From Gaza to Lebanon
Report: September 2024
Lebanon’s South and other areas in Lebanon are being heavily bombed. Photo credit: Sky news.
Introduction
A series of historic events shook the Middle East during September sparking fears if an imminent large regional war. Things started with the declaration of the occupying entity of shifting the focus of the war from Gaza to South Lebanon. Consequently, targeted assassinations and terror attacks follow suit in Lebanon. As the prospects for peace are dwindling by the day, a large humanitarian catastrophe is only in its beginning. Unless tempers are winded down and triggers are stopped from being pulled, we are heading into a major catastrophe.
THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION
Egypt
The Ministry is making sure that Egypt is able to meet its wheat consumption happen should something out of the ordinary happens. Photo credit: alarabiya.net
As the situation in the Middle East continues to heat up, Egyptian authorities are scrambeling to make sure that the nation’s economy is able to adapt to the looming crisis. For this reason, Egyptian Ministry of Supply ran checks to make sure as sufficient wheat reserves. As such, its spoksman Ahmed Kamal released a statement claiming there is sufficient wheat to cover consumption for 6 months and vegetalble oil to cover 7.4 months. What aided Egypt in achieving such numbers is the growing private sector which has allowed the country the country to gain 34% more revenue from wheat alone. Moreover, the ministry claimed that Egypt imported 7.5 million tons of wheat from the beginning of the year until July 15, compared to 5.6 million tons in the same period last year, indicating increased preparedness. Since Egypt consumes approximately 20.6 million tons of wheat annually, of which it produces about 9 million tons annually, authorities are allowing the private sector to take the lead so that to make the country more self sufficient. Also on the matter, the minstry confirmed that prices of natural gas used in the production of subsidized bread are stable and will remain so due to the Prime Minister’s in 2020.
Concerning the rest of the economy, Dr. Gamal Aboul Fotouh, a member of the Parliament, said that the National Industry Strategy and sectoral economic reforms can be used in order to enhance the flexibility of the Egyptian economy, raise its ability to absorb external and internal shocks, and transform the course of the Egyptian economy into a productive economy that enjoys competitive advantages. The member of parliament indicated that the government also aims to expand green industries, assiststruggling factories, increase the volume of activity, increase production capacity, and providing technical support to factories by helping them in obtaining international compliance certificates. To assist Egypt in bolstering its economy, Saudi Arabia directed its Investment Fund to pump $5 billion into Egypt as a first step for future investments. Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly commented on the matter that Egypt will be undertaking changes to accomodate Saudi Arabia and other country’s plans to invest in Egypt. One step in that direction is to improve its electricity grid that would serve to better serve domestic needs of its population and entise countries to invest in Egypt.
Jordan
Jordan’s economy is only improving despite regional tensions. Photo credit: https://alqalahnews.net/
The Jordanian economy is witnessing continuous growth as it has been able to overcome many of the exceptional challenges facing the region. This is attributed to royal support and miticolous financial and monetary policies that helped stabilize the dinar exchange rate and absorb the inflationary effects, in addition to enhancing the Kingdom’s foreign currency reserves. Recently, positive indicators have emerged that strengthen the national economy, as the Kingdom's sovereign credit rating was raised by Standard & Poor's From B+ to B-, after Moody's took the same step four months ago. The unemployment rate in the Kingdom decreased during the second quarter of the current year, by 0.9 percentage points, compared to the second quarter of last year 2023, and remained stable compared to the first quarter of the current year 2024, to record 21.4 percent. Desptie the tension in the region, The movement of industrial exports was able to absorve the shock since the beginning of the current year, as it reached 6.037 billion dinars during the past eight months of the current year, compared to 6.095 billion dinars, during the same period last year, a slight decline of 0.9 percent, which is far better that data recorded by other countries. Also, the quantities of industrial production for the month of July of the current year increased by 1.29 percent compared to the previous month of June of the same year, an increase of 0.63 percent compared to the same month of last year 2023. Most importantly, the measures taken by the Central Bank contributed to maintaining monetary and financial stability in the Kingdom, the stability of the dinar’s exchange rate against the dollar, and building an unprecedented reserve of foreign currencies that currently amounts to about 20 billion dollars, sufficient to cover more than 8.5 months of the Kingdom’s imports of goods and services.
Iraq
the Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Al-Sudani. Photo credit: https://www.alarabiya.net/
According to the Iraqi Ministry of Finance, Iraq was able to maintain its credit rating and level of attaining foreign currencies. The ministry stated that in the latest report issued by the Standard & Poor's (S&P) credit rating agency, Iraq maintained its credit rating at B-/B. It added that the new classification reflects the policy of continuous economic and financial reforms pursued by the Ministry of Finance, in addition to maintaining the level of foreign currency reserves that exceed the external public debt and fulfilling other external financial obligations as a result of the stability of crude oil prices. The agency's report also indicated the possibility of improving Iraq's credit rating in the event of a high rate of economic growth, diversification of the state's oil and non-oil public financial revenues, an increase in the per capita income share of national income, and continued financial and economic policy reform measures. Capitalizing on such statements, the Iraqi Prime Minister, Muhammad Al-Sudani, confirmed that it is important for Iraq to take advantage of the stability and revenue from oil to further diversify the economy. Therefore, he noted that Development Road Project which is already in the works, will be of great value to the economy. He stated that the government approached the World Bank to begin implementing the development road from Basra to Mosul, noting that the agreement with international companies is a positive indicator that can lead to other international partnerships. He also stressed that Iraq possesses natural resources such as gas that have not been put to use in industries. He pointed out that Iraq will enter the gas market after investing in several fields.
Lebanon
The aftermath of the assassination. Photo credit: Al Mayadeen.
September 27 and 28 will be two days forever live in infamy within our memory as the two days that changed the Middle East. Hassan Nasrallah, the occupier’s top target in Lebanon, was assassinated sparking a tsunami of mixed emotions. Dubbed as a massive earthquake that will affect the region politically, economically, and security wise, attempting to measure the consequences is quite difficult. In fact, statistics are continuously being updated and modified as the occupier steps up military actions. For the time being, around a million are displaced from their homes, livelihoods destroyed, and swathes of land and residential areas have been flattened. Beirut’s non targeted streets swell with the displaced who have nowhere else to go and many of the shops have been turned into relief distribution spots. Nearly all humanitarian organizations have switched to emergency measures to tend to the immense humanitarian catastrophe the occupier is causing. Analysts fear that this phenomenon will reach new heights as the occupier is hell-bent on expanding military activity. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development announced that the war is is exacerbating the political and economic crisis in Lebanon and harming neighboring countries such as Jordan and Egypt as well. “We are watching with great concern the escalation of conflict in the region. The current conflict is witnessing heavy human losses, damaging the physical infrastructure in southern Lebanon, and exacerbating the already fragile macroeconomic and social situation in Lebanon.” The bank claimed. Lebanon, the crown jewel of the Middle East, will be a talking point of the whole world and developments within the country will have cataclysmic impacts that far exceeds its geographic land space. As such, protecting Lebanon and intervening to halt the mindless blood bath must be a top priority of any nation.
Palestine
A bulldozer destroys property which include electricity poles during a raid. Photo credit: al Mayadeen.
As Gaza’s economy remains to be all but completely decimated, the occupant is in the process of crippling the West Bank. The Occupant’s military has been dispatching bulldozers to destroy roads, sewage systems, and businesses during raid operations. Adding to the situation is the intensification of airstrikes targeting homes in the West Bank. In this way, they are creating psychological conditions that the West Bank will soon become like Gaza, to instill fear into people thus slowing down the economic cycle in the West Bank. According to Mayor Nidal Obeidi of Jenin, a city in the West Bank, approximately 70 percent of the city’s roads were either heavily damaged or completely destroyed during the raids. Moreover, several areas witnessed internet outages related to electricity, and phone services and water and sewage systems were completely cut off, leaving nearly 80 percent of Jenin’s population without access to running water. The Zionist occupation also continued to close the commercial side of the Karama crossing between Jordan and Palestine and hold it under its control. According to the Palestinian National Union of Transport Workers, about 300 trucks transporting goods from the crossing to parts of the West Bank daily have stopped working since the closure. AS such, heavy losses are incurred on Palestinian merchants whose goods are waiting in trucks or warehouses in Jordan, in addition to the shortage of some items in West Bank markets. Naturally, this will cause further pressure on the already deteriorating West Bank economy. Meanwhile, the occupier’s banks are still refusing to cooperate with the Palestinians as punishment for what is going on in Gaza. This is increasingly damaging the West Bank’s as it relies on remittance and several operations so that it can conduct its own affairs. With people losing their jobs, sources of income, businesses, and what diminished services they had, it won’t be surprising if things will escalate.
Syria
although the economy is still in bad shape, some improvements can be noticed. Photo credit: https://baladi-news.com/
Summer tourism on the Syrian coast has been greatly affected by the ongoing economic crisis in the country, especially in the city of Latakia. After the region was a popular destination for local and international tourists, it now suffers from a lack of visitors as a result of the collapse of the Syrian pound and the rise in fuel prices, which has made recreational activities out of reach for the majority of Syrians. According to a report published by the French newspaper Le Monde, private beaches and luxury hotels in coastal cities were crowded with tourists in previous years, including Syrian elites, local visitors, and Russians. However, economic challenges and the decline in citizens' purchasing power led to a clear decline in the number of visitors this year. According to the report, the deteriorating economic conditions indicate that many Syrian families were forced to reduce the length of their stay on the coast during the summer, as high costs made staying for long periods difficult. Salaries are no longer sufficient to cover the costs of accommodation, and the cost of one night in hotels exceeds an individual’s monthly salary several times. As a result, only a small number of Syrians, especially those with sources of income from abroad, can afford these high costs. In the coastal city of Tartous, the effects of the economic crisis are clearly visible, as beach facilities that were once crowded with visitors are struggling to survive. The manager of a restaurant reported that weekdays witnessed a noticeable decline in the number of visitors compared to last year, due to the rise in fuel prices, anticipating a greater deterioration in the coming season.
Although the general situation remains to be bleak, some positive developments. For instance, Egyptian firm Pioneers Holding Company (PHC), is laying the groundwork to resume operations in Syria in the financial brokerage sector, after 12 years of shutting down. Moreover, The Pakistani government inaugurated this month its honorary consulate in Homs appointing Syrian businessman Mohammad Labib Al-Ikwan, Vice Chairman of the Federation of Syrian Chambers of Industry, as their honorary consul. This diplomatic move has been followed by the visit of a Pakistani business delegation to Damascus, Aleppo, and Homs. On the bilateral economic relationship front, Syria and Russia have stepped up their efforts to strengthen economic and security ties, from the announcement of the reactivation of a direct shipping line between Syrian and Russian ports, to the visits of high-ranking officials in Moscow and Damascus to discuss security and oil developments, to the recent establishment of Russian companies in Syria in the renewable energy, security and pharmaceutical sectors. As for the public sector, the Minister of Electricity, Ghassan Al-Zamel, announced in a press conference after a cabinet meeting on September 6 a draft legislation to establish a new regulatory body called the Electricity and Renewable Energy Regulatory Authority to find solutions for the country’s energy sector.
Cyprus
DBRS Ratings GmbH (Morningstar DBRS) confirmed the Republic of Cyprus' Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency - Issuer Ratings at BBB (high). Photo credit: moderndiplomacy.eu
To reaffirm Cyprus’s success concerning its economy, President Christodoulides highlighted the recent scoring made by the Canadian-based rating agency Morningstar DBRS which gave Cyprus a BBB (high) score and raised its outlook from “Stable” to “Positive.” He mentioned that it demonstrates Cyprus’s approach of maintaining a serious and responsible economic strategy that benefits society as a whole, avoiding populist and reckless measures. From its end, the agency confirmed that the public debt metrics are likely to continue to improve. Moreover, the credit ratings of Cyprus remain constrained by the small size of its service-driven economy, rendering it vulnerable to external shocks. As for the European Commission, it also made a positive remark claiming general government debt to decline further to 65.4% of GDP in 2025 on the back of strong growth and fiscal surpluses and that growth is likely to continue to benefit from robust private consumption, rising service exports and strong construction investment. Another positive development recorded by Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, responsible for publishing high-quality Europe-wide statistics and indicators, annual inflation rate in Cyprus dropped to 2.2% in Cyprus compared to July 2024 from 2.4%. Focus Economics, a go-to provider for easy-to-use macroeconomic intelligence, also had something to say about the Cypriot economy. According to this well-regarded source, private consumption, public spending, fixed investment and exports, all have improved leading to the GDP growth picking up to 3.6% in the second quarter from 3.5% in the first quarter, marking the fastest increase since Q3 2022. On the external front, Focus Economic also that exports of goods and services increased 4.1% on an annual basis in the second quarter, which was above the first quarter’s 1.6% expansion.
2. THE HUMANITARIAN SITUATION
Egypt
· Egypt’s Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty, during a meeting with Filippo Grandi, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and expressed hope to strengthen this partnership to provide further support to refugees and asylum-seekers, alleviate the burden on Egypt, and support the host community.[1]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 624,499 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of September.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for the beginning of September, are distributed as follows:
186,235 in Amman Governorate (29.8%)
160,767 in Mafraq Governorate (25.7%)
122,240 in Irbid Governorate (19.6%)
91,943 in Zarqa Governorate (14.7%)
15,967 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
12,455 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
8,104 in Jarash Governorate (1.3%)
8,011 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
7,964 in Maan Governorate (1.3%)
5,335 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
3,654 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
1,316 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
508 in other (0.1%)
· The Jordanian government has determined its funding needs for the Syrian crisis response plan for the current year to be around $2 billion, which is the “lowest amount” determined for funding the plan since its launch in 2015, amidst a decline in international support for funding the plan.[2]
· According to a recent UNHCR survey poverty among refugees in Jordan has increased from 57% in 2021 to 67%.[3]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 324,237 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of September, are distributed as follows:
119,726 in Erbil (51.3%)
39,658 in Dahuk (17.2%)
31,712 in Sulaymaniyah (13.6%)
2,313 in Ninewa (1%)
25,833 in Baghdad (11.1%)
2,758 in Kerbala (1.2%)
2,367 in Najaf (1%)
2,772 in Kirkuk (1.2%)
1,693 in Anbar (0.7%)
25,939 in other areas (0.8%)[4]
· Through the partnership between the Government of Japan and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), over 4,000 farmers in Diyala can now access more than 25,000 seedlings annually, supported by modern irrigation techniques and solar energy.[5]
· As part of ongoing efforts to improve health services for children, Kurdistan Save the Children Organization (KSC) has successfully renovated the Helena Physiotherapy Center in Erbil. the renovation aims to enhance the quality of physiotherapy training and supply essential resources for the center while serving 26,256 children in need of care.[6]
Lebanon
{UNHCR Lebanon did not update its figures for the month of August}
Since the beginning of July, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 774,697.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
292,348 in Bekaa (37.7%)
219,556 in North Lebanon (28.3%)
175,815 in Beirut (22.7%)
86,978 in South Lebanon (11.2%)[7]
· Since 7 October 2023, Action on Armed Violence has recorded 4,285 casualties as a result of explosive violence in Lebanon, with the Occupier accounting for 99% of all casualties recorded. The total includes at least 28 women and 60 children. 96% of casualties recorded have occurred in populated areas, specifically, 87% (3,710) occurred across urban residential areas.[8]
· Medicans Sans Frontier expanded its activities in response to the increased bombing of Lebanon, by providing general and mental health care and by distributing non-food items, including mattresses and hygiene kits, to shelters.[9]
· The international development agency Christian Aid says its partners responding on the ground fear the huge number of civilians killed in Gaza will be replicated in southern Lebanon.[10]
· After Lebanon suffers its deadliest day in decades, Islamic Relief has launched a £10 million emergency appeal to support people affected by an escalation in Israeli attacks.[11]
· In response to the ongoing developments and the escalating conflict in Lebanon, UNRWA announces the opening of two of its Designated Emergency Shelters (DESs) for displaced individuals: Toubas School in Nahr El Bared in the north and Siblin Training Centre in the south.[12]
· Oxfam and its partners are supporting internally displaced people in shelters in Beirut, Mount Lebanon and North Lebanon with clean water and sanitation, emergency cash, food, and hygiene and menstrual hygiene kits.[13]
Syria
· The Qatar Fund for Development (QFFD) and the UNRWA have signed a US$ 7 million agreement to provide crucial support for Palestine Refugees in Syria.[14]
· In response to the difficult humanitarian conditions experienced by the population of northwestern Syria, Qatar Red Crescent Society (QRCS) supported the Rehabilitation and Prosthetic Implants Center in Idlib, to provide specialized services for persons with disability who have poor access to medical services due to displacement and inadequate local health care facilities.[15]
· The SRTF announced the approval of two new interventions under the Agriculture and Electricity and Water and Sanitation (WASH) sectors in Northeast Syria. With a budget of around EUR 2.23 million, this intervention is expected to directly benefit 1,000 farmers in 25 Farmers’ Cooperatives, by planting 200 hectares of land.[16]
· The UN Syria Commission of Inquiry warned that fighting has intensified along multiple frontlines of the Syrian conflict, with the region gripped by fear of a large-scale war.[17]
Cyprus
· According to Human Rights Watch, the Lebanese Armed Forces and Cypriot authorities worked together to keep refugees from reaching Europe, then deport them to danger in Syria.[18]
[1] Daily News Egypt, Sept 23, 2024, https://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2024/09/23/egypt-calls-for-more-international-support-for-refugees-amidst-growing-influx/
[2] Enab Baladi, https://english.enabbaladi.net/archives/2024/08/jordan-requests-2-billion-to-fund-syrian-crisis-response-plan/
[3] OCHA, Sep 18, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/socio-economic-survey-refugees-jordan-2024-glance
[4] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[5] OCHA, Sept 24, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/4000-farmers-diyala-empowered-access-25000-seedlings-annually-through-modern-irrigation-and-solar-energy-solutions-enar
[6] OCHA, Sept 1, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/erbil-ksc-completes-renovation-helena-physiotherapy-center
[7] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[8] OCHA, Sept 21, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/least-4285-casualties-recorded-lebanon-7-october-2023
[9] OCHA, Sep 24, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/msf-responds-israeli-bombing-lebanon
[10] OCHA, Sept 24, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/christian-aid-says-lebanese-people-face-same-fate-gaza-civilians
[11] OCHA, Sept 24, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/islamic-relief-launches-ps10m-emergency-appeal-lebanon
[12] OCHA, Sept 24, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/unrwa-opens-two-designated-emergency-shelters-displaced
[13] OCHA, Sept 25, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/oxfam-responds-lebanon-crisis
[14] OCHA, Sept 22, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/qatar-fund-development-signs-us-7-million-agreement-support-unrwa-emergency-appeal-syria-enar
[15] OCHA, Sept 18, 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/qrcs-supports-rehabilitation-prosthetic-implants-center-northern-syria-enar
[16] https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/empowering-northeast-syria-srtf-approves-eu496m-interventions-boost-agriculture-wash-electricity-sectors
[17] OCHA, Sept 10 2024, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/un-commission-warns-syrian-war-intensifying-amid-continuing-patterns-war-crimes-and-fear-large-scale-regional-conflict-enar
[18]HRW, September 4, 2024, https://www.hrw.org/news/2024/09/04/lebanon/cyprus-refugees-pulled-back-expelled-then-forced-back-syria