Good Prospects or Just Wishful Thinking?
Report: 16 to 31 January 2021
For long, the pandemic has negatively affected the global economy. With the arrival of several types of vaccines, will the above graph be flipped upside down?, source: insamer.com
Since January 2020, we notice a huge correlation of the coronavirus indicator with the general socioeconomic situation, which has passed through dramatic deterioration and radical changes. However, seeing that the vaccine is being distributed worldwide, positive implications on the economy will incrementally follow. As such, throughout January, positive forecasts in most Middle Eastern nations came to light.
1- The socio-economic situation
Egypt has recorded a significant decrease in the number of COVID-19 cases, leading officials to believe that the country has passed the peak of the second wave. File/AFP.
Egypt
On the macroeconomic scale, Egypt is expecting a rise by 5.4% in terms of GDP over 2021. Such an assumption is buffed by the “World Economic Situation and Prospects 2021” report issued by the United Nations and the IMF which also forecasted, although at approximately half that rate. Egypt’s success probably stems from higher fiscal expenditures supported by foreign currency financing secured through multilateral institutions and an easing of monetary stance in 2020. Moreover, the positive forecast is due the fact that Egypt is emerging as a critical hub for global powers seeking to export a coronavirus vaccine to the developing world. Hence, with the vaccines it will receive and the production capabilities the nation has, Egypt is bound to have good prospects during this year.
People wait their turn to receive a dose of vaccine against the coronavirus COVID-19 disease, outside a vaccination center in the Jordanian capital Amman, on January 13, 2020. Daily Star.
Jordan
Like Egypt, international institutions forecasted growth for Jordan’s economy. For instance, the World Bank claimed that Jordan is expected to grow by 1.8% in 2021 and rise to 2.0% in 2022. Meanwhile, Jordan’s Finance Minister estimated the growth by 2.5% in 2021, depending on the country’s ability to fight corona. Unfortunately, covid-19 is still at large in the kingdom and is paralyzing daily life. Nevertheless, the country was able to initiate its vaccination campaign and is determined to minimize the effects of the pandemic.
Iraq, struggling to Pay Debts and Salaries, Plunges into Economic Crisis. New York Times.
Iraq
After attempts to stabilize the economy, such as the devaluation of the dinar, Iraq still has gloomy prospects as economists predict an economic collapse. Saddled with corruption and worsening security conditions, Iraqis also have to fight the ongoing pandemic. This prompted Iraq to seek the International Monetary Fund for a $6 billion loan to prop up its ailing economy. Although it is still suffering from COVID-19, its main problem is the corruption pandemic rampant in its government sector. As such, The Iraqi administration wrote in major fiscal reforms into its 2021 budget in an attempt to mitigate the effects of the pandemic and of low oil prices on the population. Although lauded by the IMF, this step is short of adopting true reforms that target Iraq’s main ailment.
Caretaker Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni and Jihane Rached on behalf of the World Bank sign an agreement in Beirut, Jan. 29, 2021. The Daily Star/Dalati Nohra, HO.
Lebanon
It is no secret that the country’s economy is in tatters. Fueled by dollar shortage, political gridlocks, and rampant corruption, the nation is heading to a failed state scenario. The country continues to have no government in place while suffering from a massive outbreak of covid-19 which has recorded the highest figures among Middle East countries. Currently, Lebanese are following news regarding Swiss authorities’ request that Lebanon’s judiciary cooperate with a money-laundering investigation into the country’s central bank. The probe centers on $400m in transfers allegedly tied to the bank’s governor of 27 years, Riad Salameh, his brother Raja, and Salameh’s advisor Marianne Al-Hoayek. As such, the interference of foreign nations in Lebanon’s case, gave hope to millions of Lebanese hoping for change in the country.
Moreover, during the end of the month the World Bank signed an agreement with Lebanon, over a 246 million USD loan as part of the Emergency Crisis and COVID-19 Response Social Safety Net Project. According to the press release, Lebanon will be receiving cash assistance for one year through the ESSN project, to support 147,000 extremely poor Lebanese families. The development comes along interpretations that the new US administration is keen on helping Lebanon by adopting a new approach. As such, one may induce that this year, things might change for this ME country.
The Israeli government is not ensuing that COVID-19 vaccines are equally and fairly provided to Palestinians living under its occupation in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, said Amnesty International.
Palestine
Despite promises that the Israeli authorities will transfer vaccines to the Palestinian Authorities, nothing happened. Even the World Heath Organization’s request to give vaccines to Palestine medics was declined. The development came along Palestinian health officials’ warning that a new COVID-19 strain is spreading in the country.
"The new strain of the coronavirus is considered more rapid to spread among the population. Also, it may infect all ages of the people," Mai al-Kaila, Palestinian health minister noted.
With the siege imposed by the Israeli authorities and the infectious disease, Palestinians are once again put in deplorable socioeconomic conditions. Hopefully, with the change in presidency in the US, new policies that would benefit Palestinians will be set in place.
Bashar al-Assad has withstood the threat posed by the decade-long war even as Syria faces its worst food and economic crisis. Sergei Grits/AP.
Syria
The war-ravaged country which had multiple sanctions slapped on its economy, is still struggling. Currently it is suffering from bread and fuel shortages; a dire problem during winter season. To partially mitigate this problem, the Syrian government hiked the price of petrol for the third time within a year and the second time in less than six months. Although the increase is more modest than previous price hikes, deteriorating living conditions worsened by rapidly rising prices have already stoked tensions across the country.
Moreover, the COVID-19 outbreak in Syria continues to spiral out of control while the country struggles with a chronic shortage of hospital beds, testing, water and oxygen. In the North West and as reported by Save the Children, the number of infected people quadrupled between 1 November and 31 December, yet only four additional ventilators and 64 ICU beds have become available in the region.
Police car patrolling the streets to make sure people are abiding by lockdown. Cyprus Mail.
Cyprus
Although the country records lower COVID-19 cases, the country imposed a lockdown when its economy is not in good shape. Being a country which relies on its tourism industry and its summer period, Cyprus did not make ends meet in 2020. However, the country began to vaccinate its citizens hoping to open up its economy. Moreover, the government announced additional support schemes for businesses and the self-employed affected by the latest Covid measures, including grants, payroll subsidies, loan repayment suspension, rent holidays and tax breaks.
2- The refugee situation
Egypt
The UNHCR in Egypt released a report claiming out of 500,000 estimated Syrian refugees in the country, 130,187 are registed.[1]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 662,790 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of January.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for January, are distributed as follows:
-195,107 in Amman Governorate (29.5 %)
-164,531 in Mafraq Governorate (24.9%)
-136,190 in Irbid Governorate (20.6%)
-96,768 in Zarqa Governorate (14.6%)
-18,303 in Balqa Governorate (2.8%)
-13,026 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
-9,365 in Jarash Governorate (1.4%)
-8,489 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
-8,396 in Maan Governorate (1.3%)
-6,530 in Ajlun Governorate (1.0%)
-3,702 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
-1,682 in Tafilah Governorate (0.3%)
During this month, Jordan started vaccinating refugees while being one of the first countries to do so.[2]
Royal Scientific Society (RSS) and UN-Habitat initiated a joint research project called “COVID-19 in the Wastewater Cycle: Survival, Risk and Surveillance in Jordan”.[3]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 241,682 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of January, are distributed as follows:
-122,666 in Erbil (50.8%)
-84,188 in Dahuk (34.8%)
-31,212 in Sulaymaniyah (13.0%)
-1,192 in Anbar (0.5%)
-2,323 in other areas (0.8%)[4]
The Iraqi government announced that 100 of its citizens who had fled to Turkey because of ISIS, have been able to return to their areas following the elimination of the Daesh terror group's presence.[5]
The Kurdish community in Iraq’s autonomous Kurdish region claimed that the numbers of suicides are increasing, particularly in refugee camps full of Kurdish Yazidis.[6]
Lebanon
Since the beginning of the year, the number of registered refugees in Lebanon is 865,531.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
-336,266 in Bekaa (38.9%)
-233,042 in North Lebanon (26.9%)
-202,025 in Beirut (23.3%)
-94,198 in South Lebanon (10.9%)[7]
As part of its Arsal and Al Shamal relief campaign to ease the suffering of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Qatar Charity provided a project to conduct surgical operations for Syrian children in Lebanon.[8]
The Human Rights Watch spoke about the dire conditions Syrian refugees are suffering in the Lebanese town of Arsal, along the border with Syria, as their homes had been dismantled. [9]
Syria
According to ECHO, (European Commission's Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations) more than 24,354 Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) in 99 sites were affected by the floods of 24 January. It has resulted in one death and three injuries with some 4,575 tents either destroyed or damaged.[10]
Islamic Relief and Qatar Red Crescent Society (QRCS) launched an emergency response campaign as a result of the recent flooding at the camps of internally displaced persons in northern Syria.[11]
Qatar Fund for Development (QFFD) and Qatar Charity (QC) implemented several health initiatives in northern Syria to alleviate the suffering of the displaced by providing them with the necessary health care.[12]
The SRTF (Syria Recovery Trust Fund) announced new deliveries to two of its agriculture projects in Northern Aleppo on the 24th of January.[13]
Cyprus
The United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) called for the Pournara migrant reception center to be decongested after a 600-person brawl at the center. [14]
The interior ministry quietly issued a decree disallowing any more Syrian refugees from settling in the coastal village of Chlorakas in Paphos, as numbers were causing a huge shift in demographics and creating ‘ghettos’, according to the local community leader.[15]
Communication and Public Relations Department
[1] OCHA, January 16, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/sites/reliefweb.int/files/resources/nov_upload.pdf
[2] UNHCR, Jan 14, 2021, https://www.unhcr.org/news/press/2021/1/5ffffe614/refugees-receive-covid-19-vaccinations-jordan.html
[3] OCHA, Jan 22, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/un-habitat-and-royal-scientific-society-rss-implement-covid-19-response-project-jordan
[4] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[5] Middle East Monitor, Jan. 4, 2021, https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20210104-iraq-refugees-in-turkey-return-home-after-daesh-cleared-from-areas/
[6] Info Migrants, Jan. 9, 2021, https://www.infomigrants.net/en/post/29739/kurdish-community-in-iraq-says-suicides-on-the-rise
[7] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[8] OCHA, Jan 14, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/qatar-charity-provides-medical-surgeries-winter-aid-syrian-refugees-lebanon
[9] Human Rights Watch, Jan 19, 2021, https://www.hrw.org/news/2021/01/19/lebanon-dire-conditions-syrian-refugees-border-town#
[10] OCHA, Jan 26, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/syria-floods-update-care-islamic-relief-noaa-cpc-echo-daily-flash-26
[11] OCHA, Jan 26, 2021https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/qrcs-launches-relief-campaign-flooding-victims-syria-enar
[12] OCHA, Jan 26, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/qffd-qatar-charity-launch-new-medical-projects-northern-syriaJ
[13]OCHA, Jan 26, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-delivers-irrigation-systems-two-its-agriculture-projects-aleppo
[14] Cyprus Mail, Jan 13, 2021, https://cyprus-mail.com/2021/01/13/eu-asylum-support-office-sending-more-personnel-to-cyprus/
[15] Cyprus Mail, January 15, 2021, https://cyprus-mail.com/2021/01/15/decree-bans-new-syrian-refugees-from-settling-in-chlorakas/