A Grand Reset
Report: March, 2023
The detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran has the potential to reshape relations across a region characterized by turbulence for decades [File: China Daily via Reuters]
With China as mediator, the rapprochement between Iran and Saudi Arabia will have positive implications on the stability of the Middle East. During an era of global economic decline and mounting societal pressure, such move can bring opposing visions together to reshape the political and socioeconomic landscape of the region. Countries such as Iraq and Lebanon, which are home to several distinct political parties, should witness tangible change in terms of inter-party dialogue.
THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC SITUATION
Egypt
Billboards with images of Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi that read 'Our common goal is Egypt: our dream and hope'. AP
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 515,852
Deaths: 24,819
As of 18 March 2023, a total of 108,156,977 vaccine doses have been administered.
Similar to what’s happening in Lebanon, Egypt is witnessing a currency crisis caused by a dollar-shortage and an inflation in the country. Some analysts also pinpoint that the unflexible foreign exchange regime is also responsible for the currency issue; it is prolonging the dollar shortage in Egypt, allowing a backlog of imports estimated at about $4 billion to grow even bigger and paralyse local industries dependent on foreign materials. With year on year inflation significantly breaking all records in 2023, the Central Bank of Egypt is now expected to significantly increase interest rates. The increase will be also justified by the 10% increase in patrol prices. According to Japanese Bank MUFG, the Egyptian pound should stop devaluating even though inflation would be peaking in the third quarter of 2023. Unfortunately, this is not the case when it comes to its debt as the country’s debt burden has been worsening. With the government forecasting it at 93 per cent of gross domestic product by the end of the current financial year on June 30, Egypt is awaiting a more painful headache.
Although the situation appears to be uneasy for the Egyptian economy, leaders have been implementing a creative set of measures to pull the country out of the current situation. As such, throughout the past year, Egypt has been trying to shore up dollar reserves by dimming street lights to make more gas available for export. Also it has started charging tourists in dollars or euros for their train rides. The government even started offering citizenships on the condition that the candidate brings in dollars into the country. Yet many analysts still see a major problem preventing Egypt from making any noticable advances: its state involvement in the economy. This highly bureaucratic apparatus has been impeding progress towards increased privatization- an element which is drastically needed to evolve the economy. Egypt has made promises to scale down its involvement in the free-market, however it has witnessed its military apparatus clamping down even further on businesses.
Jordan
Minister of Investment, Kholoud Saqqaf affirmed the Kingdom is an "attractive and incubating" investment environment for businesspeople. Photo credit: Ammon News.
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,746,997
Deaths: 14,122
As of 20 August 2022, a total of 10,057,975 vaccine doses have been administered.
Despite local and regional challenges, the Jordanian economy is continuing to recover by making reforms that have allowed it to be more resilient. According to Governor of the Central Bank of Jordan (CBJ) Adel Sharkas, the economy has been granted greater flexibility making it more efficient. What made the economy extra robust is the strong banking system that is being and its ability to deal with various developments, as well as its increasing role in the national economy. Its sound management and level of governance have made the country capable of borrowing from external markets with a high ability to access global financial markets and foreign financing sources at interest rates lower than many countries in the region, and for long periods. This reflects investor confidence in the stability of the Jordanian economy in the medium and long term. Moreover, Jordan is an attractive business environment for companies and business people. This is due to the fact that government's key reforms focused on enhancing Jordan's investment position by primarily endorsing the new Investment Environment Law and its bylaw, and establishing Ministry of Investment. Currently, Jordan is seeking to improve bilateral relations with Australia from one end and Ireland from the other. As such, it is hoping to diversify its inbound investment portfolio in an attempt to attract more companies from first world nations. By doing so, it ensures the viability of its business environment for other countries to the same.
Iraq
Iraqi protesters demonstrate against the dinar's slide in value against the U.S. dollar, near the central bank in Baghdad, Iraq January 25, 2023. (Reuters)
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 2,465,545
Deaths: 25,375
As of 1 January 2023, a total of 19,557,364 vaccine doses have been administered.
In line with its adherance to the OPEC+ quota production cuts, Iraq ordered companies operating in the south of the country, where some of the biggest fields are present, to cut down oil production. Naturally, this will entail lower oil export and thus less revenues. However, Iraq’s Oil Ministry did emphasize that there are plans set aside for a boost in production if OPEC green lights so. In the mean time, Iraq is continuing to work on upgrading its oil sector through negotiations with French oil major TotalEnergies. So far, no agreement has been reached between the two sides, yet a $27 billion energy deal is being discussed. Hopefully, the Iraqi government and representatives from Total energies can agree on how profits are shared. Another step the government has taken to enhance the oil sector, is by inviting investors to build seven oil refineries in various parts of the country. Already, Iraq has opened bids for 3 refineries, and this move is aimed to boost Iraq’s refining output capacity.
As for Iraq’s fiscal stablity, the Iraqi government declared that a three-year budget has been finalized to back up the nation’s oil economy. After several budgetary delays, the bill was finally sent to parliament for approval and will include financial aid to 600,000 families in an attempt to lower poverty rates. The three-year fiscal framework will provide more certainty on what actions Iraq ought to do to improve the lives of its citizens.
Lebanon
A picture of Beirut’s airport. Photo credit: aawsat.
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 1,233,817
Deaths: 10,856
As of 21 December 2022, a total of 5,814,699 vaccine doses have been administered.
During this month, the Lebanese currency depreciated to new lows. However, what’s alarming is the pace at which it is losing its value; between February and March the dollar increased from a 80,000 to a minimum of 130,000. This means that there is at least 50,000 increase which is considered extremely high when comparing it to past months. Meanwhile, all people’s savings remain locked up in banks due to the dollar shortage crisis. Since last year, the country has had no president and only a caretaker government, amid persistent deadlock between rival alliances in parliament. As for the fate of the promised 3 billion dollar loan, it remains to be seen. So far, the IMF has refused to lend Lebanon any money due to the failure of Lebanese leaders to inact reforms that would curb corruption. Instead, leaders have continued to let Lebanon into a severe economic depression never seen in the entire country’s history. Even the country’s Economy Minister Amin Salam admitted that his ministry is unable to do anything to alleviate the dangers of the situation. He further noted that the difficulty rises from the inability of the country to produce sufficient exports that would allow it to gain remittances. As such, there is no country in the world as Lebanon that exports 90% of its necessities from abroad thus rendering it vulnerable.
Although Lebanon is in a dire situation, there are still a few instances of positive developments that are worth mentioning. For instance, a new terminal at Beirut’s Rafik Hariri International Airport worth 122 million USD, will be constructed by a leading Irish airport company. Caretaker Minister of Public Works and Transport Ali Hamie claimed that this terminal will bring in private sector investments and will handle 3.5 million passengers annually when operations begin in 2027. The project will also create 500 direct jobs and 2,000 related jobs. Another instance is the launch of a $20 million Solar & Renewable Energy Fund by the US embassy in Beirut. According to the U.S. Ambassador to Lebanon Shea, this move is one attempt to assist Lebanon in its energy crisis. Hopefully, this won’t be the last investment in the field of energy for the benefit of Lebanon.
Palestine
Israel continues to dominate Palestine’s socioeconomic life. Things, in the period to come, might get worse. Photo credit: El Intifada
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 703,228
Deaths: 5,708
As of 17 October 2022, a total of 3,748,571 vaccine doses have been administered
Between closing down Palestinian radio stations and limiting access to the Al-Aqsa mosque during Ramadan, Israel continued to clamp down on Palestinians. Even the word “Palestinians” has been lately rejected by an Israeli Minister claiming that there is no such a thing as a Palestinian people. To demonstrate its disregard to the idea of a Palestinian entity, it recently repealed a law that sanctioned West Bank settlements. Nevertheless, the soothing of ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia, which are both nations that support the Palestinian cause, will definitely have an impact on Palestine. First and foremost, it will allow the two nations to team up to tackle core issues that Palestinians cannot handle on their own. Also, it will lead to greater economic cooperation and the setting up of investment projects on Palestinian soil. Unfortunately, the most right-wing government in history has taken power in Israel and even the most peaceful demonstrations have been blocked by the authorities. It is as though there is a general consensus within Israel to expedite its plans for territorial and ideological hegemony so that to delete the last shred of hope for a Two-State solution.
Syria
A poster with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is pictured on the wall during the country's presidential elections in Douma, Syria, May 26, 2021 . photo credit: Sputnik
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 57,423
Deaths: 3,163
As of 15 January 2023, a total of 4,971,203 vaccine doses have been administered
In a recent report issued by the World Bank, the Syrian economy is expected to shrink by 2.3% as a result of the devastating Earthquake that hit the country in February. It has exacerbated the already dire consequences of the 12-year war which has impaled the country. As such, it is expected to cost the Syrian economy 5.3 billion USD, including physical damages of $3.7 billion and losses of $1.5 billion. Reconstruction will cost about 8 billion USD spread over three years. Given such numbers, there are assumptions that the Syrian economy might even contract by 5.5%. The worst-hit sectors in Syria include housing, followed by transport, environment and agriculture, according to the bank's Syria Earthquake 2023 Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment. Nevertheless, the UN and its partners continue to ramp up relief deliveries to earthquake-ravaged regions in Syria. According to OCHA, 937 trucks carrying aid from seven UN agencies have crossed into northwest Syria from Turkey since the devastating February 6 earthquakes. Additionally, there have been 34 cross-border, fact-finding missions to northwest Syria to assess people’s needs and coordinate the humanitarian response.
Although Syria is in an arduous position due to the compounding challenges and crises, there appears to be some positive developments coming its way. During a conference held in Brussels on March 20, the international community secured close to EUR 1 billion in grants aimed at providing support to Syria. The funding will be used “to help meet humanitarian needs and support early recovery and resilience.” At the government level, authorities are preparing to put three power turbines into operation, although acute shortages of natural gas and fuel will continue to limit the potential for increased electricity production. To allow Syria to meet its energy needs Syrian President Bashar al-Assad travelled to Moscow, where he declared that both countries will sign 40 “specific investment projects” related to energy, electricity, oil, transport, housing, industry and other sectors.
Cyprus
Lebanon's interim Prime Minister Najib Mikati and Cyprus President Nikos Christodoulides share talks about improving common relations. Photo credit: https://www.plenglish.com/
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
Confirmed cases: 653,667
Deaths: 1,341
As of 4 February 2023, a total of 1,858,220 vaccine doses have been administered.
Despite the pessimistic outlook on the global economy and the anticipated decline in growth in the next 12 months, the European Stability Mechanism's Wim Van Aken and International Monetary Fund's Wojciech Maliszewski, heads of the respective institutions' missions in Cyprus, expressed their satisfaction with the performance of the Cypriot economy in a meeting with Finance Minister Makis Keravnos. They pinpointed the necessity to continue to implement prudent fiscal policy to address the challenges ahead, and stressed that the recent upgrade of the Republic of Cyprus' credit rating by Fitch demonstrates the good management of the economy. What allowed the country to maintain a good economic standing is its close relations with neighboring countries. To that end, Cyprus is seeking to improve bilateral relations with Lebanon, so that to boost its own economy. As such, delegations from both sides convened to discuss ways to develop relations across various sectors. According to the Lebanese cabinet, the Lebanese delegation, headed by PM Najib Mikati, highlighted in the meeting the closeness between the two countries and the possibility of moving forward in several sectors including tourism and services. Such a strategy in combining its resilient economy with that of friendly nations, is allowing to reap even more rewards.
2. THE REFUGEE SITUATION
Egypt
· During a meeting between Minister of Foreign Affairs Sameh Shokry and Commissioner for Promoting European Way of Life Margaritis Schinas, the two discussed how to best deal with illegal migration. Mr Samer Sokhry pointed out that his country is overburdened by the sheer number of refugees within its land. Mrs Margaritis on the on the other hand thanked him for his country’s efforts and vowed to provide additional support.[1]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 661,854 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of March.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for March, are distributed as follows:
197,142 in Amman Governorate (29.8 %)
169,077 in Mafraq Governorate (25.6%)
130,110 in Irbid Governorate (19.7%)
98,090 in Zarqa Governorate (14.8%)
17,311 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
13,122 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
8,643 in Jarash Governorate (1.3%)
8,435 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
8,245 in Maan Governorate (1.2%)
5,919 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
3,791 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
1,487 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
· According to a study conducted by the UNHCR Jordan and the World Bank, 66% of refugees live below $5.5 per person per day.[2]
· The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) in Jordan marked the successful completion of a three-month food assistance program for 53,000 Syrian refugees living in camps, made possible thanks to the King Salman Humanitarian Aid and Relief Centre's (KSrelief’s) donation of $6 million.[3]
Iraq
The UNHCR states that there are currently 260,341 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of March, are distributed as follows:
126,595 in Erbil (48.6%)
83,702 in Dahuk (32.2%)
34,364 in Sulaymaniyah (13.2%)
1,507 in Anbar (0.6%)
14,173 in other areas (5.4%)[4]
· The United Nations World Food Programme (WFP) announced that due to funding shortfalls it will not be able to continue providing monthly food assistance to 137,000 Internally Displaced People (IDPs) who were being served by WFP in 27 camps. In addition, according to the current funding situation assistance to 38,000 Syrian refugees in 10 camps will seize by July 2023.[5]
· UNFPA Iraq and Viber have officially launched a social media awareness campaign to promote information-sharing on early marriage in Iraq. The campaign seeks to engage young people in an easy and interactive approach, providing them with the necessary knowledge and information to make informed choices about their lives.[6]
Lebanon
[For the month of March, statistics were not updated by the UNHCR]
Since January, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 814,715.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
318,713 in Bekaa (39.1%)
226,508 in North Lebanon (27.8%)
180,120 in Beirut (22.1%)
89,374 in South Lebanon (11.0%)[7]
· The UNHCR warned that as the displacement of Syrian refugees drags on and host countries struggle with multiple crises, they are slipping further into poverty.[8]
· CARE International warned during this month that the acute economic crisis in the country is forcing families to skip meals.[9]
· Lebanese official during March, have called for the repatriation of Syrian refugees as the country cannot tolerate such a burden anymore. As a result, the officials were either criticized by humanitarian organizations or praised by citizens.[10]
· Kuwait’s Al-Najat Charity has celebrated the advent of Ramadan by distributing iftar meals among Syrian refugees in camps near the border in northeastern Lebanon. [11]
Syria
· Qatar Red Crescent Society (QRCS) is planning to launch a project in Northern Syria which will be comprised of a model residential village of 300 homes for the earthquake-affected families.[12]
· A new town housing 500 Syrian families, who have been forced to live in tents and other informal accommodation due to last month’s earthquake and the 12 years of conflict, has been opened by Action For Humanity, the parent charity of Syria Relief.[13]
· According to Oxfam three in every four people in Aleppo have had to reduce daily meals since the earthquake and nearly all of them say they have taken on extra debt or their children out of school in order to cope. [14]
· Qatar Charity (QC) started to deliver a new batch of urgent relief assistance to those affected by the earthquake in northern Syria. The aid funded by Eid Charity is expected to benefit 5,750 people in northwestern Syria.[15]
· Baitulmaal, a Dallas-based international humanitarian nonprofit, recently completed the distribution of emergency food, water and supplies to 425 families displaced by earthquakes and flooding in northern Syria.[16]
Cyprus
· According to DW, the number of refugees who applied for asylum in Cyprus doubled in 2022. The republic receives the highest number of asylum seekers relative to its population anywhere in the EU.[17]
[1] Egypt Today, March 26, 2023, https://www.egypttoday.com/Article/1/123371/Egyptian-FM-European-commissioner-confer-over-illegal-migration-economic-cooperation
[2] OCHA, Mar 13, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/poverty-measurement-refugees-jordan
[3]OCHA, March 21, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/jordan/more-53000-vulnerable-refugees-assisted-wfp-jordan-thanks-ksreliefs-2022-financial-support-enar
[4] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[5] OCHA, Mar 21, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/funding-shortfall-forces-wfp-iraq-reduce-life-saving-food-and-cash-assistance-displaced-iraqis-and-syrian-refugees-enar
[6] OCHA, Mar 16, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/unfpa-teams-viber-raise-awareness-early-marriage-and-facilitate-information-sharing
[7] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[8] OCHA, March 15,2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/twelve-years-syrian-refugees-face-deepening-debt-and-hunger
[9] OCHA, Mar 3, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/lebanon-acute-economic-crisis-forces-families-skip-meals
[10] Arab News, March 21, 2023, https://www.arabnews.com/node/2272601/middle-east
[11] Arab News, March 23, 2023, https://www.arabnews.com/node/2274486/middle-east
[12] OCHA, Mar 25, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/qrcs-launch-shelter-projects-43000-beneficiaries-6-countries-enar
[13] OCHA, Mar 24, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/charity-opens-new-town-3000-syrians-made-homeless-earthquake-and-conflict-named-after-child-killed-earthquake
[14] OCHA, March 23, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/almost-three-quarters-displaced-syrians-surveyed-aleppo-say-they-are-having-skip-meal-every-day-earthquake
[15]OCHA, Mar 22, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/qatar-charity-delivers-aid-earthquake-victims-northern-syria
[16] OCHA, Mar 20, 2023. https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/displaced-syrian-families-receive-aid-after-earthquakes-floods
[17] DW, 03/03/2023, https://www.dw.com/en/number-of-asylum-seekers-in-cyprus-doubles/video-64811889