Report: April 2023

Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (L) and Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud (R) exchange documents after signing a memorandum of understanding in Beijing, China on April 06, 2023

Despite the global economic crisis and the years of proxy wars in Syria, two formally competing major players in the area are pursuing dialogue and mutual cooperation. As such, Saudi Arabia and Iran’s coming together is leading to positive implications such as the re-induction of Syria into the Arab World. With this massive shift in policy from both of their ends, the region is moving towards greater economic cooperation and harmony.

1- The Socio-Economic Situation

Egypt

International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva has said the fund is preparing its first review of its $3bn rescue package for Egypt [File: Elizabeth Frantz/Reuters]

According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 515,852
Deaths: 24,819
As of 18 March 2023, a total of 108,156,977 vaccine doses have been administered.

Over the past years Egypt has been trying to court the IMF to receive bailout funds. So far, it has succeeded in winning the approval of the IMF to lend it the money. However, as the global economy is shrinking and international organizations are unable to invest large sums of money in countries in need, Egypt is finding it difficult to attain a proposed $3bn rescue package. Unfortunately for Egypt, the reasons for that are quite similar to that of Lebanon; the IMF also requires the government to enact reforms. This would include the privatization of certain state assets and allowing the flexibility in the Egyptian pound. The reason behind this is the determination of the IMF to protect Egypt’s economy from external shocks, create opportunities for growth, and create more foreign currencies. Similarly, countries such as Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates have also offered support by declaring their intention to invest billions of dollars in the Egyptian economy. However, these countries are too waiting for these reforms to take place. So far, the Egyptian government has pledged that it will enact the reforms, yet they remain to be seen. Earlier this month for instance, Sisi made a visit to Saudi Arabia and convened with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, in a bid to drum up support. However, the kingdom publicly claimed it is no longer interested in giving unconditional aid.

Although the enactment of reforms are still to be seen, President Sisi, aside from the Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, convened with other leaders to push forward his country’s portfolio. Another step in that direction, the General Authority for Investment and Free Zones (GAFI) signed an MOU with TAG Global to cooperate on developing the mechanism of founding regional bureaus in Egypt, investment promotion, enhancement of the investment climate, including the drafting of legal amendments, and digital transformation. According to GAFI Chairman Hossam Heiba, the government is aiming to attract to Egyptian business hubs, particularly the business park at the New Administrative Capital, as part of its plan to house the regional headquarters of global companies. Such a step forward can entice foreign investors to move into Egypt, especially when laws and regulations are modeled to suit companies. For the time being, this a positive move in attracting foreign currency to the country while providing employment opportunities for Egypt’s citizens.

Jordan

According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 1,746,997
Deaths: 14,122
As of 20 August 2022, a total of 10,057,975 vaccine doses have been administered.

The Jordanian economy continues to improve gradually as the world prepares for a global recession in 2023. The country has succeeded in increasing tourism revenue by 88.4% in the first quarter of 2023, when compared to last year’s data. This is due to an unparalleled surge in the number of tourists coming to the country, with more than 1.47 million sightseers visiting during the first quarter. This record number represents a 90.7% increase compare with the 774,111 tourists who visited during the same period last year. Jordan’s central bank data also showed a 68.4 percent spike in Jordanians’ spending on tourism during that period, reaching $422.3 million. This means that Jordanians have better purchasing power than last year as socioeconomic conditions continue to improve within the country. Moreover, new investment projects, which have been approved by the World Bank, are being launched to promote job creation and business opportunities for women and to help improve the efficiency of Jordan’s electricity sector with an emphasis on strengthening sector governance. This move is part of Jordan’s 10-year Economic Modernization Vision to become a regional hub for green entrepreneurship and innovation and to attract investment. As for country’s economic relations with other countries, the Jordanian government have signed with the Iraqi government, a cooperation protocol in the field of attracting direct investment. The protocol aims to enhance joint cooperation in the field of stimulating direct investment in the available investment sectors and activities, to achieve mutual benefit. Moreover, Jordan has recorded a 6.5% growth in its trade relations with Qatar, due to an increase in products purchased by Qatar from Jordan.

Iraq

According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 2,465,545
Deaths: 25,375
As of 1 January 2023, a total of 19,557,364 vaccine doses have been administered.

Despite the dollar crisis which has highlighted vulnerability in its oil-based economy, there are efforts underway, just like in Egypt, to modernize its bureacratic system so that to attract investments. For this reason, the Prime Minister of Iraq, Mr. Mohammed S. Al-Sudani, met with members of the Parliamentary Investment and Development Committee to discuss laws and legislations that support the investment sector in the country. Already, there are plans underway to complete the Grand Faw Port and the Iraq-Turkiye railway line (Dry Canal project) which are pioneering investment projects that could change the economic map of the region. As such, rules and regulations have to be set in place to protect the implementation of these projects and their sustainability for the long run. Other projects which are about to significantly impact Iraq, is the investment plan, by the French major and the Iraqi government, to boost electricity production in the country. With an investment of 10 billion dollars, Iraq will significantly boost electricity production to meet the growing needs of its population. Another matter Iraq is preparing for is the growing of ties between it and GCC countries, and the decrease of friction between Iran and Saudi Arabia. The whole harmonization of relationships is expected to attract more investment to the country. Also, Japan, through its ambassador Futoshi Matsumoto, is aiming to increase the investment of Japanese private sector in Iraq. In the end, everything points towards a bright future in Iraq, as many seem to be enjoying the era of stability (or comparative stabiltiy) the region is passing through.

Currently the Lebanese Pound has stabilized at 100,000 LBP to the dollar. Photo credit: LBC

Lebanon

According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 1,233,817
Deaths: 10,856
As of 21 December 2022, a total of 5,814,699 vaccine doses have been administered.

During this month, the Lebanese currency was able to stabilize at an apporximate 100,000 LBP to the USD. This is due to the initiative undertaken by the governor of the country’s bank Riad Salameh; he resumed the functioning of the “Sayrafa” plaftform which has put a lid on street protests. However, many assume this is a temporary fix which will only keep people quite for a while. After all, the “Sayrafa” platform has been halted several times before and the Lebanese currency had depreciated beyond the 100,000 LBP baseline. The following questions therefore comes to mind: How long will the LBP remain relatively stable? How long till the central bank’s dollar reserves become totally depleted? The answer might be sooner than anybody might assume. After all, the Lebanese Parliament has approved a bill to extend the mandate of municipal councils for up to one year, postponing their elections due to a lack of funds. Comically, it is estimated that the whole municipal elections would cost only 12M USD. As for the country’s private sector most large companies have either downsized their operations and staff, or have simply withdrown from the country. Concerning the country’s SME’s (Small Medium Enterprises), they have benefitted from the stabilization of the currency to be able to replenish the needed merchandise/ supplies so that their businesses can function. However, many SME’s had previously shut down due to the continous depreciation of the currency.

Despite the negativity resonating in Lebanon, there appears to be some positive developments. It is expected during this year’s summer period, about 2 million tourists will be coming to Lebanon. Moreover, it is rumored that countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE will lift travel bans to Lebanon. This spells good news for the country’s economy in general and to the country’s tourism sector and SME’s in particular. Another positive development is the decision of Eli Lilly and Co, a major pharmaceutical company, to invest another $1.6 billion in its Lebanon facility, bringing the pharmaceutical giant’s total investment here to $3.7 billion. It will be the largest investment in a single site in Lilly’s 147-year history.

Palestine

Israeli troops waltz in Palestinian neighborhoods unabated. Photo credit: Arab News

According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 703,228
Deaths: 5,708
As of 17 October 2022, a total of 3,748,571 vaccine doses have been administered

Despite this year’s April being a holy period for Christians and Muslims in Palestine, the Israeli occupation continued to crackdown on worshippers and casual civilians. For instance, during the Holy Saturday of the 15th of April, Israeli forces barred the entry of Christian tourists into the Church of the Resurrection in Jerusalem. Some were even attacked and detained by the Israeli forces. Moreover, during the Muslim Eid holiday, the assaults on religious sites, daily incursions into Palestinian areas, arrests, and the operation of military checkpoints to restrict the freedom of movement of Palestinian citizens, only increased. So when considering such blatant actions by Israel during such holy periods, it is understandable that the occupation will not seize its economic, political, and military hegemony over Palestinians. Mahmoud Abbas, the President of Palestine, has continuously talked about such an issue with foreign powers, including the US. Unfortunately, not much has been done in guaranteeing partial sovereign rights of Palestinians. Instead, only incremental cash handouts to certain sectors have been distributed as a band aid to gaping wound. As for Israel, it continues to treat Palestinians with impunity while the world simply watches. Day by day, the occupation is infringing on the rights of more Palestinians as their territories continue to be illegally usurped.

Syria

According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 57,423
Deaths: 3,163
As of 15 January 2023, a total of 4,971,203 vaccine doses have been administered

The month started with a cabinet reshuffle ordered by President Bashar Al-Assad as socioeconomic conditions remain to be dire. The intention of this move is to attempt a change of approach with how ministries are being managed. Hopefully, this might lead to the desired change, especially during a time when 170,000 Syrians have lost their jobs due to the earthquake. Luckily, the restoration of ties with Arab countries might lead to inbound investments to the Syrian republic. Already, President Bashar Al-Assad conducted visits to the UAE and Oman, and the Syrian FM Faysal Meqdad visited Cairo. Also, there are reports that Saudi Arabia and Syria would soon reopen their consulates in their respective capitals. Another phenomenon worth taking into consideration is the banking sector; the Central Bank of Syria has authorized local banks to provide loans in foreign currency in an attempt to encourage lending and investment. Although its scope is relatively limited and only affects export-generating companies, the decision encourages dollarization, that is, a shift towards economic transactions paid and earned in dollars, which is something that Syrian authorities have tried to avoid until now. However, seeing that the region is heading towards an added economic cooperation using foreign currencies like the dollar can have positive implications.

Syria might indeed be heading in the right direction, especially when ties are normalizing with neighboring Arab counties. However, one major problem is hindering the government from making further successes: the narcotics problem. So far Syria has been used as a staging area to distribute drugs to other parts of the world and several Syrian business men have been sanctioned. Unfortunately, some of the businessmen are either part of the Syrian government or have ties with it. As for the sanctioning organizations, they include the European Union which directly blamed the Syrian government and members of the armed forces for conducting “large-scale drug trafficking operations” that included the distribution of drugs such as the deadly captagon. As such, when news similar to these spread out, not many companies from the Western world would be interested in increasing their investment or contributions within Syria.

Cyprus

According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:

Confirmed cases: 653,667
Deaths: 1,341
As of 4 February 2023, a total of 1,858,220 vaccine doses have been administered.

As the Ukraine-Russia war continues to escalate, sanctions on the Russian companies are likewise increasing. This lead many to speculate whether Cyprus, who has partly relied on Russian investments, will be affected. However, Central Bank of Cyprus Governor Constantinos Herodotou assured that the sanctions against Russian individuals and companies have not had a significant impact on the Cypriot economy so far. He insisted the bank has been abiding by all sanctions and the rule of law as way to maintain the country’s image. In fact, 4,000 customers who have a Russian passport and are non-residents of EU countries have had their accounts closed by the central bank. The purpose of this move is to stop any individuals or entities who, according to the U.S. and Britain, have been helping Russian oligarchs circumvent sanctions. According to Constantinos, thee authorities have closed 43,000 shell companies and 123,000 "suspicious" bank accounts. As a result, only 2.2 percent of all bank deposits on the island currently belong to Russians. Despite this, the economy has not been impacted and is projected to grow by 2.5%, as mentioned by the IMF. What’s more unemployment and inflation are expected to decrease; on unemployment, the IMF projects a rate of 6.5 per cent for this year, and 6.2 per cent for 2024 and Inflation in 2023 will come down to 3.9 per cent from the 8.1 per cent recorded last year, further falling to 2.5 per cent in 2024. As such, Cyprus will not be affected by the war in Eastern Europe thanks to country’s resilient economy and the previous reform process it went through.

2- The Humanitarian Situation

Egypt

With violence raging in the Sudanese capital Khartoum, thousands of people have rushed to the Egypt-Sudan border crossing after a risky ride with high-priced bus tickets and long checkpoint waits.[1]

Jordan

The UNHCR states that there are currently 660,646 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of April.

The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for April, are distributed as follows:

196,824 in Amman Governorate (29.8 %)
168,950 in Mafraq Governorate (25.6%)
129,666 in Irbid Governorate (19.6%)
97,870 in Zarqa Governorate (14.8%)
17,251 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
13,117 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
8,638 in Jarash Governorate (1.3%)
8,429 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
8,258 in Maan Governorate (1.3%)
5,834 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
3,859 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
1,473 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)

-UNRWA Jordan released a statement of the estimated budget for the upcoming 6 years. It stated that all of its activities will require 1.282 billion dollars.[2]

-The Jordanian Civil Status and Passports Department (CSPD), Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC) and Seefar signed an agreement to improve access to civil documentation for Jordanians and refugees in the Kingdom.[3]

Iraq

The UNHCR states that there are currently 261,929 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.

The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of April, are distributed as follows:

127,462 in Erbil (48.7%)
83,755 in Dahuk (32.0%)
34,415 in Sulaymaniyah (13.1%)
1,504 in Anbar (0.6%)
14,793 in other areas (5.7%)[4]

-The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) announced that due to funding shortfalls it will not be able to continue providing monthly food assistance to 137,000 Internally Displaced People (IDPs) who were being served by WFP in 27 camps.[5]

-The Iraqi Red Crescent hosts a workshop on voluntary return and reintegration for immigrants in order to assist their integration back into society.[6]

Lebanon

Since April, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 805,326.

Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:

312,754 in Bekaa (38.8%)
224,541 in North Lebanon (27.9%)
178,651 in Beirut (22.2%)
89,380 in South Lebanon (11.1%)[7]

-Amnesty International condemned the Lebanese government’s decision to forcibly deport refugees back to Syria.[8]

-Amid the deportations, Syrian refugees organized strikes in protest of the deportations. In response, the army was deployed to maintain their security.[9]

-Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) released a statement gravely concerned about the health risks posed by the lack of access to clean water and dire sanitation conditions in Hermel, Masharieh Al Qaa, and Arsal in northeastern Lebanon.[10]

-Lebanon's Ministry of Social Affairs (MOSA), in partnership with the European Union (EU), UNICEF and the International Labour Organization (ILO), launched the country's National Disability Allowance (NDA). The allowance is a social grant that will provide a direct income support to persons with disabilities living in the country.

Syria

-The WHO Regional Office for the Eastern Mediterranean has undertaken a surge mission to support the emergency response in north-west Syria in the aftermath of the devastating earthquakes and close to 1300 aftershocks that struck south-east Türkiye and north-west Syria. [11]

-Qatar Fund for Development has signed an agreement with the Turkish Presidency of Disaster and Emergency Management (AFAD) to support the project of establishing an integrated city in northern Syria. [12]

-A Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) delegation and a cargo plane, containing 30,000 units of baby milk, 234 family tents and three surgical kits, arrived in Damascus, as a donation to the Syrian Arab Red Crescent (SARC).[13]

-The Syrian Arab Red Crescent and the Iraqi Red Crescent Society have agreed to work together to provide bread to Aleppo residents who have been affected by the earthquake. The agreement included the distribution of bread at the rate of (500) bundles per day for a month to the affected families.[14]

-Qatar Charity (QC) continues to distribute Iftar meals to orphans, the earthquake victims, and those most in need in camps in northern Syria. This comes as part of Qatar Charity’s ‘Ramadan: Leave Your Mark’ campaign and within the framework of the ‘Feed the Fasting’ project.[15]

Cyprus

-The Cypriot authorities plan evicted about 3,000 Ukrainian refugees currently living in hotels in Cyprus. They are attempting to preserve the tourism sector for the summer. [16]

-Health Minister Popi Kanari took part in a World Health Organization (WTO) conference in Larnaca aimed at finding ways to improve the healthcare conditions for migrants and refugees.[17]

[1]Middle East Eye, April 25, 2023, https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/sudan-turmoil-khartoum-violence-worsens-refugees-flock-egypt

[2] Addustour, April 25, 2023, https://www.addustour.com/articles/1342895

[3] OCHA, April 25, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/nrc-seefar-and-cpsd-work-ease-access-civil-documents-jordanians-refugees

[4] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5

[5] OCHA, March 21, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/funding-shortfall-forces-wfp-iraq-reduce-life-saving-food-and-cash-assistance-displaced-iraqis-and-syrian-refugees-enar

[6] OCHA, April 25, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/iraqi-red-crescent-hosts-workshop-voluntary-return-and-reintegration-immigrants-order-assist-their-integration-back-society-enar

[7] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71

[8] Amnesty, April 23, 2023, https://www.amnesty.org/en/latest/news/2023/04/lebanon-authorities-must-halt-unlawful-deportations-of-syrian-refugees/

[9] Arab News, April 26, 2023, https://www.arabnews.com/node/2293366/middle-east

[10] OCHA, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/inadequate-water-and-sanitation-services-northern-east-lebanon-heightening-risk-waterborne-diseases-and-skin-infections-enar

[11]OCHA, April 20, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/who-provides-support-north-west-syria-aftermath-earthquake

[12] OCHA, April 19, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/qatar-fund-development-establishing-integrated-city-northern-syria-cooperation-afad

[13] OCHA, April 18, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/msf-delegation-damascus-deliver-additional-relief-aid-enar

[14] OCHA, April 15, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/help-those-aleppo-devastated-earthquake-iraqi-red-crescent-and-syrian-arab-red-crescent-signed-partnership-agreement-enar

[15] OCHA, April 11, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/qatar-charity-provides-food-earthquake-affected-people-camps-northern-syria

[16] https://www.schengenvisainfo.com/news/cyprus-to-evict-over-3000-ukrainian-refugees-from-hotels-ahead-of-summer/

[17] Cyprus Mail, April 25, 2023, https://cyprus-mail.com/2023/04/25/who-meeting-on-migration-and-refugee-health-took-place-in-larnaca/

A Resurgent Middle East

Report: April 2023

1- The Socio-Economic Situation

Egypt

Jordan

Iraq

Lebanon

Palestine

Syria

Cyprus

2- The Humanitarian Situation

Egypt

Jordan

Iraq

Lebanon

Syria

Cyprus

United in Prayer - The Fifth Ecumenical Council in Constantinople (553)

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