All Eyes on Rafah
Middle East Socioeconomic Overview Report: May 2024
The AI genetrated picture that took social media by a storm. Image credit: Twitter/@IrnaEnglish
1. Introduction
International outrage has only ramped up over the malicious actions being perpetrated in Gaza. Even the traditional allies of the occupant have found it hard to defend the killing of displaced people, who consist of women and children, in designated safe camps. Moreover, the ICJ has issued arrest warrants targeting the occupant’s officials blaming them for war crimes. However, with the backing of the United States, bringing these individuals to justice will remain an impossibility. For the time being, millions of people around the world continue to increase pressure on the occupation entity using any way possible. Supported by the free media, they are succeeding in rallying others against this menace.
2. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION
Egypt
Egypt’s economy, according to experts, should bounce up despite the turmoil in the region. This will be done through investments. Photo credit: alarabiya.net
According to a new report by the United Nations Development Prorgam, the economic cost of the war in Gaza on the Egyptian economy at between $5.6 billion and $19.8 billion during the current fiscal years 2023-2024 and 2024-2025. This means a loss ranging between 1.6 and 5.2 percent of the average Annual GDP depending on the extent of conflict aggravation. The United Nations Development Program claimed that the Suez Canal and the tourism sector are likely to receive the biggest blow, as their revenues are expected to shrink by a range of $3.7 billion to $13.7 billion during the current and next fiscal years. The report warned that the decline in the inflow of foreign currencies, accompanied by a widening of the current account deficit, will put pressure on the country’s foreign exchange reserves and exacerbate inflationary pressures. At the same time, the program addressed concerns about the impact of the war on unemployment rates and poverty levels, as it expects an increase in the unemployment rate between 0.5 and 1.3 percent during the current fiscal year, and a decrease of 1.3 to 2.5 percent in the real income of Egyptian families. The United Nations Development Program recommended policies that would mitigate the effects of the war on the Egyptian economy, including the facilitation of access to social protection programs, supporting value chains in the tourism sector and the transition to sustainable tourism, and enhancing the ability of the sectors most affected by the crisis to withstand, while promoting the growth of some sectors, which have proven their ability to grow despite the war, such as textiles and agriculture.
In light of the effects of the Gaza war, Egypt expedited its negotiations with the IMF, to receive 1.2 billion dollars. As such, the Egyptian Minister of the Environment, Yasmine Fouad Wazira, held an expanded meeting with the International Monetary Fund’s resilience and sustainability mission, at the Ministry of Environment’s headquarters in the Administrative Capital, to begin discussions for Egypt to obtain $1.2 billion for the environment within the special support packages of the International Monetary Fund and to discuss mechanisms for future cooperation in the field of supporting environmental and climate policies. Similarly, the Egyptian Minister of International Cooperation and Governor of Egypt at the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, Dr. Rania Al-Mashat, confirmed that the European Union will provide investment guarantees worth 1.8 billion euros to the private sector in Egypt, during the investment conference scheduled to be held next June with the European Union.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 516,023
Deaths: 24,613
Recovered: 442,182
Jordan
This confirmation highlights the country’s progress in fiscal and economic reforms, alongside resilient financing supported by its liquid banking sector, public pension fund, and international assistance. Shutterstock
During May, international agencies reafirmed Jordan’s stable outlook despite jeopolitical tensions in the region. For instance, credit rating agency Moody’s Ratings upgraded the Kingdom’s long-term local and foreign currency issuer ratings to Ba3 from B1, affirming the country’s efficient and competent fiscal and monetary policies. According to Minister of Finance Mohammad Al-Ississ, the upgrade is a testament to the stability and resilience of the Jordanian economy, reflecting the robustness of its fiscal policies and the success of its structural economic reforms. Moreover, Jordan’s macroeconomic stability has led to Fitch Ratings affirming its long-term foreign currency issuer default ratings at BB- with a stable outlook. Fitch further noted that Jordan’s government maintains its commitment to advancing its three pillars: economic, public administration, and political reform agenda despite the external challenges. Likewise, the IMF projected a growth of 2.6% as the current account deficit and inflation have fallen and banking system remains liquid. The minister also added that the declerations by these foreign agencies will truly benefit the Jordanian economy as they will present the country as a safe investment destination. To top it all what has been mentioned, King Abdullah is also committed to combating climate change and therefore is placing Jordan on the map as a modern country worthy of environmental projects which are huge focus of European nations. As such, despite the war which is going on in its neighboring country, the Kingdom is seemingly standing on both of its feet. The only thing that can affect Jordan, according to analysts, is if the situation in Palestine spirals out of control.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,746,997
Deaths: 14,122
Recovered: 1,731,007
Iraq
Domestic inflation dropped to 4 per cent by end of last year in Iraq, indicating lower global food prices, according to the IMF. Reuters
According to the IMF, Iraq’s economy contracted by 2.2% in 2022, only projecting a growth by 1.4% in 2024. This is due to decreasing oil prices, significant fiscal expansion, and internal imblances. To that end, the organization expects fiscal deficit to widen to 7.6% of GDP in 2024 from 1.3% in 2023. For this reason, the IMF claimed that Iraq needs to gradually correct its public financial conditions, to stabilize debt in the medium term and rebuild financial reserves. Nevertheless, the Fund welcomed the strong economic recovery, low inflation in Iraq, and improved domestic conditions that led to the implementation of the first 3-year budget. Moreover, the IMF did admit that the fiscal expansion will eventually lead to economic growth in Iraq in the long run. However, the volatile sitution in the region will definitely leave the status of oil prices in the unknown. Thus Iraq should carry on to decrease its dependency on oil exports for a more stable economy. From its end, Iraq stated that the loans provided by the IMF to Iraq since 2003 did not exceed $8 billion, and were repaid in full. The Fund's loans were aimed at supporting macroeconomic stability and implementing financial reforms, especially in the first years following 2003. One final note the IMF adressed enhancing governance and combating corruption, recommending strong anti-money laundering and countering the financing of terrorism framework, and improving public procurement and business regulations.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 2,465,545
Deaths: 25,375
Recovered: 2,439,497
Lebanon
International Monetary Fund logo is seen inside the headquarters at the end of the IMF/World Bank annual meetings in Washington, U.S., October 9, 2016. REUTERS/Yuri Gripas/File Photo
Despite positive expectations regarding willingness of some elements of the international community to finance the country, the IMF reiterated its previous claims that Lebanon's economic reforms are insufficient to help lift the country out of its economic crisis. Although, Fiscal and monetary reforms were carried out by Lebanon's finance ministry and the central bank and steps were undertaken to unify multiple exchange rates for the Lebanese pound to contain a currency slump and help reduce inflationary pressures, policy measures are not enough to allow the country to recover. According to the IMF, deposits remain frozen, and the banking sector is unable to provide credit to the economy, as the government and parliament have been unable to find a solution to the banking crisis. Another international organization that commented about the situation in Lebanon is World Bank. Based on a recent household survey covering the governorates of Akkar, Beirut, Bekaa, North Lebanon and most of Mount Lebanon, the report finds that one in three Lebanese in these areas were affected by poverty in 2022, highlighting the need to strengthen social safety nets and create job opportunities to help alleviating poverty and addressing growing inequalities. The report pointed out that there is a "disparity in the distribution of poverty in Lebanon" between the remote areas and Beirut. The poverty rate reached 70% in Akkar, where most of the population works in the agricultural and construction sectors. The Bank also pointed out that the losses of local banks amount, according to estimates by the Central Bank of Lebanon, to approximately between 65 and 70 billion dollars, that is, about four times the gross domestic product. With no intention to solve this problem, the country may lose its temporary stability, financial stability, and deteriorate even further, especially with expanding crisis at the border.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,243,838
Deaths: 10,952
Recovered: 1,087,587
Palestine
Fears of an economic crisis are mounting in Palestine. Import tax revenue collected by Israel constitutes more than 60 per cent of Ramallah’s income. AFP
Economic disparity within all Palestinian territories have only increased since the beginning of the war. With most of Gaza destroyed, most of the residents have lost their livelihood, rending their purchasing power close to zero. This is evident from the World Bank’s statement claiming that Palestine's economy has lost close to half a million jobs since the Gaza war began in October with the gap between revenue and public expenditure widening significantly. Even humanitarian aid, which they are in desperate need, is not reaching its destination. To top it all, the Zionist army is targeting camps which have been deemed as safe areas for civilians. As a result, international outcry followed suit deeming the whole thing a blatant and inexcusable war crime which had no military aim and which was only executed for malicious intent. The horrendous situation however, seemed to take all media attention from what’s going in the West Bank. To further indiscriminately punish the Palestinians, the Occupier reopened a long-standing economic battle between his country and the Palestinian Authority, announcing that it would withhold tax revenue the Occupier collects on behalf of the PA. This move was in direct retaliation to Norway, Spain and Ireland recognizing a Palestinian state. With the tax revenues collected constituting more than 60 per cent of Ramallah’s income, withholding the funds is a potentially existential blow to the PA, which has faced severe economic pressure since the start of the Gaza war. Many have criticized the move claiming that it will only destabilize the area as the revenues are what pay salaries and makes it possible to import essential goods and utilities. Moreover, an estimated 144,000 people are no longer employed in the occupied West Bank as a result of the escalating violence and its repercussions on supply chains, production capacity and breadwinners’ inability to access their workplace.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 621,008
Deaths: 5,404
Recovered: 615,445
Syria
Despite Arab promises to rebuild Syria, many have walked away from doing so. Photo credit: Alaraby.com
In an interview with CNBC, the Minister of Finance in the Syrian regime's government, Kenan Yaghi, claimed that the losses of the Syrian economy during 13 years of war at about 300 billion dollars, contrary to previous estimates by Syrian and international experts, which spoke of at least double this number. Also he claimed that government is aiming for through private sector development, he expected to achieve an economic growth rate in Syria of 1.5% in 2024, similar to last year, noting that geopolitical tensions affected growth expectations. He also added the Syrian economy has begun the recovery phase, but some time is needed for positive results to appear on the ground. He said that Syria needs support in the coming period at the level of economic reforms, noting that international sanctions imposed on the banking system impede financial transfers to Syria. He stressed the Syrian economy's need for support and loans to rebuild infrastructure, noting that there is communication with Syrian investors abroad, to include their investments inside Syria. The government’s economic policy has been seeking for some time to attract Arab aid and investments in expensive basic sectors, especially electricity and energy in general. However, international sanctions, especially American ones, are hindering these efforts. As a result, he concluded that some Arab countries have backed away from announced investments in Syria for fear of being exposed to sanctions.
Although Syria was promised a series of investments from Arab nations and most have not come to fruition some countries ventured forward in investing within the country. For instance, Iran is continuing is increasing the size of its investments by setting up two insurance companies in Syria. Also, Czech State Secretary of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs travelled to Damascus where he met with Syrian officials, becoming one of the most senior European diplomats to visit Syria since the onset of the uprising in 2011. The point of the meeting was to enhance investments in Syria, despite EU sanctions. For this reason, a Czech engineering company got involved in the electricity sector. To further empower the private sector and to demonstrate to foreigners that Syria is in the process of liberalizing its economy, Damascus has opened the tobacco sector to private investment, a move that puts an end to decades of state monopoly over the harvesting, production, and trading of tobacco. The revenues of tobacco and cigarette sales of the General Organization for Tobacco stood at SYP 433 billion in 2023, with a net profit of SYP 19.5 billion.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 57,743
Deaths: 3,165
Recovered: 54,578
Cyprus
The meeting between Deputy Minister of Shipping, Marina Hadjimanolis with the Minister of Maritime Affairs and Insular Policy of Greece, Christos Stylianides.
President Nikos Christodoulides, at the 35th annual general meeting of the Cyprus Shipping Chamber held at the Four Seasons in Limassol, lauded the successes of the shipping industry. He turned everyone’s attention to the 14% increase in the number of companies registered in the Cyprus Tonnage Tax System, reaching 420 registrations, the granting of state land for the construction of the junior ministry’s new head offices, and the re-election of Cyprus to the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) Council. To capitalize on the success of the maritime industry and to use it as a vehicle to further economic prosperity, Cypriot Deputy Minister of Shipping, Marina Hadjimanolis convened with the Minister of Maritime Affairs and Insular Policy of Greece, Christos Stylianides to discuss the competitiveness of European shipping, the shortage of seafarers, the digitalization of services and the maritime passenger connection between Cyprus and Greece. According to the Cypriot Minister, there is room for upgrading the relationship by creating deeper coordination and synergy between the two as both countries are deeply aligned with each other’s interests. For this reason, she mentioned the establishment of the Supreme Council of Greece and Cyprus which has improved joint actions and initiatives. She also confirmed her country’s participation in Greece's major shipping exhibition "Poseidonia 2024". The end result of this bilateral meeting was agreeing on the necessity of absolute digitalization and simplification of the procedures between the two Ministries.
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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 681,110
Deaths: 1,365
Recovered: 546,203
3. THE HUMANITARIAN SITUATION
Egypt
• Between 7 and 10 May, UNHCR Egypt renewed 1,060 UNHCR documents and newly registered a total of 6,400 refugees and asylum-seekers. Of them, some 6,000 were new arrivals from Sudan. Additionally, 8,800 individuals forced to flee Sudan received registration appointments. [1]
• WFP Egypt is distributing daily ready-to-eat (RTE) food rations to displaced populations from Sudan upon their arrival in Egypt at both border crossings, Argeen and Qustol, as well as key transit points. [2]
• According to Save the Children who fled to Egypt from the war in Gaza are haunted by the horrors they experienced and are struggling with nightmares, anger, bedwetting and anxiety. [3]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 634,728 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of May.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for the beginning of May, are distributed as follows:
189,396 in Amman Governorate (29.8 %)
162,063 in Mafraq Governorate (25.5%)
125,682 in Irbid Governorate (19.8%)
92,912 in Zarqa Governorate (14.6%)
16,421 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
12,645 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
8,283 in Jarash Governorate (1.3%)
8,104 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
8,028 in Maan Governorate (1.3%)
5,567 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
3,749 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
1,383 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
495 in other (0.1%)
• The Jordanian Crown Prince, in an interview, warned that there are one million and 300 thousand Syrian refugees in Jordan and 50% are under the age of 15. [4]
• Amnesty International released a statement claiming that Jordanian authorities must immediately halt the forcible deportation of Syrian refugees who would face credible risks of serious human rights violations if they are returned to Syria. [5]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 307,251 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of May, are distributed as follows:
138,690 in Erbil (49.1%)
39,312 in Dahuk (25.4%)
36,481 in Sulaymaniyah (12.9%)
13,690 in Ninewa (4.8%)
13,114 in Baghdad (4.6%)
2,049 in Kerbala (0.7%)
867 in Najaf (0.3%)
2,385 in Kirkuk (0.8%)
1,375 in Anbar (0.5%)
2542 in other areas (0.9%) [6]
• After six years of providing surgical care in the aftermath of the war in Mosul, Iraq, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) is handing over medical services at Al-Wahda hospital in East Mosul to the Directorate of Health (DoH). This decision comes as Mosul advances in its recovery journey after years of deadly battles. [7]
• Floods in the Khanaqin district, Kashkul and Al-Salam villages in Qartaba district, initially destroyed one hundred households prompting NGOs such as Red Crescent to Intervene. [8]
Lebanon
Since the beginning of April, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 779,645.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
295,392 in Bekaa (37.9%)
220,434 in North Lebanon (28.3%)
176,611 in Beirut (22.7%)
87,208 in South Lebanon (11.2%) [9]
• Lebanon will participate in the eighth edition of the Brussels Conference dedicated to Syria, but this time with a different approach and content. The delegation will convey to the international community Lebanon’s unified stance on addressing the refugee crisis and rejecting their continued stay. [10]
• The European Union presented €1 billion in financial aid to Lebanon over three years to prop up the country's economy and help prevent a surge in refugees leaving for Europe. Nevertheless, Lebanese politicians refused. [11]
• Amnesty International condemned Lebanon’s steeping up of its crackdown on refugees ahead of the Brussels conference. [12]
Syria
• According to Medecins Sans Frontières, International financial support to the health system in northern Syria is in decline. The medical needs in the region far exceed the available medical services, with Syrian people bearing the greatest burden due to limited support and the closure of hospitals and health facilities. [13]
• According to the UNHCR, people in need of essential Shelter and NFI assistance across Syria during 2024 stands at 6.8M and 6.2M for Core and 5.5M of Winter items. [14]
• GOAL’s emergency response project RELIEF, funded by the EU and other donors, reached over one million people across Northwest Syria between May 2023 and May 2024. Moving forward, GOAL will expand its outreach under the project through an augmented cash-based food assistance programme and the introduction of new dignified shelter activities. [15]
• The SRTF completed rehabilitation-related civil works on the Aleppo Health Directorate building and the Implementing Partner’s warehouses as well as their surrounding courtyards, supported under its Health project; “Rehabilitation of a Medical Facility and Support for Two Health Facilities in Northern Aleppo”. [16]
• As part of the SRTF's commitment to support Food Security and to ensure the continuity of bread production at reasonable prices, the SRTF delivered 477 MT of soft wheat to the Implementing Entity of the project “Complementary Project for Enhancing Food Security in the North of Aleppo Governorate – Phase VII". [17]
Cyprus
• The Cypriot government claimed that it is among at least eight EU member states who want safe zones to be declared in parts of Syria to allow the repatriation of refugees from its more than decade-old civil war. [18]
[1] OCHA, May 15, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/egypt/unhcr-egypt-sudan-emergency-response-update-15-may-2024
[2] OCHA, May 23, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/egypt/wfp-egypt-country-brief-april-2024
[3] OCHA, https://reliefweb.int/report/egypt/egypt-palestinian-children-who-fled-gazas-war-haunted-nightmares-and-anxiety
[4] Al Markazia, May 26, 2024, https://www.almarkazia.com/ar/news/show/558066
[5] Amnesty, May 17, 2024, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/05/jordan-authorities-must-stop-forcible-deportation-of-two-detained-refugees-to-syria/
[6] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[7] OCHA, May 3, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/msf-hands-over-activities-after-six-years-healing-wounds-mosul-enar
[8] OCHA, May 3, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/salam-khanaqin-and-villages-kashkul-are-being-flooded-water-and-iraqi-red-crescent-stepping-its-efforts-help-them-enar
[9] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[10] LBC, 2024-05-25https://www.lbcgroup.tv/news/news-bulletin-reports/774524/lebanon-to-present-unified-stance-on-syrian-refugee-crisis-at-brussels/en
[11] Euro News, 02/05/2024, https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/05/02/eu-unveils-1-billion-aid-package-for-lebanon-in-bid-to-curb-refugee-flows
[12] Amnesty International, May 27, 2024, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2024/05/world-leaders-must-commit-to-protecting-syrian-refugees-as-lebanon-steps-up-crackdown-ahead-of-brussels-conference/
[13] OCHA, May 24, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/syrians-suffer-more-funding-cuts-despite-severe-medical-needs
[14] OCHA, May 21, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/syria-arab-republic-whole-syria-shelternfi-sector-quarterly-factsheet-q4-2023
[15] OCHA, May 21, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/goal-and-eu-reach-over-million-people-northwest-syria-vital-assistance-following-february-2023-earthquakes
[16] OCHA, May 15, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-health-project-completes-rehabilitation-activities-post-2023-earthquake
[17] OCHA, May 8, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-continues-wheat-supply-under-its-multi-phased-food-security-project-north-aleppo
[18] AAWSAT, May 18, 2024, https://english.aawsat.com/world/5021879-cyprus-says-8-eu-states-back-plan-return-syria-refugees