Report: 1 to 15 February 2021

With the vaccines arriving to the region, the question remains: Will everyone get it. https://www.wbur.org/

With the vaccination drive beginning in many ME countries, the economy might finally start to untangle itself. Yet, discrepancies were observed in some countries as socioeconomic standards of the population or government inability to provide the vaccine, might stop them from getting vaccinated.

The socio-economic situation

Egypt

Despite the country’s success in ramping up its economy and the recent declaration of the Washington-based Institute of International Finance (IIF) that Egypt's economy succeeded in weathering the coronavirus pandemic, the government unveiled plans that would allow only four percent of the North African country's 100 million people to receive the free vaccine. This means that millions of people who are experiencing dire socioeconomic conditions will not be able to afford paying for one. To make things worse, an Egyptian official made the headlines by declaring March as the beginning of a third wave of the pandemic.

Nevertheless, the Ministry of Health announced that the recovery rates from Coronavirus pandemic at isolation hospitals hit 78 percent, indicating great success in dealing with the pandemic. However, a struggling society can only inflict losses on its purchasing power. This means in the long run, Egypt’s GDP might not increase at the previously forecasted rates.

Jordan

As Jordan continues to implement its vaccination plan, which also entails its refugee community, the country moved forward in reinforcing its economy. A Jordanian delegation visited Pakistan’s Islamabad Chamber of Commerce & Industry (ICCI) to increase economic ties with the country. Speaking at the occasion, Sardar Yasir Ilyas Khan, President, Islamabad Chamber of Commerce & Industry emphasized Pakistan and Jordan should sign a free trade agreement to remove trade barriers and boost trade volume. Also he claimed that it was the right time for Jordanian entrepreneurs to explore Pakistan for business and investment.

Another positive indicator that the country is heading in the right direction, hundreds of thousands of students in Jordan went back to schools after almost a year of closure due to the coronavirus pandemic. This means that the educational sector started once again to contribute to the economic growth of the country, by delivering the much needed expertise to man the nation’s industries.

Iraq

The government recently approved the usage of British and Chinese vaccines. However, there are no indications that the government is succeeding in implemented its vaccination plan as the country’s economy continues to falter. Moreover, various reports continue to haunt Iraqi media of rising poverty and domestic abuse levels. As such, the level of instability is rising as authorities fear the resurgence of ISIS, which currently has 75,000 supporters. The number is set to grow if the country doesn’t find a solution to dropping oil prices and one-sided economy.

*Caretaker Finance Minister Ghazi Wazni and Jihane Rached on behalf of the World Bank sign an agreement in Beirut, Jan. 29, 2021. (The Daily Star/Dalati Nohra, HO).*

Lebanon

It is no secret that the country’s economy is in tatters. Fueled by dollar shortage, political gridlocks, and rampant corruption, the nation is heading to a failed state scenario. The country continues to have no government in place while suffering from a massive outbreak of covid-19 which has recorded the highest figures among Middle East countries. Currently, Lebanese are following news regarding Swiss authorities’ request that Lebanon’s judiciary cooperate with a money-laundering investigation into the country’s central bank. The probe centers on $400m in transfers allegedly tied to the bank’s governor of 27 years, Riad Salameh, his brother Raja, and Salameh’s advisor Marianne Al-Hoayek. As such, the interference of foreign nations in Lebanon’s case, gave hope to millions of Lebanese hoping for change in the country.

Moreover, during the end of the month the World Bank signed an agreement with Lebanon, over a 246 million USD loan as part of the Emergency Crisis and COVID-19 Response Social Safety Net Project. According to the press release, Lebanon will be receiving cash assistance for one year through the ESSN project, to support 147,000 extremely poor Lebanese families. The development comes along interpretations that the new US administration is keen on helping Lebanon by adopting a new approach. Lastly, the vaccine finally arrived to Lebanon, raising moral in the country. As such, one may induce that this year, things might change for this ME country.

The Israeli government is not ensuing that COVID-19 vaccines are equally and fairly provided to Palestinians living under its occupation in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip, said Amnesty International.

Palestine

Despite promises that the Israeli authorities will transfer vaccines to the Palestinian Authorities, nothing happened. Even the World Heath Organization’s request to give vaccines to Palestine medics was declined. The development came along Palestinian health officials’ warning that a new COVID-19 strain is spreading in the country.

"The new strain of the coronavirus is considered more rapid to spread among the population. Also, it may infect all ages of the people," Mai al-Kaila, Palestinian health minister noted.

With the siege imposed by the Israeli authorities and the infectious disease, Palestinians are once again put in deplorable socioeconomic conditions. Hopefully, with the change in presidency in the US, new policies that would benefit Palestinians will be set in place.

Syria

As the state-controlled economy continues to plummet and the UN declaring a record of 12.4 million people food insecure, Syria is facing the direst economic conditions in its history. The Syrian pound devaluated to its weakest levels against the US dollar, ranging between SYP 3,270 to SYP 3,300 per dollar in the black market. Syria’s oil and gas sector has suffered USD 91.5 billion in losses since the start of the conflict in 2011, according to the Ministry of Petroleum and Mineral Resources. To top it, oil revenues declined by nearly a fifth in 2020 when sanctions are still slapped on the country’s back.

The new Biden administration indicated a new approach in dealing with the Middle East and the war in Syria. However, with new resonating about a possible come-back of ISIS in the region, might force it to put the US-Syrian relationship on the back burner, as the superpower’s attention might be focused elsewhere.

Cyprus

In celebration of beginning its vaccination drive, the 5th Cyprus International Investors Summit, hosted by Invest Cyprus, was held as Cyprus was placed best in Europe, and fifth among almost 100 countries in the Covid-19 Performance Index, compiled by think tank Lowy Institute. On the occasion, the minister of finance, Constantinos Petrides stated that expected Cyprus's economy to rebound by 2021, sustained by the positive fiscal performance of the island over the past few years. Moreover, he added that “Cyprus aims to relentlessly diversify its economy and upgrade its services and products”.

As such, this year seems full of potential for the small island. Cyprus' economy is expected to rebound by 4.5% of gross domestic product this year following a pandemic-induced contraction of around 5.5% in 2020.

Communication and Public Relations Department

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