Middle East Socioeconomic Overview Report: April 2024

*Missiles being intercepted over Occupied Palestine. Photo credit: Reuters.*

1. Introduction

During this month, opposing forces escalated the magnitude of the armed conflict almost clashing with one another in a full-blown war. For the time being, diplomatic efforts have halted any further escalation but have failed to address the great divide between foes. Moreover, humanitarian conditions remain dire and are at risk of getting worse, knowingly an incursion into Rafah may occur sooner or later. Currently, diplomatic efforts are underway to stall the planned ground invasion by implementing a truce in Gaza. Yet, as always, nothing is guaranteed.

2. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION

Egypt

In response to all the organizations, economic analysists, and rating agencies, the Egyptian Finance Minister Mohamed Maait said claimed that the number one priority of Egypt is to decrease inflation to the level set by the Central Bank. Already, inflation fell to 33.3 percent in March from a record high of 38 percent in September, well above the central bank's long-term target of between five and nine percent. Meanwhile, It is expected that growth in the fiscal year that begins in July will rise to 4.2% from 2.8% this year. The minister also claimed during a meeting in Washington that the government also hopes to reduce interest rates, reduce the state's role in the economy and allow the private sector to compensate for the shortfall. He explained that the government set a limit of one trillion Egyptian pounds ($20.6 billion) for all public investments, including investment made by the army so that to put a lid on government control. In this way, the private sector will be allowed to grow up to 65 or 70% of the economy. Such a step is crucial to fix the economy and to the economic reprecussions the war in Gaza in terms revenues from trade accoss the Suez Canal which has decreased by 60%. Neverthless, the Egyptian Ministry of Trade and Industry showed that Egypt’s merchandise exports increased by 5.3% during the first quarter of 2024 to $9.312 billion despite the set back. For the time being, Egypt is still in the process of adapting to the situation and it searches for a solution for its disruption in trade.

From his end, Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly also claimed that Egypt aims to increase its exports by 15% to 20% annually. According to the Cabinet statement, Madbouly was tasked with formulating a practical implementation plan to achieve these goals according to a specific timetable, indicating that he would reconvene to discuss it and settle its terms. During the process, Madbouly discussed efforts to enhance export rates from various productive sectors, as well as ways to deepen local industries, which in turn contribute to increasing export rates, which can increase the dollar inflow. The Prime Minister also pointed out that the current period is witnessing stability in the availability of dollar resources, stressing that the government is working through several ways to ensure the sustainability of the state’s hard currency resources. Madbouly affirmed the government’s readiness to respond to any requests to localize and deepen the industry locally, and expand existing industries. In other words, the government will work on providing a list of products and services that are needed to be localized to the manufacturers/providers of the products and services.

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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 516,023

Deaths: 24,613

Recovered: 442,182

Jordan

Despite the disruption of trade in the Red Sea that has raised shipping fees by 200% from East Asia and 60% from the US and Europe, a general sense of optisim is prevailing among international commentators. For instance, the IMF and the World Bank claimed that Jordanian economy is "solid" and the reforms and policies taken by the government have contributed to protecting it thus postively reflecting in several international classifications although the events in Gaza have directly impacted the Kingdom. Also, it is likely that Jordanian economic growth for the current year will reach around 2.6% and 3% for the next. It was pointed out as well that the main work for Jordan now is to reduce the ratio of public debt to gross domestic product, and this requires continuity of measures and reforms, in addition to expanding the size of the economy. Of course, this process was made easier by the approval of a IMF program for the benefit of the Kingdom at the beginning of the year, aiming to support Jordan’s economic growth and development strategy, by raising the level of foreign aid and assistance. Nevetheless, domestic economic observers were not too content of such declerations as they consider the government’s powerlessness to address the high percentage of poverty. According to them, the poverty rate during the current year is the highest compared to successive increases from 2005 to today. This attributed to the loss of thousands of jobs due to the boycotting of several companies related to the enitites supporting the war on Gaza. As a result, the percentage of unemployment is expected to increase from 25% in 2022 to 40% in 2024. Despite their pessisim, they did relfect on two positive internal aspects that might prove beneficial. They include the decrease in the bank interests rates which is an important stimulator for growth and the switching to local companies as a replacement of international boycotted ones.

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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 1,746,997

Deaths: 14,122

Recovered: 1,731,007

Iraq

During this month, the Iraqi government revealed that it has succeeded in reducing external public debt by more than 50 percent from the end of 2022 until the current year. Basem Al-Awadi, the spokesman of the Iraqi government, explained that the external debt decreased to about 9 billion during the current year, compared to 19.729 billion dollars in 2022 due to some measures put in place. They include stopping a number of borrowing operations due to their delay and lack of productivity, organizing, managing and auditing debts, and restructuring some debts and directing them to create strategic projects. According to him, all this was done by organizing the process of financial cooperation with the international community in specific contexts, including direct productive borrowing, providing sovereign guarantees to ensure the that projects will be undertaken by the private sector for the benefit of the government, and sovereign guarantees provided by the government for the benefit of institutions that finance the Iraqi private sector importing production lines in order to build factories inside Iraq. These steps pave the way towards further integration of Iraq into the international economic cycle while building Iraqi industry, thus allowing the country to shift away from an ecomony dependent on reveniew from oil export. Also it will allow it to develop its services sector and social care sector, while improving related infrustructure. Nevetheless, this doesn’t mean Iraq will minimaze the oil sector. This was evident during Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani’s visit to Texas in which he outlined significant energy projects and investment opportunities in Iraq in a meeting with major American oil and gas companies. According to Arab American Chamber of Commerce, the aim of the meeting is to aximizing investment in oil and gas and to discussed strategic projects and investment opportunities, in 30 oil and gas fields and an exploratory gas block in various regions of Iraq.

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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 2,465,545

Deaths: 25,375

Recovered: 2,439,497

Lebanon

Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati at the Arab Economic Security Forum. Photo credit: LBC

The Minister of Economy and Trade in the caretaker government, Amin Salam, indicated during an interview with Al-Sharq news channel, that “Lebanon is in a very advanced stage” of discussions with the World Bank regarding a program that supports vital sectors of the economy. On the sidelines of his participation in the spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank, he pointed out that the talks with the bank focused on sustainability programs that create growth in the economy, noting that a program was discussed that addresses economic issues and supports the IT and agricultural sectors and sectors that create job opportunities and economic activity. Especially since Lebanon suffers greatly from these problems, and needs programs that address these issues. Concerning the IMF, things were not so positive. Salam pointed out that the Fund’s patience ran out and its officials were clear in the meetings. According to them, the IMF will withdraw this opportunity from Lebanon if it doesn’t act now, and it will be facing an unknown future in terms of regaining the confidence of the international community. Moreover, the Lebanese authorities should stop using the Syrian refugee issue as an excuse for all its economic problems rather than delaying reforms that mean greater accountability. Meanwhile, Caretaker Prime Minister Najib Mikati, at the Arab Economic Security Forum, stated that Lebanon can bounce back and recover thanks to the strength of its society and cooperation from its allies. However, he revealed that he has received major warnings from the Europeans and Arabs claiming that the government should intervene to end the armed conflict. He did not elaborate whether it was a mere warning or vailed threat, but many commentators are choosing the latter.

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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 1,243,838

Deaths: 10,952

Recovered: 1,087,587

Palestine

Borrell: There is no way that there will be an Israeli veto on the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination. Photo credit: Aljazeera

As stranded refugees in Rafah live in a state of unknown fate, diplomatic efforts are underway to either avert the eventual invasion, or buy time for humanitarian efforts to transfer as much Palestinians as possible to safe camps. This is good news for Gaza and West Bank’s economy which have been all but totally shut down due to the war. There are no guarantees that a permanent ceasefire will take place but moderating countries are pushing for at least a 40-day period in which opposing sides can decide whether or not they want to keep the ‘sustainable peace’. For the time being, both sides seem exhausted from the war and would like any opportunity that would give them some breathing space to regroup, curb international pressure, and better address the humanitarian issue. Nevertheless, both sides do not trust one another especially when the Zionist Occupying Force has tightened its stranglehold on the Palestinian economy by withholding tax revenues and banning Palestinian worker. Also, European and Arab nations are in preparation for recognizing a Palestinian state. According to European Union foreign policy official Josep Borrell, several member states within the union are expected to recognize the Palestinian state by the end of next May. Also, he claimed that there is no way for the occupying state to have a “veto” over the right of the Palestinian people to self-determination and for there to be a state for the Palestinians. Hence, such international moves might prompt further tension thus hindering peace talks.

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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 621,008

Deaths: 5,404

Recovered: 615,445

Syria

For some time now, Syria has been witnessing a series of economic dialogues, initiated by the economics faculties in public universities, and focused on reviewing the role assigned to the state in public life and the applied economic and social policies. In this context, the Syrian Minister of Economy voiced his criticism towards previous economic policies, and their responsibility for aggravating the current situation. It has become clear that official discourse has begun to look at the pre-war economic era in a different way than what the average Syrian citizen is accustomed to hearing. That stage in Syrian history was not ideal at all, as it witnessed a number of cumulative errors at the level of policies and procedures, some of which date back decades. In this sense, the war did not create the economic and social problems that the country is currently suffering from, but rather allowed to surface, according to the Minister of Economy and Foreign Trade. Moreover, there is a general understanding among economists on the policies that are supposed to be the focus of discussion and review, before drafting any national document related to the country’s future in all fields and sectors. As such, three issues should be taken into consideration: Responding to the requirements of the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and European Partnerships, and taking neoliberal policies as a basis for implementing policies. The second issue is the mistake of allowing merchants to import basic materials which caused inflation and a depreciation in currency. The third issue was the mistake of adopting the policy of a social market economy as a mere title while concealing the real policies being followed which were the gradual cancellation of support provided to the consumer and producer, the opening of markets and foreign trade, and the abolition of the role of labor unions.

Such open dialogues are very important to pinpoint the actual problems that are holding back the country. Admittance that Syria can continue to rely on old outdated policies, is the most important step to fix what is wrong. Even if more companies decided to invest in the country, such flaws will always hold Syria back. Now the remaining question remains: Will the Syrian authorities actually take these suggestions into consideration or will its highly centralized decision making process continue to run its course? The economy is still in bad shape and the projects being implemented here and there are not enough to fix the problem. Moreover, regional tension in the region is increasing thus threatening trade and the movement of materials. Therefore, now might be the right time to consider measures that will improve the country’s self-reliance and domestic produce.

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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 57,743

Deaths: 3,165

Recovered: 54,578

Cyprus

In a recent study issued by the University of Cyprus’s Economic Research Centre (ERC), the developments in the region did actually affect Cyprus’s economy in March, despite claims of authorities stating otherwise. As stated in a related press release by the ERC, the ongoing conflict between Russia and Ukraine and continuing military conflicts in the Middle East exacerbate international uncertainty thus impacting Cyprus’s economy which is interconnected with regional countries. This has led to growing uncertainty in Cyprus escalating significantly in March 2024 compared to March 2023. Other factors also contributed to the ERC’s evaluation, such as a decline in property sales contracts and an increase in the international Brent Crude oil price played significant roles. The escalation in oil prices, for the first time since December 2022, exacerbated the negative growth trend. Another detriment that is weighing down on the economy, apart from the assessment made by the research center, the country still has a significant debt of €23.03 billion, which is about 77.3% of its total economic output and it has yet to decrease its spending to cut costs. What’s more, recent annual reports have revealed that by the end of 2023, total expenditure increased by €1.21 billion, or about 11.3%. This money went towards issues like paying government employees, social welfare programs, other operating expenses, subsidies, and investments in things like infrastructure. Commentators suggested that this not entirely detrimental to the island’s economy. After all, the increase in cost came with an increase in revenue by €1.374 billion, or about 11.9%. Nevertheless, the country must watch its debt levels and continue to manage its finances carefully to ensure long-term stability and growth.

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According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 681,110

Deaths: 1,365

Recovered: 546,203

3. THE HUMANITARIAN SITUATION

Egypt

· According to Filippo Grandi, United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, the prospect of Gazans crossing into Egypt from the border town of Rafah to escape a military assault would make the resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict impossible and cause an "atrocious dilemma" for the people fleeing.[1]

· The Egyptian government stepped up military reinforcements in and around the once restive North Sinai province ahead of an imminent ground invasion of the Palestinian Rafah City, bordering Egypt. The move is to put a lid on the prospective inflow of refugees.[2]

· The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) in Egypt and the European Commission's Service for Foreign Policy Instruments (FPI) launched a new partnership to empower refugees, people affected by crisis, and host communities in Egypt by improving their self-reliance and fostering social cohesion.[3]

Jordan

The UNHCR states that there are currently 638,760 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of April.

The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for the beginning of April, are distributed as follows:

191,670 in Amman Governorate (30.0 %)
162,224 in Mafraq Governorate (25.4%)
126,326 in Irbid Governorate (19.8%)
93,456 in Zarqa Governorate (14.6%)
16,554 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
12,693 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
8,328 in Jarash Governorate (1.3%)
8,163 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
8,081 in Maan Governorate (1.3%)
5,579 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
3,772 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
1,396 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
518 in other (0.1%)

· Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ayman Safadi met with Secretary General of the Danish Refugee Council (DRC) Charlotte Slente, with the talks focusing on the council's efforts to support Syrian refugees in Jordan. The minister warned that his country will not be able to fill the gap for taking care of refugees once outside funding dwindles further.[4]

Iraq

The UNHCR states that there are currently 307,251 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.

The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of March, are distributed as follows:

113,456 in Erbil (52.5%)
39,312 in Dahuk (18.2%)
30,446 in Sulaymaniyah (14.1%)
2,060 in Ninewa (1.0%)
16,298 in Baghdad (8.2%)
2,760 in Kerbala (1.3%)
2,352 in Najaf (1.1%)
2,518 in Kirkuk (1.2%)
1,692 in Anbar (0.8%)
3,693 in other areas (4.2%)[5]

· The Government of Iraq and the United Nations organized a new action plan for the protection of children against lingering explosive ammunitions which has killed many over the past years. [6]

· The Health Resources and Services Availability Monitoring System (HeRAMS) initiative has digitized health care management in Iraq and made vital information accessible for planning and decision-making purposes.[7]

Lebanon

[UNHCR Lebanon did not update the stats and figures of refugee presence and distribution.]

Since the beginning of January, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 784,884.

Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:

299,402 in Bekaa (38.1%)
220,931 in North Lebanon (28.1%)
176,836 in Beirut (22.5%)
87,715 in South Lebanon (11.2%)[8]

· Due to the abduction and murdering of a senior politician from a political party which opposes the presence of Syrian refugees in Lebanon, Syrians are being reported to be staying indoors as fears of xenophobic violence. [9]

· New billboards began popping up nationwide in March, carrying a rallying call that “the Syrian displaced issue needs immediate action. This also is fueling tension between Lebanese and Syrians.[10]

· Refugees International stated that it has a deep concern over a new proposal from Lebanon’s Minister of Social Affairs that calls for a nationwide survey of Syrian refugees to determine those who “meet the criteria of a displaced person.” Under the plan, those deemed by the state as “non-displaced” – those who lack proper residency or legal status – would be forcibly evicted from their tents and shelters and deported to Syria, unless third countries choose to resettle them. [11]

Syria

· Qatar Charity (QC) has set up an automated bread production line in Maabatli in the Afrin district of northern Syria, as part of Qatar Charity’s ‘Support the Wheat Value Chain’ project for the fifth consecutive year. [12]

· In Japan’s eighth contribution to the Fund and will contribute to expanding the SRTF operations under its Recovery and Stabilization programs in the Northwest (NWS) and Northeast (NES) of Syria, SRTF received a new generous contribution of around EUR 1.96 million from Japan. This brings Japan’s total contributions to the Fund to EUR 53.36 million since its inception.[13]

· According to SIRF, over the last nine months, more than 16,000 conflict-related incidents have been reported by humanitarian partners, a 33% increase from the previous period.[14]

Cyprus

· Cyprus has suspended the processing of all asylum applications by Syrian nationals due to an increase in the number of Syrian refugees arriving from Lebanon. According to the Cypriot government, more than 2,000 Syrian refugees arrived from Lebanon by sea in the first three months of 2024, compared to just 78 in the same period in the previous year.[15]

· According to reports from the Associated Press and European human rights group EuroMed Rights, The United Nations Refugee Agency’s (UNHCR) Cyprus spokesperson Emilia Strovolidou urged the country to stop forcibly pushing away Syrian refugee boats arriving from Lebanon in violation of international human rights law and the principle of non-refoulment.[16]

[1] Reuters, April 12, 2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/un-refugee-chief-says-outflow-gazans-into-egypt-would-make-conflict-resolution-2024-04-12/

[2] New Arab, https://www.newarab.com/news/egypt-steps-border-security-ahead-israeli-rafah-attack

[3]Mirage News, April 24, 2024, https://www.miragenews.com/wfp-eu-join-forces-to-empower-egyptian-refugees-1220875/

[4] Jordan Times, April 24, 2024, https://www.jordantimes.com/news/local/safadi-discusses-support-syrian-refugee-drc

[5] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5

[6] OCHA, April 19, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iraq-increase-grave-violations-against-children-critical-engagements-government-create-hope-better-future

[7] OCHA, April 7, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/herams-transforms-health-care-management-iraq

[8] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71

[9] The New Humanitarian, April 22, 2024, https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/news-feature/2024/04/22/syria-lebanon-fear-xenophobia-violence

[10] New Arab, April 23, 2024, https://www.newarab.com/analysis/ad-campaign-lebanon-fuelling-violence-against-syrians

[11]OCHA, April 10, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/lebanon-plan-vet-syrian-refugee-status-threatens-forced-returns

[12] OCHA, April 22, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/part-fifth-edition-support-wheat-value-chain-project-qatar-charity-enhances-food-security-northern-syria

[13] Relief Web, April 4, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/japan-boosts-srtfs-efforts-syria-eur-196-million

[14] Relief Web, April 9, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/escalating-regional-and-internal-conflicts-are-threatening-lives-people-syria-april-9-2024

[15]European Council on Refugees and Exiles, https://ecre.org/mediterranean-cyprus-suspends-processing-asylum-requests-of-syrians-enduring-unbearable-conditions-in-lebanon-and-syria-%E2%80%95-ngos-call-on-malta-to-halt-pushbacks-to-unsafe-libya-%E2%80%95-refuge/

[16] Jurist, April 21, 2024, https://www.jurist.org/news/2024/04/un-refugee-official-urges-cyprus-to-halt-efforts-to-push-back-syria-refugee-boats-arriving-from-lebanon/

On the Edge

Middle East Socioeconomic Overview Report: April 2024

1. Introduction

2. THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION

Egypt

Jordan

Iraq

Lebanon

Palestine

Syria

Cyprus

3. THE HUMANITARIAN SITUATION

Egypt

Jordan

Iraq

Lebanon

Syria

Cyprus

The modalities of church’s action in Peacebuilding – 1

The MECC Secretary General Dr. Michel Abs Presents a Lecture at the ACT Alliance MENA Forum Annual Meeting:

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