A Relative Peace: Is It Lasting?

Report: 15 to 30 September 2021

This report is also available in Arabic.

Our we on the path towards stability? Or is this temporary? Photo credit: www.abs-group.com

ME countries continued to succeed in weathering the different economic challenges that had impeded progress. With tensions decreasing and the situation improving, the ME can focus on development projects that can tackle future challenges.

1- The socio-economic situation

Egypt

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-284,024 corona confirmed cases

-227,612 recovered

-16,487 deaths

Egyptian Prime Minister H.E. Mostafa Madbouy and Libyan Prime Minister H.E. Abdulhamid M. A. Al Dabiba, photo credit: nergycapitalpower.com.

In its growing effort to maximize its cooperation with its neighvoring countries, Egypt signed 14 Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs) and six executive agreements with Libya. The MoUs signed include the fields of agriculture, industry, hydrocarbons, communications, civil aviation, housing, construction and youth and sports. The agreements signed included one between the Central Agency for Organization and Administration in Egypt and Civil Service in Libya, as well as the Egyptian Industrial Development Authority and Libyan Ministry of Industry and Minerals. As such, Egypt and Libya are to be connected on several governmental levels as discussed during the 11th session of the Egyptian-Libyan Joint Higher Committee in Cairo on 16 September.

On the domestic front, Egypt is now turning an eye towards its private sector. When having a sizable informal economy, where merchants, traders, workers etc.. are exempt from taxation, the extra revenue from such a source can prove very benefecial. Of course, Egypt’s test, in such a situation is coming up with the right policies and incentives that can integrate the informal economy with the rest of the private sector without damaging the livelihood of the citizens. Neverthless, its move to privatize the state enterprises, may hint towards a less intrusive or controling approach with dealing with sectors outside government control.

Jordan

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-764,983 corona confirmed cases

-746,960 recovered

-9,963 deaths

A picture of Amman. Photo credit: 123ft.com

Like Egypt, though at a smaller scale, Jordan is also taking into account other countries to boost cooperation between them. For instance, the Jordanian government is now seeking to increase its trade volume with Poland, which stands at 100 million dollars. Currently, there are bilateral and political consultations to bring business communities from both countries to increase the trade volume.

As for its relationship with its neighboring countries, Jordan is currently boosting its ties with Iraq, especially in the fields of counter-terrorism and extremism, border security, as well as combating smuggling and human trafficking. Enhancing information exchange between the two countries, is also a top priority that would bring innovation to the economy.

Iraq

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-1,552,648 corona confirmed cases

-1,411,029 recovered

-18,287 deaths

The Women’s Economic Empowerment Plan for 2021-2022 outlines the government’s priorities in line with its reform program.

During this month, good tidings dawned on Iraq as the World Bank ramped up its assistance. As such, a new plan that would create new opportunities for women and therefore improve the economy, will be implemented by the organization. The World Bank Group provided technical support and advice to the government to remove any obstacles that had impeded the inclusion of women within the economy. It will work upon capacity building for women in the digital and agriculture sectors, while also providing financial resources. Also, the plan included implementing legislative reforms to reduce gender gaps and strengthening knowledge and capacity around access to childcare.

The positive news does not end here however. Iraq rose five places to 137th position out of 167 countries, up from 142nd place in 2010 when it was one of the least prosperous countries. Moreover, the World Bank indicated that Iraq's economy will grow 1.9 per cent this year, and expand 6.3 per cent over the next two years, on the back of rebounding oil prices and rising Opec+ production quotas.

Lebanon

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-555,302 corona confirmed cases

-536,111 recovered

-7,892 deaths

People queue to refill domestic gas cylinders at a petrol station in the Ouzai area of the capital Beirut [Nabil Mounzer/EPA-EFE].

When a new government was formed, Lebanese breathed a sigh of relief after 13 months of country-wide paralysis. Their hopes were pinned on the decrease of the dollar exchange rate in the parallel market and resumption of fuel availability. While prices did drop down, the dollar exchange rate resumed fluctuating upwards and citizens continued to wait in long lines at gas stations. In other words, the situation did improve but not at the expected level. Bloomberg reports that the inflation rate in Lebanon has risen to its highest level of all time, surpassing Zimbabwe and Venezuela. Meanwhile, people with precious skills, such as nurses and doctors, continue to flee the country, thus robbing it of people and threatening vital sectors.

So far temporary fixes have been adapted to meet the increasing challenges, such as importing fuel from other countries. Yet, the country is deeply devastated by the cross-border, as well as the monopolization of combustibles by corrupt traders, the lack of accountability, corruption and broken justice system. Even till today, the investigation in the Beirut Blast have been met with ‘big brother’ tactics as not one person has been brought to justice. In short, lives were wasted all for nothing.

Palestine

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-316,088 corona confirmed cases

-311,526 recovered

-3,599 deaths

Palestinians protest in eastern Khan Younis town in the southern Gaza Strip in August [EPA].

Following the lift of the Israeli blockade over Gaza, the international community lauded the move as it paves the way for better relations. Nevertheless, people on the ground were not so hopeful. For instance, Gaza’s fishing zone, operated by Israel was expanded to 15 nautical miles (28km). This instability alone affects the livelihoods of about 4,000 fishermen, their families, and thousands more people involved in the industry. Moreover, the drinkable water situation in the city is still gloomy as the average daily per capita consumption is only 88 liters, which is below the recommended 100 daily consumption recommended by the World Health Organization. What’s worse is that water prices have increased drastically. The private market operates at 30 shekels ($9) per cubic meter of water. On the municipal network, it costs only 1-2 shekels per cubic meter. As such, how can there be really peace in Palestine when citizens struggle to attain their most basic needs?

Syria

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-25,877 corona confirmed cases

-21,948 recovered

-1,906 deaths

Syrian Foreign Minister Faisal Miqdad (right) and other cabinet members meet an official Lebanese delegation including Minister for Foreign Affairs Zeina Akar in Damascus. AFP.

Following its approval to allow the passage of fuel to Lebanon, through a US backed intitiative, Syria finds itself in a better spot. From one end, its relationship improved with Lebanon and the US administration, and secondly, it will benefit from the deal by securing a percentage of the fuel reserves. Neverthless, Syria’s economy remains to be in tatters as the Syrian pound has been losing again some ground in the local foreign exchange market, raising prices of food and all commodities and items to reach unprecedented levels. Moreover, some of the business communities faced a government restriction, highlighting a combination of challenges the country endures and consequent resentment towards the strong-arm policies of the government. Some foreign companies such as MTN have been also reported to leave the country.

Despite all this, Syria Recovery Trust Fund (SRTF) approved its second revolving community credit fund to support economic recovery and stabilization in northwest Syria, in collaboration with the Near East Foundation, an American humanitarian NGO that focuses on peacebuilding, sustainable agriculture, and microenterprise development. Another positive development is the increase of fuel reserves being injected into the Syrian economy. Also, the Syrian government is currently expanding its gas supplies to increase the production of power plants in an attempt to reduce electricity rationing hours, which have significantly increased over the past few years. All of this have prompted many businesses to resume working.

Cyprus

Corona cases, deaths and recovered are distributed as follows:

-97,718 corona confirmed cases

-77,047 recovered

-401 deaths

The latest official data released from the Cyprus Securities and Exchange Commission (CySEC) showcases a continuously growing and dynamic Investments Funds sector on the island.

According to Finance Minister Constantinos Petrides, the 2022 budget will record the island’s transition from Covid-19 support measures to economic recovery. Such a recovery will mean a transition from support to growth and that’s why development expenditure has increased to 10% or 12%. Petrides also noted that under the existing circumstances, growth will exceed 5.5% in 2021 followed by growth close to 4% in 2022, adding that Cyprus is one of the few countries in the European Union to regain the ground lost in 2020. To bolster his argument, Fitch forecasted real GDP growth of 4.8% in 2021, partly due to strong base effects, and a gradual normalization of growth rates in 2022 and 2023 of 3.7% and 2.9%, respectively. This allowed the agency to give Cyprus a BBB- rating with a stable outlook.

2- The refugee situation

Egypt                                                            

• Following the Government’s plan to prioritize the elderly and individuals with chronic health conditions, 500 refugees and asylum-seekers have received COVID vaccines across Egypt.[1]

Jordan

The UNHCR states that there are currently 670,637 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of September.

The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for September, are distributed as follows:

-198,148 in Amman Governorate (29.6 %)

-167,191 in Mafraq Governorate (25%)

-136,820 in Irbid Governorate (20.4%)

-98,254 in Zarqa Governorate (14.7%)

-18,168 in Balqa Governorate (2.7%)

-13,240 in Madaba Governorate (2%)

-9,357 in Jarash Governorate (1.4%)

-8,584 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)

-8,353 in Maan Governorate (1.2%)

-6,459 in Ajlun Governorate (1.0%)

-3,805 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)

-1,643 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)

• The Qatar Fund for Development managed to distribute critical health care for Syrian refugees in the Zaatari camp, which is under dire need of assistance.[2]

• His Majesty King Abdullah, reiterated Jordan’s continued commitment to providing health, education, and humanitarian services to Syrian refugees despite the sharp decline in the international contribution to Jordan’s response plan to the Syrian refugee crisis.[3]

Iraq

The UNHCR states that there are currently 248,721 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.

The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the end of September, are distributed as follows:

-126,205 in Erbil (50.7%)

-84,516 in Dahuk (34.0%)

-32,445 in Sulaymaniyah (13.1%)

-2,631 in Anbar (1.1%)

-2,924 in other areas (1.2%)[4]

• A new Social Protection Program was launched by the Ministry of Planning, the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs and the Ministry of Trade of Iraq, along with the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), the United Nations World Food Program (WFP), and the International Labour Organization (ILO). This program aims at reforming the social protection system and the effectiveness of its response to ongoing socio-economic shocks in Iraq.[5]

Lebanon

[Please note that this statistics section is yet not updated by UNHCR]

Since March, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 865,531.

Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:

-334,668 in Bekaa (39.1%)

-230,601 in North Lebanon (27%)

-197,410 in Beirut (23.1%)

-92,493 in South Lebanon (10.8%)[6]

• A WHO Representative remarked that the current complex crisis has heavily impacted the health system in Lebanon, decreasing availability, affordability, accessibility and quality of health care in general, and threatening the sustainability and resilience of the health system which caters to citizens and refugees. [7]

  The severe electricity and fuel shortages which have been affecting Lebanon over the past months, are impeding the provision of essential services, including health care and water, and has resulted in tremendous additional hardship across all populations, as reported by the UNHCR.[8]

Syria

• In June 2021, the humanitarian community tracked some 50,000 IDP, Internally displaced persons, [MSG1] movements across Syria, around 51% per cent more than the numbers tracked in May.

• In June 2021, the humanitarian community recorded some 13,000 spontaneous IDP return movements across Syria, which was 5 per cent less than the return movements that were tracked in May.

• Progress towards resolving Syria’s decade-long conflict has reached an impasse, the chief United Nations mediator told the Security Council on Tuesday, as an uptick in fighting throughout the country led to some of the largest civilian displacements in a year.[9]

• The future for Syria’s people is “increasingly bleak”, UN-appointed rights experts said on Tuesday 14 September, highlighting escalating conflict in several areas of the war-ravaged country, a return to siege tactics and popular demonstrations linked to the plummeting economy.

• The United Nations Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, Martin Griffiths, started from 28 August, a seven-day visit to Syria, Lebanon and Turkey.

 “Ten years into the conflict in Syria, civilians continue to endure grave hardship – whether Syrians inside their country, those seeking refuge in the region, or the citizens of neighboring countries hosting refugees,” said Mr. Griffiths.

Cyprus

• Minister of Interior, Nicos Nouris waved-off demands made a day earlier for a Syrian asylum seeker to be reunited with her family, saying it might open the floodgates to thousands of similar requests. A social media upheaval then stormed Cyprus due to the way refugees are being treated on the island. [10]

Communication and Public Relations Department

---

[1] OCHA, Sep 21, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/egypt/vaccines-roll-out-egypt-refugees-are-not-left-behind-enar

[2] OCHA, Sept 20, 2021,https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/qatar-fund-development-supports-health-sector-syrian-refugees-zaatari-camp-sisterly

[3] Jordan Times, Sept 15, 2021,  https://www.jordantimes.com/news/local/king-calls-development-based-approach-address-refugee-crisis

[4] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5

[5] OCHA, Sept 21, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/government-iraq-unicef-wfp-and-ilo-partner-reform-social-protection-support-european

[6] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71

[7] OCHA, Sept 23, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/remarks-who-representative-lebanon-who-s-press-briefing-lebanon-and-afghanistan

[8] OCHA, Sept 23, 2021, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/statement-dr-najat-rochdi-deputy-special-coordinator-lebanon-resident-and

[9] UN, https://news.un.org/en/story/2021/08/1098362

[10] In Cyprus , https://in-cyprus.philenews.com/governments-treatment-of-syrian-pregnant-refugee-woman-described-as-inhuman/