Suppression of the Truth?
Middle East Socioeconomic Overview
Report: November 2023
Gaza was being bombed without mercy to its inhabitants. Photo credit: The New Humanitarian.
1. Table of Acronyms
2. Introduction
As the war is grounded to a halt for the sake of exchanging hostages, one cannot but help and wonder about the countless casualties that forced both sides to this decision. Media cover ups and the distortion of the truth were being exercised on a daily basis and therefore failed miserably. After all, one cannot suppress news of sheer brutality which has made its way to TV screens and social media accounts of many westerns thus prompting a just reaction. Nevertheless, more blatant lies are being spewed publicly and people are becoming ever so confused about the reality of the matter. What is even sadder is that all who have perished are nothing but pawns of a political game orchestrated by those who are in power and those who are inspired by greed and influence. So far, several theories have emanated about the rationale behind the destructive and violent bombings of Gaza, but none of them succeed in defining the whole picture. Arguably, most of these theories can be correct simultaneously. However, one thing is for certain, there is truly something evil behind these sequence of events that will define world history forever.
3. The Socio-Economic Situation
Egypt
Hotels, banks, and offices on the Nile River in Cairo. (Reuters)
To mitigate the effects of the Gaza war on the Egyptian economy, the IMF is reportedly considering to augment the previously agreed upon 3 billion USD loan. In this way, the organization can buffer the country from any spillover that can result from the escalation and prevent the Egyptian economy from sinking any deeper. Similarly the EU seems in a hurry to contain the situation. This was evident during the visit to Egypt by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in mid November, during which she advanced efforts to support Egypt’s economic development and revised plans with the Egyptian president to cushion the impact of the ongoing crisis. However, a lot more has to be done to prevent the weakening of Egypt’s economy, especialy after Moody’s downgrade of the economy which scared away potential investors. To make matters worse, Global rating agency S&P also degraded country citing the escalation in Gaza as the leading the cause. In other words, how is Egypt supposed to maneuver passt these downgrades when it had tiresly worked to improve its economy by focusing on attracting foreign investment? Certainly, a change in approach is needed, especially when bankers and analysts are warning that Egypt's struggling economy faces new risks as [Israel]'s war on Gaza threatens to disrupt tourism bookings and natural gas imports.
Despite the misfortune of the situation there seems to be a few signs of a silver lining. Released in November, official data from the state-run Central Agency for Public Mobilisation and Statistics (CAPMAS) demonstrated that Egypt's annual inflation rates dropped in October compared to the month before, despite an ongoing economic crisis in the country. As such, it reported that the annual headline urban consumer inflation rate fell in October to 35.8 percent, down from 38 percent the previous month. This meant that the prices of essentials like grains, bread, fruit and vegetables had all fallen, while the prices of other goods remained stable. On the energy front, Egypt announced plans to start licensing a pipeline of green hydrogen projects whose total cost of investments is estimated at $83 billion. Egypt also intends to resume liquefied natural gas exports, which generated $8.4 billion in revenues in 2022 compared with $3.5 billion in 2021 and is advancing oil and gas exploration with new licensing rounds. Moreover, Egypt is continuing to accelerate the expansion of the Suez Canal with revenues projected at $8.8 billion for the current fiscal year.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 516,023
-Deaths: 24,830
-As of 20 May 2023, a total of 112,673,535 vaccine doses have been administered.
Jordan
Jordanian PM Bisher Khasawneh has warned [Israel] that it will consider any attempt to push Palestinians into Jordan as a breach of its peace accord with [Tel Aviv] (Getty).
As a result of increasing military operations in the West Bank, Jordan mobilized its armed forces on its borders with Palestine. As tensions rise between Amman and [Tel Aviv] due to fears of pushing the Palestinians into Jordaninan territories, many economists and politicians cannot help but wonder where all this is headed. So far the Jordanian economy was able to overcome several hurdles that were cast upon it by the COVID-19 and the Ukrainian-Russian war. However, the slightest spillover from the war happening on the territories of its neighbor can send investors and would-be investors running away from the country. This is especially detrimental when the Kingdom has worked hard to undertake economic reforms that aim to attract foreign investment and streamline their integration within the Jordanian economy. Already, Jordan is diplomatically locking horns with the occupant through its interventions in the UN and Arab League and its attempts to persuade Western states to apply pressure on the occupant. Furthermore, the Kingdom declared that it will not sign an energy exchange deal with the occupant, not before ‘it ends its barbarism in Gaza’. From his end, His Majesty King Abdullah is doubeling down on projects and programs to make sure that the country is ready to face any upcoming developments. For instance, he prioritized the construction of al Aqaba-Amman Water Desalination and Conveyance Project as part of his vision to improve services. Moreover, he stressed the importance of imlementing the Economic Modernisation Vision (EMV).
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 1,746,997
-Deaths: 14,122
-As of 20 August 2022, a total of 10,057,975 vaccine doses have been administered.
Iraq
Central Bank of Iraq Logo. Photo credit: NewArab.com
During the month of November, Iraq was able to achieve some economic advancements that would benefit the country in the long term and give it the possibility to diversify its economy. For instance, it was able to hold constructive meetings with the Armenian government over the proposed cooperation in economy, trade, IT, energy, water resources, and tourism. According to Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and the President of the Republic of Iraq, Abd Al-Latif Jamal Rashid, increasing the cooperation between the two countries is necessary to face the mounting regional challenges that are threatening the stability of both countries. Another positive development is the joining of Iraq the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) after applying to do so back in 2018. Currenly, the bank is in the process of establishing a presence in Iraq, so that it can begin its works that include advising, reform, and investment attracting. In terms of foreign currency which the country needs, Iraq's Central Bank (CBI) struck deals with foreign nations to support Iraqi private banks in foreign currencies, coinciding with lawmakers' no-confidence efforts against ICB's governor amid currency pressure from the US dollar. As such, CBI and US officials have reached a deal to strengthen the reserves of 10 Iraqi banks with the US dollar after detailed discussions in Abu Dhabi. Also, CBI also made serious negotiations to enhance Iraqi bank balances in Euros, as more banks are reinforcing their balances in the Chinese Yuan and Indian Rupees for Iraqi banks, signalling a strategic move to finance imports, especially in pharmaceuticals and food items.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 2,465,545
-Deaths: 25,375
-As of 1 January 2023, a total of 19,557,364 vaccine doses have been administered.
Lebanon
The situation in the South is indeed alarming for the Lebanese economy. Photo credit: AFP.
The conflict on the Lebanese border which emenated from the violence in Gaza, had detrimental concequences on Lebanon. According to Beirut-based research firm Information International, economic activity in Lebanon has declined by 25 percent, affecting all sectors, especially tourism. Moreover, the number of departures and arrivals have decreased due to decreased demand on flights. Afterall, there are security concerns and many countries have called for their citizens who live in Lebanon to leave the country. Also Lebanese expats residing abroad are concerned about the volatility of the situation and losing the ability to return to the country of residence should a war breakout. The end result, is the tourism sector losing thousands of reservations which will take the country 6 months to recover. Moreover, there was a subsequent decrease for the demand for fuel, clothing, and electronics which declined between 25% and 90%. The agricultural sector also suffered; According to the caretaker Environment minister, the incendiary strikes using white phosphorus have burned 460 hectares of forests and orchards. Additionally, according to the director of the University of Balamad’s Land and Natural Resources Program, the shelling has destroyed 20,000 olive trees and caused an estimated $20 million in direct economic losses.
Despite the bleakness of the situation and the several difficulties, Lebanese politicians have yet to succeed in making any noticeable progress in terms of implementing reforms that limit the deterioration and help return the economy to growth. Currently state institutions are crumbeling and structural reforms are desperately needed should they wish the economy to survive. To numerically understand the gravity of the situation, one should take a look at the foreign currency reserves which have been depleted over the courser of 4 years. In other words, the reserves which were estimated at 34.73 billion dollars in mid-October 2019, dropped down to $8.7 billion in mid-October 2023.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 1,239,904
-Deaths: 10,947
-As of 21 December 2022, a total of 5,814,699 vaccine doses have been administered.
Palestine
Two boys on a pile debris that used to be their home. Photo credit: Anadolu Agency.
After the city of Gaza has been decimated by indiscriminate bombing, the number of casualties have increased to over 15,000 innocent lives while about 7,000 civilians remain missing. What’s even sadder is the fact that the death toll included 6,150 children and 4,000 women in addition to untold numbers of corpses scattered in the streets. According to the Gaza-based Government Media Office, more than 36,000 other Palestinians were also injured, 75% of them children and women. As for the level of destruction, in terms of residential building alone, nearly 50,000 house units were completely destroyed and nearly 240,000 house units were severely damaged. Also, a total of 88 mosques were completely destroyed and 174 others partially destroyed by [Israeli] bombing across Gaza in addition to three churches targeted by the [Israeli] army. In a latest report issued by OCHA, 279 educational facilities had reportedly been damaged, more than 51% of the total, with none of Gaza's 625,000 students able to access education. As for the health sector, most of Gaza’s hospital stopped working due to fuel and medicine shortages and because of IDF targeting of hospital vicinities. Nevertheless, the cease fire which was implemented in the city along with the humanitarian aid that made into Gaza, allowed medical facilities to resume health care services. As of 28 November, five hospitals in Northern Gaza resumed partial operations after being completely shut down around 21st of November. This is considered an improvement to the earlier disturbing reports of having 75% of hospitals and medical centers shut down throughout the entire city due to heinous bombing before the cease fire. Although the truce, has paved the way for aid to pass through, various organizations are claiming that they are “just a drop of water in vast sea” and the occupant forces are not making it easy for the aid to reach residents in Gaza. As of the 30th of November, the truce still holds in hopes of releasing more hostages. Hopefully, there will be a permanent ceasefire and a roadmap for a lasting peace will be implemented. However, judging by the identity of the group of individuals running the show, peace would only be wishful thinking.
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 703,228
-Deaths: 5,708
-As of 17 October 2022, a total of 3,748,571 vaccine doses have been administered
Syria
Between collapse and economic recovery. Only time will tell. Photo credit: Financial Times.
As electricity shortages have hampered water pump operations across the country, and tap water quality has sharply declined due to conflict-related damage to water infrastructure, The Syrian government has decided to increase the price of bottled water produced by 74 percent. This is the third price hike of bottled water produced by state-owned factories this year, thus further challenging Syrian’s ability to afford such a basic necessity. The news came during a period of time when the Syrian Trade Establishment declared profits worth SYP 33 billion in the first ten months of 2023, triggering criticism among Syrians grappling with rising prices of essential goods. As such, there is a growing feeling of anguish among citizens as there are no policies in place that would aim to deter the crushing weight of the economic stagnation. Already, inflation has reached dire levels in the country (84.9%), compared to an average of 5.1 percent in the rest of Arab countries and 8.5 percent recorded globally. The hike in prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages contributed to the rise in pricing in other sectors such as housing, electricity and gas category, then transportation and health. To justify the increase in prices and the revenue which is being made trade-wise, the Syrian government released the total number of funds spent of reconstruction efforts and the required budget to carry out additional reconstruction efforts in the future. Yet, some emphasized that conditions are excessively difficult and some kind of policies should be put in place to protect the average consumer. Unfortunately, poverty is still on the rise especially in areas where ISIS is still present and where it is extorting locals for sums of money.
On the plus side, Syria was able to score a few achievements. The National Islamic Bank has officially started its operations in Syria, becoming the first new bank to start operations since the beginning of the uprising in 2011. Hopefully, with the normalization with the rest of the Arab states still in the process, this can be a start for other similar endeavors. At the state-to-state bilateral level, Syria and Russia have signed an agreement to strengthen economic cooperation and bolster joint investments. On October 28 and 29, the Joint Syrian-Russian Intergovernmental Committee for Scientific, Technical, Commercial, and Economic Cooperation met in Moscow to ink the deal focusing on infrastructure development (including transportation and public works) and the agricultural, industrial, and pharmaceutical sectors. Although the impact of this agreement remains to be seen, Russia has had an impressive track record in shoring up its investments in the country. In a related development, China granted the Syrian Telecommunications Company with the required sum of money and communications equipment allowing it to begin improving the country’s telephone and internet infrastructure. This is highly needed should the Syria government want to attract foreign investments.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 57,423
-Deaths: 3,163
-As of 15 January 2023, a total of 5,090,630 vaccine doses have been administered
Cyprus
Energy Minister George Papanastasiou. Photo credit: https://cyprus-mail.com/.
According to the Economics Research Center (ERC) at the University of Cyprus, the events in Gaza also impacted the state of Cyprus’s economy. Due to the geographical promixaty to the affected area, Cyprus’s Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) index reached an estimated 256.63, compared to its September value of 202.84. The center also noted that the number might increase depending on how the war develops. Nevertheless, Cyprus is continuing to shore up its capabilities to become resistant to external change. For instance, the government is attempting to boost SMEs to become bigger contributors to the economy. According to Energy Minister George Papanastasiou the ultimate objective is to foster a robust, flexible, smart, and technologically advanced industry, contributing significantly to the growth and competitiveness. Moreover, the industry is ought to provide more job prospects for many of the Island’s inhabitants. Already, the country’s statistical office (CyStat) registered a 17.4% decrease in unemployed people. As such, the SME endevor will definitely be a positive step forward in that direction. Moreover, the construction sector is also showing impressive results. Cyprus Land and Building Developers Association (LBDA) president Michalis Hadjipanayiotou Lauded the local property sector’s robustness, reflected in its ability to navigate numerous challenges, while continuing to contribute to the country’s economic growth. The success of the sector is because of injecting of foreign investment into the country as well as the improvement of living conditions. Assistant
---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
According to the WHO, Corona cases, deaths, and vaccinations are reported as follows:
-Confirmed cases: 660,854
-Deaths: 1,364
-As of 10 June 2023, a total of 1,858,908 vaccine doses have been administered
4. The Humanitarian Situation
Egypt
President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi once again categorically rejected a forced resettlement as the idea is generating fury among Egyptians.[1]
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was in Egypt to see the humanitarian aid operations first-hand, hand over EU humanitarian supplies for civilians in Gaza and discuss the crisis with regional leaders.[2]
The General Authority for Crossings and Borders in Gaza confirmed that the aid entering Gaza does not meet the needs of the Strip and does not reach what was hoped for and that there are major obstacles at the Rafah crossing, including the lack of trucks.[3]
Jordan
The UNHCR states that there are currently 652,842 registered refugees in Jordan up until the beginning of November.
The proportion of Syrian displaced people registered within the UNHCR for November, are distributed as follows:
-193,818 in Amman Governorate (29.7 %)
-169,191 in Mafraq Governorate (25.9%)
-127,148 in Irbid Governorate (19.5%)
-96,909 in Zarqa Governorate (14.8%)
-16,732 in Balqa Governorate (2.6%)
-12,756 in Madaba Governorate (2%)
-8,481 in Jarash Governorate (1.3%)
-8,206 in Karak Governorate (1.3%)
-8,208 in Maan Governorate (1.3%)
-5,714 in Ajlun Governorate (0.9%)
-3,759 in Aqaba Governorate (0.6%)
-1,409 in Tafilah Governorate (0.2%)
-511 in other (0.1%)
The Jordan Civil Society Network for Displacement (JCSND) announced a pledge under the UN Global Refugee Forum 2023 to leverage the socioeconomic welfare of refugee populations and host communities across the Kingdom.[4]
Japan allocated medical aid equipment for Palestinians to boost the quality of services at the medical center in the Hitten Palestinian refugee camp.[5]
Iraq
[The below section regarding the statistics has not been updated by UNHCR Iraq for the Month of November.]
The UNHCR states that there are currently 298,002 registered Syrian refugees in Iraq.
The proportion of displaced Syrian people registered within the UNHCR up until the beginning of October, are distributed as follows:
-141,617 in Erbil (47.5%)
-74,056 in Dahuk (24.9%)
-38,329 in Sulaymaniyah (12.9%)
-18,199 in Ninewa (6.1%)
-15,298 in Baghdad (5.1%)
-2,095 in Kirkuk (0.7%)
-1,621 in Anbar (0.5%)
-5,004 in other areas (1.9%)[6]
Five years after our first efforts to restore people’s access to medical services in Sinuni district, in Iraq’s Ninewa governorate, Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF) has handed over our medical activities in the Sinuni General Hospital to the Ninewa Directorate of Health and to another humanitarian organization.[7]
The United Nations World Food Program (WFP) congratulated 753 graduates of the WFP Jousour program which aimes to enhance the employability of internally displaced and vulnerable Iraqis as well as Syrian refugees by providing them with digital and English language skills.[8]
Lebanon
[The below section regarding the statistics has not been updated by UNHCR Iraq for the Month of November.]
Since the beginning of October, the number of registered Syrian refugees in Lebanon is 789,842.
Refugees in Lebanon are distributed as follows:
-302,253 in Bekaa (38.3%)
-222,239 in North Lebanon (28.1%)
-176,182 in Beirut (22.3%)
-89,168 in South Lebanon (11.3%)[9]
As of 21 November, 55,491 individuals (52% females) have been displaced from south Lebanon due to the ongoing hostilities along the Blue Line.
As of 21 November, the Lebanese Ministry of Public Health (MoPH) has reported a total of 85 killed and 357 people wounded due to armed clashes at the border with [Israel]. This number includes both combatants and civilians with at least 13 confirmed civilian deaths.
To support the humanitarian response, the Lebanon Humanitarian Fund (LHF) launched its first reserve allocation 2023 that includes up to $4M to support partners to pre-position and respond to the needs of those displaced or remaining in conflict zones.[10]
Syria
The SRTF announced the delivery of the first batch of dry yeast of 27,700 MT (out of procured amount of 100 MT), to the Implementing Entity, under its Food Security project, “Complementary Project for Enhancing Food Security in the North of Aleppo Governorate – Phase VI”[11]
Qatar Charity in cooperation with Qatar Fund for Development (QFFD), distributed tents and winter essentials to the affected in several camps in northwest Syria. This comes as part of Qatar Charity and QFFD’s efforts to support internally displaced persons (IDPs) who lost their homes due to the Turkey- Syria earthquake that occurred in February this year.[12]
The EU Commission has announced €11.5 million in humanitarian aid for the most vulnerable people in Syria.[13]
The SRTF announced the delivery of five tractors under its Agriculture intervention, “Agricultural Support to Farmers in Ar-Raqqa Governorate – Phase VII”.[14]
The SRTF announced the delivery of medication to the Implementing Entity under its Health project; "Rehabilitation of a Medical Facility and Support for Two Health Facilities in Northern Aleppo".[15]
The SRTF announced the harvest of 20,974 MT of a variety of vegetables by 2,000 vegetable farmers under its Agriculture project, “Support Farmers for the Production of Wheat and Vegetable Crops in Northern Aleppo”.[16]
Cyprus
[1] New Arab, Nov. 7, 2023, https://www.newarab.com/analysis/egypt-pushing-back-against-[israels]-gaza-refugee-plans
[2] EU Commission, November 20, 2023, https://commission.europa.eu/news/president-von-der-leyen-egypt-and-jordan-deliver-humanitarian-aid-civilians-gaza-and-announce-more-2023-11-20_en
[3] Almayadeen, Nov. 25, 2023, https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/gaza-crossings-authority-says-aid-that-entered-strip--not-en
[4] Jordan Times, Nov. 27, 2023, https://www.jordantimes.com/news/local/jcsnd-announces-pledge-launch-paper-socioeconomic-welfare-refugees-host-communities
[5] Arab News, November 28, 2023, https://www.arabnews.com/node/2416251/middle-east
[6] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/5
[7] OCHA, Nov 2, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/msf-hands-over-medical-activities-sinuni-general-hospital-sinjar-enar
[8] OCHA, Nov. 26, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/iraq/graduation-employment-celebrating-graduates-wfps-jousour-programme-iraq-enar
[9] https://data2.unhcr.org/en/situations/syria/location/71
[10] OCHA, Nov. 26, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/lebanon/lebanon-flash-update-2-escalation-hostilities-south-lebanon-25-november-2023
[11] OCHA, Nov. 27, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-food-security-project-delivers-its-first-batch-dry-yeast-northern-aleppo
[12] OCHA, Nov. 27, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/qatar-charity-distributes-winter-essentials-syrian-idps
[13] OCHA, Nov. 24, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/eu-releases-eu15-million-humanitarian-aid-most-vulnerable-syria-and-lebanon
[14] OCHA, Nov. 22, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-agriculture-intervention-delivers-five-tractors-ar-raqqa
[15] OCHA, Nov. 19, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/srtf-health-project-delivers-medication-northern-aleppo
[16] OCHA, Nov. 9, 2023, https://reliefweb.int/report/syrian-arab-republic/farmers-reap-abundant-harvest-various-vegetables-under-srtf-agriculture-project-northern-aleppo
[17] CGTN, Nov. 27, 2023, https://newseu.cgtn.com/news/2023-11-27/Cyprus-ready-to-ship-aid-to-Gaza-but-safety-guarantees-are-needed-1p3hzOOPle0/index.html
[18] Aljazeera, Nov. 1, 2023, https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/10/30/cyprus-braces-for-refugee-arrivals-amid-lebanon-war-fears