’s an attractive destination for stakeholders to invest in, it is moving in the Green Economy direction. Currently, there are talks with the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) to expand the financial institution's support for the green economy and sustainable development in the North African country.
Jordan
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-665, 735 corona confirmed cases
-596,293 recovered
-7773 deaths
Plan aims to achieve integration among all sectors, shore up hard-hit sectors according to priority, April 3, 2021, Jordan Times.
The Economic and Social Council, on the 3rd of April, revealed additional details relating to the economic recovery plan submitted to Prime Minister and Minister of Defence Bisher Al Khasawneh last month. Designed to bail the country from the economic hardship it is facing, the three-year plan looks promising; it aims to achieve integration among all sectors and bolster sectors hit hard by the pandemic. The framework will provide support, ranging from immediate support to labor and economic sectors. To enable the rapid recovery of the economy, complimentary and integrated support to vital sectors, will be implemented. After the turmoil that hit Jordan at the beginning of April, this move is definitely a positive indicator that decision makers are aware of the socioeconomic challenges and the need to address them.
Iraq
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-924,946 corona confirmed cases
-814,853 recovered
-14,713 deaths
During a visit to Baghdad, Iranian Minister of Cooperative, Labor, and Welfare Mohammad Shariatmadari made arrangements to sign a five-year economic cooperation agreement with the Iraqi officials. April, 12, 2021, https://www.tasnimnews.com/.
Despite the socioeconomic challenges that the country is facing, Iraq, during this month succeeded in securing some impressive deals to boost its economy. During a visit to Baghdad, Iranian Minister of Cooperative, Labor, and Welfare Mohammad Shariatmadari signed a five-year economic cooperation agreement with Iraq. From the other side of the political spectrum, Iraq also signed a deal with Saudi Arabia and the UAE for investment projects in Iraq, worth more than $6 billion. Moreover, Saudi Arabia and Iraq agreed to establish a joint fund, with an estimated capital of $3 billion, as a contribution from the kingdom in promoting investment in Iraq’s economic fields. All of this indicates that the Iraqi government is not only achieving economic gains but is also being able to manage its relationship with regional players of opposite political spheres.
Lebanon
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-496,846 corona confirmed cases
-402,172 recovered
-6661 deaths
FILE - A passenger plane flies over Beirut, Lebanon, a capital in darkness because of a power outage, March 29, 2021.
If one were to take a stroll on Lebanon’s streets, one can hear people reminiscing about the good old days: “when there was war, things were better”. This is not an indication that Lebanese have a lust for blood and violence; it means that even during the ugliness of war, there were at least some opportunities to make ends meet and put food on the table. Nowadays, all what defines Lebanon is poverty, hunger, and illness. To add to the misery of the Lebanese, Lebanon's caretaker Finance Minister Ghazi recently announced that the country would run out of money to fund basic imports by the end of May. Wazni’s announcement came after the approval by the parliament of a 200 million USD loan to the country’s electricity company. The move was prompted by a warning from the energy ministry that money had run out for electricity generation beyond the end of the month. Already one out of four major power plants have shutdown, prompting Lebanese people to begin preprations for the coming blackouts.
Palestine
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-268132 corona confirmed cases
-232960 recovered
-2860 deaths
https://www.aa.com.tr/.
When the Trump administration was in office, it cut financial assistance to UNRWA and the Palestinian people. However, things changed when Biden became president; different rhetoric about the White House’s stance towards Palestine started to emerge. As such, a plan was unveiled during this month: US President Joe Biden's administration will provide $235m of aid to Palestinians, restoring part of the assistance cut by Donald Trump. Two-thirds will go to UNRWA, which has suffered a financial crisis since it lost $360m of US funding in 2018. The funding is in addition to the $15m in assistance to address the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic and food insecurity in the West Bank and Gaza that the US announced last month.
Syria
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-20, 226 corona confirmed cases
-14,012 recovered
-1,378 deaths
INGOS claim that emergency-style strategies are not working. newseu.cgtn.
The United States Agency for International Development (USAID), during the Brussels V Conference, claimed economic situation in Syria is at its worst since the conflict began a decade ago. In just a year, food prices have risen by 230 percent and there are now 12.4 million hungry people in Syria. Also at the meeting, the UK charity group Oxfam warned of increasing child labor, with girls between the ages of 11 and 14, working 12-hour shifts for $3 a day; some parents have even started to marry off their children to decrease household expenses.
Despite this bleak situation, attendees of the conference admitted that something needs to be changed; they agreed that there should be a shift, from an emergency style to one that will enable Syrians to become self-reliant. Self-sustainability is definitely a popular notion by which many organizations are resorting to; over time emergency strategies can be costly and most probably will prevent organizations from reaching their intended goals. As such, the term ‘donor fatigue’ comes to memory.
Moreover, INGOS face the problem of being caught in the middle: many of Syria’s problems today, in addition to the corruption in the country, have to address the repercussions of imposed sanctions. Many of the sanctions-imposed target institutions or Business men that hold the key to Syria’s economy, and the downfall of the economy have inflicted hardship on the Syrian people.
In addition to the shift towards a strategy which endorses sustainable development, INGOs must look at ways to coerce western governments to change their strategy towards Syria. Up until now, their strategies have only prolonged suffering and made a population grow hungrier and warier.
Cyprus
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-51,505 corona confirmed cases
-39061 recovered
-272 deaths
Finance Minister Constantinos Petrides forecasts a strong recovery after vaccination rollout. April 11, 2021, https://cyprus-mail.com/.
Cyprus’s attempts to revitalize the economy, forced to borrow money from international lenders. This had led Cyprus’ public debt to widen to €26 bln, or 124% of GDP. As bad as the news may sound, Finance Minister Constantinos Petrides assured that such an act is necessary to allow Cyprus to get back on its feet; it gave Cyprus the capacity to support the economy with immediate interventions whenever needed. Moreover, it was a step that will allow country not to risk downgrades or public finances sustainability. The public debt increase comes amid suitable borrowing conditions due to Central Banks’ monetary policy and Cyprus’ continued investment-grade rating.
Communication and Public Relations Department