Unending Conflict
Report: October 2024
The occupier continues to pummel the Suburbs of Beirut at a daily basis. Photo credit: Al Jazeera.
1. Table of Acronyms
2. Introduction
The war in Gaza and Lebanon continues to drag on despite international condemnation of the occupier which continues to murder civilians. Unable to find a diplomatic solution to end the conflict the world braces for a prolonged conflict by mobilizing humanitarian aid to assist the displaced. Meanwhile regional players tighten their grip on the region by sending arms and related defensive equipment only to fuel the war and expanding it in scale and scope. Many are awaiting the outcome of the presidential election in the US hoping that either candidates will fulfill their promises for peace once elected.
3. The Socio-Economic Situation
Egypt
Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi welcoming Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. Photo credit: AFP
Due to the tensions taking place in the region, the World Bank lowered its expectations for the growth of the Egyptian economy to the level of 3.5 percent during the current fiscal year 2024/2025, a decrease of 0.7 percentage points from its previous expectations last June at the level of 4.2 percent. In its semi-annual growth report for the Middle East and North Africa region, it expected Suez Canal revenues to decline to $4.8 billion in the current fiscal year, or nearly half of the 8.8 billion USD recorded during the fiscal year 2022/2023, and a decrease of 27 percent from 6.6 billion USD recorded in the fiscal year 2023/2024. The UN also released a report detailing that the total economic cost of the Gaza war for the Egyptian economy will reach between $5.6 billion and $19.8 billion over the current and next fiscal years (2024-2025). This represents a loss of between 1.6% and 5.2% of average GDP, depending on the extent of the conflict's escalation. Traffic through the Suez Canal and the tourism sector were also hit hard, according to the report. Their revenues are expected to decrease by $3.7 billion to $13.7 billion over the current and next fiscal years. As for inflation official data indicated that the general annual inflation rate in Egyptian cities rose for the second month in a row last September, as it rose by 0.2 percentage points from the previous month to the level of 26.4 percent. Many economists expect inflation to rise for the third month in a row this October, due to the impact of recent price increases. With the continous increase in prices which has forced Egypt to increase oil prices by 17%, officials have stated that if the trend continues, the government will not be able to subsidize the price of oil in 2025. To make matters worse, there are growing fears that unemployment will reach 9.1% in the event of the continuation of military escalation.
Because of all these calamaties and the impotance of the stability of Egypt for the overall region, some of Egypt’s international and regional partners are stepping up their assistance to the country. For instance, the International Monetary Fund made changes to the charges paid by debtors thus allowing Egypt to save up to 190 million dollars a year. In other words, the IMF has decreased the cost of borrowing for every member countries, which is a really good move for Egypt which is the IMF’s second-largest debtor, with an outstanding balance owed to the institution of more than $13 billion. Another positive development is Saudi Arabia stating that it will pump further 15 billion USD on top the billions it did during the previous months. Bandar Al Ameri, Head of the Saudi-Egyptian Business Council, unveiled the joint agreement, adding that an official declerations will be announced soon. The investments will cover key sectors, including energy, industry, real estate development, and tourism.
Jordan
The Jordanian Economic Forum during one of its meetings. Photo credit: maqar.com
Fitch Solutions released a report in which it claimed that it expects the growth of the Jordanian economy to accelerate to 2.5% in 2025, supported by monetary easing and interest rate cuts by the Central Bank of Jordan and the expected decrease in regional tensions that support a rise in both consumer spending and commercial investment. Fixed investment in Jordan will also rise in 2025, and monetary easing will improve credit affordability for businesses, while the expected decline in regional tensions from the second half of 2025 onwards will encourage capital expenditures that have been postponed since the fourth quarter of 2023. Despite the positivity, Jordanian economists are concerned about the public debt which has exceeded 48 billion dinars, an alarming number, in which the debt-to-GDP ratio exceeds 106%. This places Jordan among the most indebted countries in the region while finding itself unable to achieve a balance between financial obligations and economic development. For the time being and despite all reforms, the government has so far tried to solve the problem by raising taxes and fees that has unfortunately made life more difficult to the ordinary citizen. For this reason, the Jordanian Economic Forum has been holding several meetings to discuss ways to fix such an issue. Members recommended rethinking productivity and lost opportunities that can be exploited to achieve a qualitative leap in the Jordanian economy and promotion of certain productive projects that contribute to creating job opportunities and employing technology. Members also pointed out that there are many natural resources in Jordan that have not been exploited adequately, especially those related to the glass industry, noting that they are abundant in Ma’an Governorate, and can be used in the glass and ceramic industry.
Iraq
The Iraqi Prime Minister calls for expanding economic cooperation with Egypt. Photo credit: Sky News.
During this month, it was reported by an Iraqi official Iraq produced up to 3.94 million runs of oil per day in September, which is less than its share within the “OPEC+” coalition of about 4 million, highlighting its inability to meet its commitments. Production was less than the quota due to a decline in exports, domestic consumption. Moreover, Kurdistan region decreased its production by 140,000 barrels per day, while 120,000 barrels were reduced in southern Iraq. This signals that Iraq may not be able to rely on the oil sector in the long run, if further decreases in production are reported. This means that the country should rethink the process of expediting the diversification of the economy and expanding partnerships with international companies or countries to improve non-oil sectors. As such, Iraqi Prime Minister Muhammad Shiaa Al-Sudani, during his meeting with the head of the Egyptian Elsewedy Group of Companies, Ahmed Elsewedy, and a group of directors of Egyptian industrial and commercial companies, called for expanding economic cooperation between Iraq and Egypt, especially in partnerships with the Egyptian private sector, and that the investment opportunities offered in Iraq, which were received from Arab and foreign companies, exceeded 100 billion dollars, which reveals capacity for economic growth at all levels and fields, according to a statement by the Iraqi government. It was also agreed to study the establishment of industrial cities in Baghdad, where the group presented a map of projects that will be studied by a body of consultants and sectoral bodies. The meeting also discussed investment opportunities and partnerships so that to localize the electrical transformer industry, smart meters connected to the electrical grid, and the iron and carbon steel industry. Another attempt in searching for possible solutions, the National Conference on “Informal Work and Pathways to Decent Work in Iraq” brought together national and international stakeholders which included representatives from federal ministries, local authorities, workers' and employers' organizations, academia, civil society, and development partners, to foster a unified approach to formalizing Iraq’s economy. The event set the stage for an ambitious national strategy aimed at expanding social protection coverage and formalizing employment across sectors over the next five years. The issue of turning some forms of informal employment to formal was discussed since it is essential to safeguard workers’ rights but also for driving Iraq’s economic recovery and future prosperity.
Lebanon
During October, the occupier bombed Beirut at an almost daily basis. Photo credit: Breaking Defense.
Parallel to the destruction and catastrophe happening across Lebanon, rumors are circulating that there may be a ceasefire soon. Such an idea is pushed by the heavy losses the country is withstanding and grave the economic degradation which is pushing more people into poverty. To add to the misery of the country, Lebanon has been included on the gray list of countries subject to special scrutiny by the Financial Action Task Force (FATF), concerned with combating financial crimes. When a country is included in this list, it is subject to strict oversight and is obligated to conduct further reviews and evaluations to improve its systems, while the list currently includes 21 countries, including Nigeria, Venezuela, and Syria. This decision came after one year of warning, especially since the economic reforms demanded by the international community were not implemented, including the election of a president of the republic. Today’s war has increased the economic catastrophe that began in 2019 and has accelerated the giving of this classification. As a result, confidence in the banking sector in Lebanon has collapsed and the cash economy and the activity of money transfer companies and illegal exchange shops has surged. This led to a lack of monitoring and financial audit, which pushed Lebanon into the Gray list. Today, many expect that the inclusion of Lebanon on the gray list will further distance investment from it, given that it affects the relationship between some Lebanese banks and the global financial system. Moreover, the conflict is expected to continue until the end of the year, increasing the government's financing needs by 30%, coinciding with a decrease in government revenues by 9% and a contraction in investments by more than 6% over the next two years. Estimates of the United Nations Development Program indicate that the rise in unemployment will affect one million and 200 thousand workers in Lebanon, with the unemployment rate rising to 32.6% by the end of this year.
Palestine
The unemployment rate of affected areas is 90%. Photo credit: Al Jazeera
According to UN estimates, the war has destroyed about 80% of Gaza's infrastructure, including roads, hospitals, and schools, greatly impacting the delivery of basic services. It is also estimated that the number of displaced people has exceeded 2 million people, increasing pressure on limited resources and leading to the spread of an unprecedented humanitarian crisis. In addition, unemployment rates have witnessed an alarming rise, with the unemployment rate reaching nearly 90% in the affected areas, indicating the loss of many job opportunities, as a result of the destruction of commercial and industrial facilities. The livelihood crisis has also worsened, as the prices of basic goods rose by up to 170% after the conflict, leaving the most vulnerable groups facing increasing challenges in meeting their daily needs. As for the West Bank, it suffered greatly from the repercussions of the war that broke out on October 7, as many economic and social problems worsened. The most prominent of these problems is the repeated invasion of cities and camps in the northern West Bank (Jenin, Nablus, Tulkarm,...), which led to the destruction of infrastructure and severe damage to commercial and residential facilities. Occupation policies have also led to alarmingly high unemployment rates, as many workers are prevented from working within the occupied territories, which increases economic pressure on Palestinian families. In addition, the West Bank witnessed a decline in local and foreign investments, which negatively affected economic growth and job opportunities. The current crisis has also worsened as a result of the high prices of basic commodities and foodstuffs, as families suffer from difficulties in securing their daily needs. Together, these problems pose serious challenges to sustainable development in the West Bank, which requires urgent efforts from the government and the international community to find effective solutions.
Syria
The economy is still in a fragile state. Despite this, the government announced that it will grow by 1.5%. Photo credit: Al Jazeera.
Once again, the topic of revitalizing the economy is at the forefront of the Syrian scene after the country sustained significant damage to its infrastructure, resources and material assets. During the last decade, the war turned Syria into a fragile economy that suffers from fragmentation and setbacks, which negatively affected growth rates, production, trade and capital flows. While the government of the Syrian regime is trying to take measures to revive the production, investment and monetary sectors, which are the sectors most affected by the conflict, analysts believe that these measures are merely compensatory solutions, intended to compensate for the losses suffered by the oil, trade, tourism and industry sectors, and are not solutions to the problems within the economy, which has been suffering from a structural defect for decades. Others described the Syrian economy as hybrid, lacking an identity because it relied on selected strategies and conflicting policies, which failed to achieve standards of growth and fair distribution of wealth and income, and helped an influential class to monopolize its spoils and establish financial empires. As for the rest of the population, they find themselves in a precarious situation. As winter approaches, Syrians find themselves facing a new economic challenge that deepens the burdens of their daily lives, with a salary not exceeding 400,000 liras per month. With the onset of winter, financial management for the Syrian family becomes almost impossible, as the prices of fuel, clothes, and foodstuffs rise, which drives many to the verge of despair, providing them the basic needs has become an arduous task. Simply running the heater for four hours a day may cost the families five liters of subsidized fuel per day, or 150 liters per month, while they are only given 50 subsidized liters. As such, during the coming winter season the failing economy and its inability to provide a decent living for the average Syrian citizen, will weigh heavily on the country.
Despite the fragile state of the economy, there is some silver lining. Several foreign companies from Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, and even Germany have taken legal steps signaling interest in starting operations in government-controlled areas of Syria. Some analysts view this as a positive sign that they are confident the war in the region will not expand to involve Syria and that the country is in a recovery stage. To add to this argument, Syria released its planned 2025 budget in which rising investments are detected with a decreased deficit of 21%. As such, the budget will stand at SYP 52.6 trillion, up 48 percent from SYP 35.5 trillion this year, and SYP 16.55 trillion in 2023. In foreign currency terms, the budget is forecasted at USD 3.89 billion, a 26 percent increase from USD 3.08 billion in 2024. Also a bit of positive news, the government declared that the cotton industry has finally stabilized after years of neglect and negative outlook. All of these developments complement what the Ministry of Economy declaring that this year, the Syrian economy will grow by 1.5%.
Cyprus
Finance Minister Makis Keravnos declaring new round of measures to alleviate the situation. Cyprus-mail.com
During October, the IMF declared that it expects Cyprus’ economic growth in 2024 to increase from 2.7% to 3.3%. This marks an increase from earlier estimates made in April, when growth was projected at 2.9%. As such this positive outlook reflects confidence in the local economy’s resilience and potential for expansion. According to Morningstar DBRS, this growth is due to strong revenue growth, mainly stemming from social security contributions and corporate income tax, have been the main driver of Cyprus’ strong fiscal outcomes, which have improved remarkably in recent years. Cyprus will not just stop at upgrading but also at making the lives of its citizens. Due to the rising global inflation and rise of costs in Cyprus, the government expressed that will implement a new round of measures to help alleviate the rising cost of living, but did not specify much details. Cyprus also has been busy on the bilateral front as it has been engaging in strategic dialogue with the US, to enhance bilateral and regional security, foster economic innovation and prosperity, and uphold shared democratic values and respect for international law. Ways of advancing practical cooperation in areas including crisis management and law enforcement, energy security, culture, education, innovation and technology, trade and investment, and people-to people ties, were also discussed. All these topics will be discussed later in further details through later meetings that will be held during the coming period.
4. The Humanitarian Situation
Egypt
Four Sudanese journalists held in a refugee center in Egypt face imminent deportation to Sudan, where they could face reprisals for their journalism.[1]
An agreement with the International Organization for Migration (IMO) was signed to relocate 300 registered refugees from Egypt to different areas in Portugal, setting a vision to integrate them in society.[2]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 624,499 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of October.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for the beginning of October, are distributed as follows:
-184,888 in Amman Governorate (29.8%)
-159,710 in Mafraq Governorate (25.7%)
- 122,058 in Irbid Governorate (19.6%)
-91,714 in Zarqa Governorate (14.8%)
-15,892 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
-12,316 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
-8,008 in Jarash Governorate (1.3%)
-7,893 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
-8,063 in Maan Governorate (1.3%)
-5,293 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
-3,643 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
-1,295 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
-409 in other (0.1%)
Over 20 business entities participated in a UNHCR roundtable on the simplified rules of origin to discuss opportunities for increasing exports from EU to Jordan and employment prospects for Syrian refugees and Jordanians.[3]
The International Labor Program PROSPECTS program has launched its Approach to Inclusive Market Systems (AIMS) training program in Jordan, to help 25 business experts design more sustainable, market-driven livelihood interventions for refugees and host communities on the ground.[4]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 324,237 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of October, are distributed as follows:
-119,726 in Erbil (51.3%)
-39,658 in Dahuk (17.2%)
-31,712 in Sulaymaniyah (13.6%)
-2,313 in Ninewa (1%)
-25,833 in Baghdad (11.1%)
-2,758 in Kerbala (1.2%)
-2,367 in Najaf (1%)
-2,772 in Kirkuk (1.2%)
-1,693 in Anbar (0.7%)
- 25,939 in other areas (0.8%)[5]
The Green Climate Fund approved a USD 39 million project aimed at improving water and food security in Iraq’s rural areas with climate-resilient agriculture.[6]
22,498 Lebanese arrivals were detected in Iraq since the escalation of hostilities in Lebanon through various points including the Al-Qaim border crossing (13,025) and airports in Baghdad (7,883) and Najaf (1,590).[7]
Lebanon
Since the beginning of October, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 768,353.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
-288,296 in Bekaa (37.5%)
-218,427 in North Lebanon (28.3%)
-175,498 in Beirut (22.8%)
-86,132 in South Lebanon (11.2%)[8]
According to the International Organization of Migration 2,593 people were killed and 12,119 injured since October 8, 2023. According to the organization, 833,391 people are internally displaced since 8 October 2023, of which 52% are female and 48% are male. Currently around 191,692 people are seeking refuge in 1,096 collective shelters.
1 billion USD in pledges were announced at Paris Conference on Lebanon to ease the humanitarian crisis and support its army.[9]
One month into the ongoing escalations, WFP has rapidly responded to the growing needs of the affected people through food and/or cash assistance to 402,000 people across shelters and communities.[10]
In the framework of B-FAST, the rapid intervention structure of the Belgian government, Belgium is sending medical equipment worth 100.000 euros and shelter solutions worth 80.000 euros to Lebanon.[11]
The Occupier is escalating its crimes against civilians and protected objects in Lebanon by using internationally prohibited weapons and highly-destructive bombs for several consecutive week since the start of its large-scale assault.[12]
Syria
In pursuit of food security and livelihood support for the most vulnerable families in northern Syria, Qatar Red Crescent Society (QRCS) has launched a new development project to help enhance livestock breeding and ensure self-dependence for widows with no breadwinners, by providing dairy cows/sheep, training, fodder, and veterinary services for three months. [13]
A total of approximately 440,000 people (Lebanese, Syrians and third-country nationals) are estimated to have crossed from Lebanon to Syria since the escalation of hostilities in Lebanon.[14]
The United Nations Development Program (UNDP) and Italy are pleased to announce the signing of a €3 million agreement aimed at supporting the sustainable reintegration of Iraqi nationals returning from the Al-Hol Camp in Northeast Syria, primarily women and children who fled the conflict.[15]
The UK has announced an additional £3 million to bolster aid to Syria as a response of the displaced from Lebanon.
To provide children and adolescents impacted by these vast and interconnected challenges with the safety and opportunity of a quality education, Education Cannot Wait (ECW), the global fund for education in emergencies and protracted crises within the United Nations, announced a significant new US$20 million Multi-Year Resilience Program grant to scale-up investments in Syria, crowd-in resources from partners including the Global Partnership for Education, and deliver on the promise of education for all.[16]
Cyprus
The European Court of Human Rights in Strasbourg issued a ruling condemning the Cypriot authorities for intercepting two Syrian refugees at sea and returning them to Lebanon without processing their asylum application. It ruled that Cyprus should pay 22,000 euros to each of the applicants for non-moral damages, and 4,700 euros jointly to cover legal costs.[17]
[1] Reporters Without Borders, Oct 22, 2024, https://rsf.org/en/egypt-four-sudanese-refugee-journalists-risk-expulsion-endangering-their-lives
[2] Egypt Today, Oct 23, 2024, https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/135584/300-refugees-to-relocate-from-Egypt-to-Portugal-through-deal
[3] OCHA, Oct 17, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/jordan-unhcr-operational-update-september-2024
[4] OCHA, Oct 9, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/ilo-launches-training-boost-market-driven-livelihood-solutions-refugees-and-host-communities-jordan
[5] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[6] OCHA, Oct 24, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/gcf-approves-39-million-support-fao-led-project-addressing-water-scarcity-and-climate-change-iraq-enar
[7] https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iraq-flash-update-16-update-displacement-lebanon-27-october-2024
[8] UNHCR, Oct 28, 2024, https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[9] The Arab Weekly, 25/10/2024https://thearabweekly.com/paris-conference-raises-1-billion-lebanon-amid-us-french-differences
[10] World Food Program, Oct 25, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/wfp-lebanon-emergency-response-situation-report-5-24-october-2024
[11] OCHA, Oct 24, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/b-fast-sends-more-humanitarian-material-lebanon
[12] OCHA, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/lebanon-using-internationally-prohibited-weapons-[israel]-escalates-its-crimes-against-civilians
[13] OCHA, Oct 27, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/qrcs-enhances-livelihoods-widows-northern-syria-enar
[14] OCHA, Oct 25, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/unhcr-syria-flash-update-18-response-displacement-lebanon-syria-reporting-period-24-september-25-october-2024
[15] OCHA, Oct 25, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/undp-and-italy-sign-agreement-sustainable-reintegration-returnees-al-hol-camp-enar
[16] OCHA, Oct 17, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/education-cannot-wait-announces-us20-million-multi-year-resilience-programme-catalytic-grant-syria-total-ecw-funding-tops-us77-million
[17]France 24, October 8, 2024 https://www.france24.com/ar/%D8%A3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A8%D8%A7/20241008-%D8%A7%D9%84%D9%85%D8%AD%D9%83%D9%85%D8%A9-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%88%D8%A8%D9%8A%D8%A9-%D9%84%D8%AD%D9%82%D9%88%D9%82-%D8%A7%D9%84%D8%A5%D9%86%D8%B3%D8%A7%D9%86-%D8%AA%D8%AF%D9%8A%D9%86-%D9%82%D8%A8%D8%B1%D8%B5-%D9%84%D8%A5%D8%B9%D8%A7%D8%AF%D8%AA%D9%87%D8%A7-%D9%84%D8%A7%D8%AC%D8%A6%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%B3%D9%88%D8%B1%D9%8A%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A7%D8%AB%D9%86%D9%8A%D9%86-%D8%A5%D9%84%D9%89-%D9%84%D8%A8%D9%86%D8%A7%D9%86