An Uncertain Economy
Report: 16 to 31 October 2021
This report is also available in Arabic.
Following the World Bank’s statements concerning the Middle East, the International Monetary Fund voiced a similar concern. Photo source: 1tv.ge.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) stated that Middle East region is on track to economic recovery. Yet similarly to the World Bank, it claimed that rising social unrest and unemployment are slowing down progress. The IMF’s statement comes during a time countries are adopting a more cooperative approach with one another and are receiving inbound investments. Hopefully, governments will heed such remarks for the welfare of the average citizen.
1- The socio-economic situation
Egypt
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-328,209 corona confirmed cases
-276,801 recovered
-18,483 deaths
Egypt is on its way to becoming an industrial power house. https://www.arabnews.com/
The American credit rating agency Fitch Ratings, recently gave Egypt B+' with a stable outlook. Moreover, it commended Egypt’s performance and stated that the country had outperformed all other countries covered by the agency. What made Egypt resilient is stable domestic demand, gas production and a public-sector investment program, to make up for the dwindling tourism and export-oriented sectors. The ratings however, could have been better as the agency noted. This is due to the fact that the country is still held down by large fiscal deficits, and high general government debts. Nevertheless, Egypt’s tourism industry is still rebounding, the corona pandemic is waning, and the GDP is projected to increase by 5.5% for 2022.
Furthermore, to all this, the country continues to attract inbound investments. The European Bank of Reconstruction and Development’s (EBRD) for instance is aiming to develop projects with the country’s business community in addition to the €8 billion already invested in 136 projects in the country. As such, economists can expect Egypt's non-oil exports to significantly increase over the coming years. In short, Egypt is proving once again that it is a rising industrial power.
Jordan
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-858,342 corona confirmed cases
-827,523 recovered
-11,000 deaths
Jordan's prime minister reshuffled his cabinet for the fourth time since taking office a year ago, creating a new investment ministry to increase international projects within Jordan.
Following the improvement of the Kingdom’s relationship with Syria, the reopening of borders, and the energy meeting between Jordan, Syria, and Lebanon, things have finally started to look promising. Recently, experts have been claiming that Jordan's economy is witnessing growth due to the reopening of all economic sectors and improvement in the country's macroeconomic indicators since the beginning of 2021. For instance, the GDP grew by 3.2 percent in the first nine months of 2021 due to new construction projects, the expansion of extractive industries, and the expansion of transportation, storage, communications, manufacturing, whole sale, retail and trade sectors. According to the World Economic Outlook report by the International Monetary Fund, Jordan's economy is expected to grow by 2 percent and 2.7 percent in 2021 and 2022 respectively. This is not a bad indicator for a country who was witnessing turmoil. With the geopolitical shifts in the region, Jordan is now adapting well.
Iraq
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-2,052,123 corona confirmed cases
-1,996,126 recovered
-23,083 deaths
UAE signs deal with Iraq to protect and promote investments, Photo: Ministry of Finance.
The month of October have been characterized by “great developments” between Iraq and the UAE as the two seek closer ties. For instance, UAE signed an agreement with Iraq to promote and protect mutual investments and boost foreign investment in both countries by providing a suitable investment environment. From the UAE’s perspective, this agreement alone should enhance its competitiveness and would cement itself better in the Iraqi market. From Iraq’s end, this will have great economic impact especially global companies and organizations are racing to secure their own shares within the Iraqi market. This explains why several other entities such as Saudi Arabia and the energy giant Total have been trying to invest in projects that can address Iraq’s energy problems.
Lebanon
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-639,995 corona confirmed cases
-614,503 recovered
-8,480 deaths
Little suggests the leadership intends to attempt reform or explore accountability for these catastrophic failures, https://www.washingtonpost.com/.
From attempting to interfere in the Judicial system to the breakout of a mini-civil war, October was an interesting month in Lebanon. Of course, all that coincided with hiking fuel prices, which huge segments of the Lebanese population can’t afford anymore. Concequently, a menacing inflation is wrecking havoc within the country as socioeconomic woes worsten; prices are skyrocketing and so are poverty levels. Social disturbances, such as theft, murder, and domestic violence are also increasing at an alarming rate. Even some Syrian refugees who had fled the war, are returning to their lands of origin to escape the dwindeling standards of living.
For now and as always, a solution or political settlement from within the country seems highly unlikely for the same reasons we have been reading about over the past year: too much internal divisions, over-inlfated egoes, and highly dispursed corruption. It is quite unfortunate that the only vivid solution, for the time being, is help or rescue from Lebanon’s international partners.
Palestine
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-422,641 corona confirmed cases
-411,884 recovered
-4,395 deaths
Will the Europe pull Palestine out of its financial woes? (AP Photo/Virginia Mayo, File).
With the lack of aid from Europe, Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Mohammad Shtayyeh headed to Brussels to discuss lack of European budget support and the Palestinian Authority ongoing fiscal troubles. His visit came during a time when the Palestinian economy is crumbling and the fiscal situation is at a breaking point. Moreover, donor countries have been extremely exhausted by COVID-19 and its economic implications. European countries however, seem very skeptical of the level of corruption existing in the Palestinian Authority and would require changes in how things are run. This was clearly elaborated during a meeting between President Mahmoud Abbas and Swedish Foreign Minister who made it clear that it is a major issue. Knowing that ME nations are not too keen on tackling this issue, attaining further aid might be a bit problematic.
Syria
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-42,621 corona confirmed cases
-26,108 recovered
-2,542 deaths
Syria and the United Arab Emirates held talks on the sidelines of the Dubai Expo 2020 to restore economic relations after severing ties following the outbreak of the Syrian civil war.
Although Syria is still suffering from high levels of poverty and various economic hurdles, decision makers in Syria are rallying their efforts to rejuvenate past relationships with neighboring countries. By a twist of fate, nations which were sworn adversaries of the Syrian Government, are now in negotiations with the latter over huge projects to be executed on Syria. Similarly, the planned electricity deal involving Jordan and Lebanon is very close to fruition as Syria has the right to a certain share of the electricity supply. As such, Syria will be able to meet part of its energy needs and mitigate the power outages happening in the country. Furthermore, the ME country is opening up to countries a bit outside its geopolitical map. For instance, it has signed a memorandum of understanding to boost bilateral trade and expand economic ties.
All that is good news when compared to what had happened over the past years. Yet, Syria has to still contend with several threats affecting its future. From one end, two major powers, Turkey and Israel, continuously intervene militarily or one way or another. From another end, COVID-19 and strange fungus infections are still spreading in non-government areas. Although these are difficult challenges to bear, Syria has seen worse days to say the least. Hopefully, the situation in the region will get better and all what had happened would be a thing of the past.
Cyprus
Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:
-122,295 corona confirmed cases
-90,755 recovered
-572 deaths
Finance Minister Constantinos Petrides said the Cyprus economy would become more robust by going through the green and digital transition. October 21, 2021, Cyprus Mail.
The Canada-based rating agency DBRS Morningstar rated Cyprus’s Issuer Ratings at BBB (low) and changed the trend to “positive” from “stable.” Such a declaration demonstrates the high expectations the world is anticipating. There is no doubt Cyprus is heading in the right trajectory in terms of green energy and self-sustainability and is attracting a lot of attention from the international community. After all, in a world ridden with energy crises such a solution or model of economy is very well needed especially in high density population countries, where alternative means of energy production are needed. For now, the government seems determined to adopt green and digital transition policies and the world awaits what all these changes will yield. Maybe Cyprus will prove to be a remarkable case study or experiment that can motivate and push other countries in that direction.
2- The refugee situation
Egypt
During a press conference on the sidelines of the Visegrad Group (V4) summit, which comprises Hungary, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, and Poland, President Abdel Fattah Al-Sisi emphasized that Egypt will continue to take care of its refugees and continue to improve their situation and living conditions. [1]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 670,364 registered Syrian refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of October.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for October, are distributed as follows:
-198,217 in Amman Governorate (29.6 %)
-167,459 in Mafraq Governorate (25%)
-136,550 in Irbid Governorate (20.4%)
-98,207 in Zarqa Governorate (14.7%)
-17,952 in Balqa Governorate (2.7%)
-13,259 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
-9,353 in Jarash Governorate (1.4%)
-8,535 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
-8,346 in Maan Governorate (1.2%)
-6,444 in Ajlun Governorate (1.0%)
-3,775 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
-1,645 in Tafilah Governorate (0.3%)
The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) welcomed a timely and generous top-up contribution of €17 million (US$20 million) from the Federal Republic of Germany that will help avert planned cuts in food assistance for 110,000 refugees in October.[2]
UNICEF and Dar Abu Abdallah (DAA) launched the Women’s Capacity Building and Productive Center in Mafraq, as part of their ongoing partnership to create economic opportunities for youth and women during COVID-19 pandemic, and promote refugee – host community social cohesion.[3]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 244,760 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of October, are distributed as follows:
-126,665 in Erbil (50.7%)
-84, 895 in Dahuk (34.0%)
-32,362 in Sulaymaniyah (13.0%)
-1,444 in Anbar (0.6%)
-3,640 in other areas (1.8%)[4]
The Qatar Red Crescent Society (QRCS) in Iraq launched a project it started sponsoring surgeries for Iraqi IDPs and Syrian refugees in Erbil.
Qatar Charity (QC) issued an appealing asking the international community to sponsor winterization projects in Iraq.[5]
Lebanon
[Please note that the displacement section has not been updated 31 May 2021]
Since the beginning of the year, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 851,717.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
-334,668 in Bekaa (39.1%)
-230,601 in North Lebanon (27%)
-197,410 in Beirut (23.1%)
-92,493 in South Lebanon (10.8%)[6]
The UN-Habitat’s Regional Office for Arab States together with the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for West Asia (UN ESCWA) and UNICEF launched a regional project aimed at increasing the capacity of displaced persons and host communities in Lebanon to deal with water scarcity.
The United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) concluded an agreement with Kuwait Fund for Arab Economic Development in which the latter will provide US$ 20 million to support the Agency’s core services in 2021 and 2022.[7]
Syria
The COVID-19 infections are surging in Syria, especially in the northwest where cases began increasing in early August, reaching around 1,000 cases per day by the end of the month.
UNICEF supported the import of 138,240 doses of AstraZeneca donated by Sweden through the COVAX mechanism and received by the Ministry of Health and launched a mass media and social media campaign with the Ministry of Health to create demand for the COVID-19 vaccine.
Over 450,000 people have been affected by the disruption of Alouk water station, exacerbated by drought conditions and reduced water flows in the Euphrates River. The UN continues to advocate for regular and unimpeded access to Alouk water station and the electricity network that supports it.[8]
In September, the UN continued its cross-border operations from Turkey through the Bab al-Hawa border crossing under the Security Council resolution 2585 (2021), delivering 433 trucks of humanitarian assistance to north-west Syria. NGO assistance continued at high levels
In September, at least nine civilians (including three women and four children) were killed and 28 civilians (seven women and 10 children) were injured in airstrikes or shelling (OHCHR). 11 improvised explosive device (IED) and unexploded ordnance (UXO) incidents killed at least four civilians and injured at least 28 civilians (including two women and seven children).[9]
Cyprus
Due to the deplorable socioeconomic conditions in Lebanon, Cyprus is reporting several migrants in ‘thousands’ coming from Lebanon.[10]
The Interior Minister Nicos Nouris released a statement urging the EU to finance the construction of fences and barbwire along the border to stem the inflow of refugees. [11]
Communication and Public Relations Department
[1] Daily News, October 12, 2021, https://dailynewsegypt.com/2021/10/12/egypt-has-moral-obligation-to-integrate-refugees-into-society-president-al-sisi/
[2] OCHA, Oct 2, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/german-funding-helps-wfp-avert-food-assistance-cuts-refugees-jordan
[3] OCHA, UNICEF, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/unicef-and-dar-abu-abdallah-launch-women-center-counter-economic-impacts-covid19
[4] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[5] Gulf Times, October 24, 2021, https://www.gulf-times.com/story/702991/QC-appeals-for-urgent-winter-aid-for-displaced-Syr
[6] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[7] OCHA, Oct 14, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/kuwait-fund-arab-economic-development-supports-unrwa-us-215-million-contribution
[8] OCHA, Oct 19, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/unicef-whole-syria-humanitarian-situation-report-august-2021
[9] OCHA, Oct 13, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/syrian-arab-republic-developments-north-west-syria-and-ras-al-ain-tell-0
[10] The National News, Oct. 18, 2021, https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/uk-news/2021/10/18/cyprus-offers-safe-haven-for-second-wave-of-lebanese-fleeing-crisis/
[11] K News, October 25, 2021, https://knews.kathimerini.com.cy/en/news/cyprus-airs-migration-grievances-at-divided-europe